Line Tracker

Target parlays: Today

The combination of Kalshi legs most likely to reach each payout. Heavy-favorite moneylines are included when they help.

2x4-leg parlay EV+6.1%

Under 84.5 NCAAF · CSU @ TXST79¢ · 82%
Under 8.5 NHL · NYI @ OTT86¢ · 89%
TOR +18.5 NBA · TOR @ NYK86¢ · 88%
Under 11.5 MLB · MIL @ LAD81¢ · 83%

Pays2.02x

Model hits53%

$10 returns$20.15

Why these bets

Under 84.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV +2.2%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 84.5 vs the book's 70.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 64.9 combined vs the book's 70.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 63.5, now 70.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 70.5 (Over -111 / Under -105).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 11.5 vs the book's 7.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 7.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 7.5 (Over -113 / Under +101).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.2-2.7) · Away 9-1 (4.5-2.7)
Head to head: 3-13 (avg margin -1.3)
Rest: Home 1d rest · Away 1d rest

3x7-leg parlay EV+5.4%

CSU +27.5 NCAAF · CSU @ TXST77¢ · 79%
Under 8.5 NHL · NYI @ OTT86¢ · 89%
TOR +18.5 NBA · TOR @ NYK86¢ · 88%
Under 11.5 MLB · MIL @ LAD81¢ · 83%
Under 8.5 NHL · PHI @ DET85¢ · 86%
Over 3.5 NHL · SJ @ NSH88¢ · 89%
Over 3.5 NHL · CGY @ VGK88¢ · 88%

Pays3.05x

Model hits35%

$10 returns$30.53

Why these bets

CSU +27.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price: Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 77¢ (EV +1.5%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: CSU +27.5 vs the book's +14.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +9.5, now +14.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: CSU +15, vs +14.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 11.5 vs the book's 7.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 7.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 7.5 (Over -113 / Under +101).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.2-2.7) · Away 9-1 (4.5-2.7)
Head to head: 3-13 (avg margin -1.3)
Rest: Home 1d rest · Away 1d rest

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -116 / Under +104).
Goalies: PHI goalie unconfirmed; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: PHI: Dan Vladar, expected, #1 goalie, 0.875 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%

Over 3.5 · SJ @ NSH

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over +103 / Under -116).
Form L10: Home 3-7 (2.5-3.2) · Away 5-5 (3.0-3.5)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 1.9d rest
Starters: SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.896 SV% | NSH: Juuse Saros, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.897 SV%

Over 3.5 · CGY @ VGK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.5%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 97% of bets are on this side (money 97%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over +106 / Under -119).
Form L10: Home 8-2 (4.0-2.3) · Away 3-7 (2.1-3.8)
Head to head: 3-1 (avg margin +1.8)
Rest: Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: CGY: Dustin Wolf, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.839 SV% | VGK: Carter Hart, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.906 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Parker Wotherspoon D (Out)

4x7-leg parlay EV+3.5%

Under 84.5 NCAAF · CSU @ TXST79¢ · 82%
Under 8.5 NHL · NYI @ OTT86¢ · 89%
TOR +18.5 NBA · TOR @ NYK86¢ · 88%
Under 11.5 MLB · MIL @ LAD81¢ · 83%
OKC ML NBA · OKC @ HOU60¢ · 61%
Over 3.5 NHL · SJ @ NSH88¢ · 89%
Over 3.5 NHL · UTA @ EDM91¢ · 91%

Pays4.02x

Model hits26%

$10 returns$40.21

Why these bets

Under 84.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV +2.2%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 84.5 vs the book's 70.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 64.9 combined vs the book's 70.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 63.5, now 70.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 70.5 (Over -111 / Under -105).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 11.5 vs the book's 7.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 7.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 7.5 (Over -113 / Under +101).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.2-2.7) · Away 9-1 (4.5-2.7)
Head to head: 3-13 (avg margin -1.3)
Rest: Home 1d rest · Away 1d rest

OKC ML · OKC @ HOU

Price: Model gives it 61%; Kalshi charges 60¢ (EV -1.2%, priced against you).
Favorite: The betting market makes OKC about 61% to win.
Form L10: Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head: 1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Over 3.5 · SJ @ NSH

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over +103 / Under -116).
Form L10: Home 3-7 (2.5-3.2) · Away 5-5 (3.0-3.5)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 1.9d rest
Starters: SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.896 SV% | NSH: Juuse Saros, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.897 SV%

Over 3.5 · UTA @ EDM

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 96% of bets are on this side (money 97%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -116 / Under +103).
Goalies: EDM backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (4.1-2.4) · Away 6-4 (3.6-3.1)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest: Home 1.9d rest, road game #3 · Away 2d rest
Starters: UTA: Karel Vejmelka, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.895 SV% | EDM: Devon Levi, confirmed, backup, 0.903 SV%
Signals: reverse_line_move

Games, best to worst

Positive EV only

#1 NCAAF CIT @ TA&M Sat 10:00 AM

CIT +57.5

Best spread · book line CIT +45.5

EV+5.0%

Model85%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score20.0

Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 56.585% · 88¢ · EV -4.1%

Bets

Money

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV +5.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: CIT +57.5 vs the book's +45.5: 12 extra points.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (29.9-19.4) · Away 3-7 (21.0-31.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line: +27.5 (EV +106.4%)

#2 NCAAF CCH @ CLEM Sat 09:00 AM

CCH +54.5

Best spread · book line CCH +43

EV+2.8%

Model86%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score11.8

Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 57.585% · 88¢ · EV -3.7%

Bets

27%

Money

18%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV +2.8%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: CCH +54.5 vs the book's +43: 11.5 extra points.
Line move: Opened +43.5, now +43 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 7-3 (25.9-22.8) · Away 6-4 (22.8-17.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: +27.5 (EV +73.9%)

#1 NCAAF CSU @ TXST Thu 05:00 PM

Over 54.5

Best total · book line Over 70.5

EV-2.1%

Model83%

Price84¢

Pays1.18x

Score10.8

Best spreadCSU +27.5book CSU +14.579% · 77¢ · EV +1.5%

Bets

41%

Money

69%

Reverse line moveSharp money +28Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 54.5 vs the book's 70.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 64.9 combined vs the book's 70.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money: 69% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 63.5, now 70.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 70.5 (Over -111 / Under -105).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 48.5 (EV -0.7%)

#3 NCAAF WSU @ ORST Sat 03:00 PM

WSU +30.5

Best spread · book line WSU +18

EV+1.5%

Model81%

Price79¢

Pays1.25x

Score10.0

Best totalUnder 67.5book Under 52.584% · 84¢ · EV -0.6%

Bets

31%

Money

39%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV +1.5%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: WSU +30.5 vs the book's +18: 12.5 extra points.
Line move: Opened +13.5, now +18.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (30.0-22.3) · Away 3-7 (19.8-18.7)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -10.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7.9d rest
Best-value line: -4.5 (EV +71.0%)

#2 NHL NYI @ OTT Thu 04:00 PM

Under 8.5

Best total · book line Under 5.5

EV+2.1%

Model89%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score9.0

Bets

Money

Pinnacle-basedNYI backup goalie

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)
Best-value line: 2.5 (EV +94.7%)

#4 NCAAF NIU @ WYO Sat 12:30 PM

NIU +20.5

Best spread · book line NIU +7.5

EV-1.1%

Model80%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score7.1

Best totalUnder 55.5book Under 40.583% · 86¢ · EV -4.9%

Bets

37%

Money

60%

Sharp money +23

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: NIU +20.5 vs the book's +7.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money: 60% of the money on 37% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (11.1-21.1) · Away 2-8 (18.1-29.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Best-value line: -14.5 (EV +90.9%)

#1 NFL ARI @ LA Sun 01:05 PM

ARI +23.5

Best spread · book line ARI +12.5

EV-1.3%

Model80%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score6.4

Best totalOver 37.5book Over 51.586% · 87¢ · EV -1.9%

Bets

35%

Money

48%

Reverse line moveSharp money +13

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: ARI +23.5 vs the book's +12.5: 11 extra points.
Sharp money: 48% of the money on 35% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +13.5, now +12.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (30.3-25.6) · Away 1-9 (19.8-34.7)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +22.5)
Rest: Home 5.8d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -3.5 (EV +45.6%)

#3 NBA TOR @ NYK Thu 04:30 PM

TOR +18.5

Best spread · book line TOR +5.5

EV+1.0%

Model88%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score5.6

Best totalUnder 241.5book Under 226.580% · 83¢ · EV -5.1%

Bets

49%

Money

52%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a
Best-value line: +3.5 (EV +6.0%)

#5 NCAAF OKST @ HOU Sat 04:30 PM

Under 78.5

Best total · book line Under 62.5

EV+2.2%

Model86%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score5.1

Best spreadOKST +16.5book OKST +4.576% · 79¢ · EV -4.8%

Bets

60%

Money

53%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV +2.2%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 78.5 vs the book's 62.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 53 combined vs the book's 62.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 57.5, now 62.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (35.0-22.8) · Away 4-6 (24.5-23.8)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +22.0)
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 84.5 (EV +4.3%)

#4 MLB MIL @ LAD Thu 05:00 PM

Under 11.5

Best total · book line Under 7.5

EV+0.6%

Model83%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score4.4

Best spreadLAD -1.5book LAD -1.540% · 40¢ · EV -4.8%

Bets

32%

Money

36%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 11.5 vs the book's 7.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 7.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 7.5 (Over -113 / Under +101).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.2-2.7) · Away 9-1 (4.5-2.7)
Head to head: 3-13 (avg margin -1.3)
Rest: Home 1d rest · Away 1d rest
Best-value line: 2.5 (EV +6.2%)

#6 NCAAF CHA @ TEM Sat 10:00 AM

CHA +33.5

Best spread · book line CHA +21

EV-2.7%

Model81%

Price82¢

Pays1.20x

Score3.8

Best totalUnder 62.5book Under 46.582% · 88¢ · EV -7.2%

Bets

47%

Money

66%

Reverse line moveSharp money +19

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: CHA +33.5 vs the book's +21: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 66% of the money on 47% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +23.5, now +21 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 2-8 (21.4-30.6) · Away 0-10 (12.8-39.1)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +35.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: +2.5 (EV +47.4%)

#1 NCAAF WASH @ PUR Fri 05:00 PM

WASH +16.5

Best spread · book line WASH +3.5

EV-0.4%

Model82%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score3.6

Best totalUnder 65.5book Under 50.582% · 85¢ · EV -4.9%

Bets

59%

Money

69%

Sharp money +10Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -0.4%, about fair).
Cushion: WASH +16.5 vs the book's +3.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money: 69% of the money on 59% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +1.5, now +3.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: WASH +3.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (23.5-34.8) · Away 5-5 (27.8-19.9)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -36.0)
Rest: Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -17.5 (EV +66.8%)

#2 NFL LAC @ KC Sun 01:25 PM

LAC +20.5

Best spread · book line LAC +8.5

EV+0.2%

Model83%

Price82¢

Pays1.20x

Score3.6

Best totalUnder 58.5book Under 42.589% · 90¢ · EV -1.9%

Bets

42%

Money

48%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.2%, about fair).
Cushion: LAC +20.5 vs the book's +8.5: 12 extra points.
Line move: Opened +2.5, now +8.5.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (20.3-20.4) · Away 3-7 (17.5-21.7)
Head to head: 0-2 (avg margin -4.5)
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Tre' Harris WR (Doubtful); Brenen Thompson WR (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -7.5 (EV +78.0%)

#5 NBA OKC @ HOU Thu 05:30 PM

HOU +16.5

Best spread · book line HOU +4.5

EV-1.9%

Model85%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score2.8

Best totalOver 209.5book Over 225.582% · 85¢ · EV -4.5%

Bets

47%

Money

68%

Sharp money +21

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.9%, priced against you).
Cushion: HOU +16.5 vs the book's +4.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 68% of the money on 47% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Form L10: Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head: 1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a
Best-value line: +20.5 (EV +1.9%)

#6 NHL PHI @ DET Thu 04:30 PM

Under 8.5

Best total · book line Under 5.5

EV+0.6%

Model86%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score2.6

Bets

Money

Pinnacle-basedPHI goalie unconfirmedDET backup goalie

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -116 / Under +104).
Goalies: PHI goalie unconfirmed; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: PHI: Dan Vladar, expected, #1 goalie, 0.875 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%
Best-value line: 2.5 (EV +64.2%)

#7 NCAAF ELO @ STAN Sat 04:30 PM

ELO +48.5

Best spread · book line ELO +35.5

EV+0.5%

Model89%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score1.8

Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 56.585% · 86¢ · EV -1.6%

Bets

Money

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV +0.5%, about fair).
Cushion: ELO +48.5 vs the book's +35.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +32.5, now +35.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (18.0-36.3) · Away 6-4 (28.6-19.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.2d rest
Best-value line: +16.5 (EV +74.3%)

#8 NCAAF KU @ KSU Sat 09:00 AM

Over 40.5

Best total · book line Over 55.5

EV–

Model82%

Price–

Pays–

Score1.0

Best spreadKSU +7.5book KSU -4.577% · no price · EV –

Bets

56%

Money

58%

No Kalshi market

Why this bet & matchup notes

Cushion: Over 40.5 vs the book's 55.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 54.8 combined vs the book's 55.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 54.5, now 55.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (32.5-22.7) · Away 3-7 (27.8-26.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +25.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam

#7 NHL SJ @ NSH Thu 05:00 PM

Over 3.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV-0.2%

Model89%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score0.8

Bets

93%

Money

96%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over +103 / Under -116).
Form L10: Home 3-7 (2.5-3.2) · Away 5-5 (3.0-3.5)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 1.9d rest
Starters: SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.896 SV% | NSH: Juuse Saros, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.897 SV%
Best-value line: 7.5 (EV +13.6%)

#8 NFL SEA @ DEN Thu 05:15 PM

Under 54.5

Best total · book line Under 40.5

EV-1.7%

Model84%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score0.1

Best spreadSEA +9.5book SEA -2.582% · 84¢ · EV -3.8%

Bets

20%

Money

24%

Reverse line moveHome short weekAway short weekPinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -1.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 54.5 vs the book's 40.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 43.2 combined vs the book's 40.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 43.5, now 40.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 40.5 (Over -105 / Under -107).
Form L10: Home 7-3 (21.4-20.4) · Away 8-2 (26.7-18.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 4.2d rest, short week · Away 4.2d rest, short week
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 21.5 (EV +42.4%)

#9 NCAAF FLA @ TEX Sat 09:00 AM

FLA +23.5

Best spread · book line FLA +11.5

EV-1.4%

Model79%

Price79¢

Pays1.25x

Score-0.1

Best totalUnder 66.5book Under 51.581% · 85¢ · EV -5.9%

Bets

65%

Money

76%

Sharp money +11

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: FLA +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 76% of the money on 65% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +9.5, now +11.5.
Form L10: Home 8-2 (32.5-23.8) · Away 5-5 (33.2-29.8)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -8.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -13.5 (EV +41.9%)

#3 NFL CAR @ PHI Sun 10:00 AM

Under 54.5

Best total · book line Under 38.5

EV-3.1%

Model87%

Price89¢

Pays1.11x

Score-0.6

Best spreadPHI +16.5book PHI +3.585% · 85¢ · EV -1.6%

Bets

20%

Money

34%

Reverse line moveSharp money +14

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -3.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 54.5 vs the book's 38.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 42.7 combined vs the book's 38.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money: 34% of the money on 20% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 43.5, now 38.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (20.1-18.8) · Away 4-6 (22.5-24.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 13.7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Jalen Hurts QB (Out); Will Shipley RB (Out)
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 21.5 (EV +8.9%)

#4 NFL BAL @ CLE Sun 10:00 AM

Under 56.5

Best total · book line Under 41.5

EV-2.9%

Model86%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-0.8

Best spreadCLE +16.5book CLE +4.581% · 84¢ · EV -4.5%

Bets

19%

Money

31%

Reverse line moveSharp money +12

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -2.9%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 56.5 vs the book's 41.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 45.2 combined vs the book's 41.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money: 31% of the money on 19% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 44.5, now 41.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (17.8-22.1) · Away 6-4 (28.1-22.4)
Head to head: 0-2 (avg margin -15.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Raheim Sanders RB (Out); KC Concepcion WR (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 20.5 (EV +6.9%)

#5 NFL DAL @ GB Sun 05:20 PM

Under 67.5

Best total · book line Under 53

EV+0.6%

Model86%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-0.8

Best spreadDAL +13.5book DAL +1.582% · 85¢ · EV -4.9%

Bets

28%

Money

22%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 67.5 vs the book's 53: 14.5 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 50.5 combined vs the book's 53, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 51.5, now 53.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (20.1-24.6) · Away 3-7 (25.8-30.5)
Head to head: 0-1-0 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest: Home 7.3d rest · Away 10d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: 34.5 (EV +4.5%)

#10 NCAAF ARST @ USM Sat 04:00 PM

Under 76.5

Best total · book line Under 62.5

EV+0.2%

Model82%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score-0.9

Best spreadUSM +20.5book USM +780% · 82¢ · EV -3.1%

Bets

72%

Money

69%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV +0.2%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 76.5 vs the book's 62.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 57.4 combined vs the book's 62.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 56.5, now 62.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (27.5-32.6) · Away 4-6 (27.3-27.3)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 11d rest · Away 9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 43.5 (EV +8.9%)

#11 NCAAF BAMA @ TENN Sat 12:30 PM

TENN +20.5

Best spread · book line TENN +7.5

EV+0.9%

Model80%

Price78¢

Pays1.26x

Score-1.5

Best totalOver 35.5book Over 50.584% · 87¢ · EV -4.2%

Bets

33%

Money

23%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV +0.9%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TENN +20.5 vs the book's +7.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +1.5, now +7.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (33.2-19.1) · Away 7-3 (37.6-19.5)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -17.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -14.5 (EV +86.9%)

#2 NCAAF MEM @ TULN Fri 04:30 PM

Under 70.5

Best total · book line Under 55.5

EV+0.6%

Model84%

Price82¢

Pays1.20x

Score-1.5

Best spreadTULN +20.5book TULN +780% · 81¢ · EV -1.9%

Bets

39%

Money

31%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 70.5 vs the book's 55.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 55.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 54.5, now 55.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -106 / Under -110).
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest
Best-value line: 40.5 (EV +8.9%)

#12 EPL AVL @ NEW Sat 09:30 AM

Over 0.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV-0.8%

Model96%

Price96¢

Pays1.04x

Score-1.5

Bets

91%

Money

94%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 91% of bets are on this side (money 94%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Form L10: Home 4-3-3 (1.7-1.8) · Away 3-3-4 (1.5-1.8)
Head to head: 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.0)
Rest: Home 4.9d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

#13 NCAAF GT @ VT Sat 12:30 PM

GT +21.5

Best spread · book line GT +10

EV-0.3%

Model78%

Price77¢

Pays1.28x

Score-1.6

Best totalUnder 69.5book Under 55.581% · 82¢ · EV -2.4%

Bets

75%

Money

74%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 77¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: GT +21.5 vs the book's +10: 11.5 extra points.
Public side: 75% of bets are on this side (money 74%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened +9.5, now +10.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (28.0-24.7) · Away 4-6 (28.6-28.5)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -15.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -14.5 (EV +86.2%)

#9 NHL CGY @ VGK Thu 07:00 PM

Over 3.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV-0.5%

Model88%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-1.8

Bets

97%

Money

97%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.5%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 97% of bets are on this side (money 97%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over +106 / Under -119).
Form L10: Home 8-2 (4.0-2.3) · Away 3-7 (2.1-3.8)
Head to head: 3-1 (avg margin +1.8)
Rest: Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: CGY: Dustin Wolf, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.839 SV% | VGK: Carter Hart, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.906 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Parker Wotherspoon D (Out)
Best-value line: 7.5 (EV +11.8%)

#6 NFL HOU @ JAC Sun 06:30 AM

Over 27.5

Best total · book line Over 42.5

EV-3.5%

Model87%

Price90¢

Pays1.10x

Score-1.9

Best spreadJAC +9.5book JAC -2.582% · 84¢ · EV -3.3%

Bets

44%

Money

58%

Reverse line moveSharp money +14

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 27.5 vs the book's 42.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 42.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp money: 58% of the money on 44% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 40.5, now 42.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 9-1 (30.5-15.3) · Away 6-4 (25.1-20.9)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away David Montgomery RB (Doubtful); Tank Dell WR (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 51.5 (EV +4.7%)

#14 NCAAF GAST @ JMU Sat 09:00 AM

GAST +23.5

Best spread · book line GAST +11.5

EV-3.4%

Model77%

Price78¢

Pays1.26x

Score-2.0

Best totalUnder 73.5book Under 57.584% · 86¢ · EV -3.1%

Bets

46%

Money

59%

Reverse line moveSharp money +13

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -3.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: GAST +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 59% of the money on 46% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +12.5, now +11.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 10-0 (42.3-14.4) · Away 4-6 (30.2-26.1)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 13.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -10.5 (EV +69.9%)

#15 NCAAF RUT @ UMD Sat 09:30 AM

Under 71.5

Best total · book line Under 56.5

EV-0.8%

Model83%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score-2.2

Best spreadRUT +16.5book RUT +4.576% · 78¢ · EV -3.9%

Bets

62%

Money

64%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 56.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.6-19.0) · Away 3-7 (27.0-32.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest
Best-value line: 77.5 (EV +2.6%)

#16 NCAAF LT @ ULM Sat 05:00 PM

ULM +27.5

Best spread · book line ULM +15.5

EV-3.4%

Model77%

Price79¢

Pays1.25x

Score-2.4

Best totalOver 42.5book Over 57.583% · 86¢ · EV -4.3%

Bets

46%

Money

68%

Sharp money +22

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -3.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: ULM +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 68% of the money on 46% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +14.5, now +15.5.
Form L10: Home 0-10 (20.2-39.0) · Away 6-4 (33.4-27.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -7.5 (EV +34.3%)

#17 NCAAF FSU @ MIA Sat 04:00 PM

Under 72.5

Best total · book line Under 56.5

EV-1.0%

Model85%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-2.5

Best spreadFSU +33.5book FSU +21.579% · 79¢ · EV -2.0%

Bets

47%

Money

50%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 72.5 vs the book's 56.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 56.5.
Form L10: Home 9-1 (41.9-11.6) · Away 4-6 (26.2-25.1)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 8d rest
Best-value line: 36.5 (EV +17.9%)

#18 EPL LFC @ BRE Sat 07:00 AM

Under 4.5

Best total · book line Under 2.5

EV-2.0%

Model80%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score-2.5

Bets

10%

Money

11%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 3.5, now 2.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 3-6-1 (1.8-1.2) · Away 2-5-3 (1.3-1.6)
Head to head: 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 5.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 5.5 (EV -1.3%)

#19 NCAAF UVA @ SMU Sat 09:00 AM

Under 67.5

Best total · book line Under 51.5

EV-2.2%

Model84%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-3.2

Best spreadUVA +21.5book UVA +9.579% · 80¢ · EV -2.7%

Bets

39%

Money

40%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 67.5 vs the book's 51.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 50.1 combined vs the book's 51.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 55.5, now 51.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 7-3 (32.9-20.5) · Away 6-4 (28.7-18.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 34.5 (EV +3.6%)

#10 NHL UTA @ EDM Thu 06:00 PM

Over 3.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV-1.1%

Model91%

Price91¢

Pays1.09x

Score-3.8

Bets

96%

Money

97%

Public sidePinnacle-basedEDM backup goalie

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 96% of bets are on this side (money 97%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -116 / Under +103).
Goalies: EDM backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (4.1-2.4) · Away 6-4 (3.6-3.1)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest: Home 1.9d rest, road game #3 · Away 2d rest
Starters: UTA: Karel Vejmelka, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.895 SV% | EDM: Devon Levi, confirmed, backup, 0.903 SV%
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 9.5 (EV +16.0%)

#11 NHL BUF @ TOR Thu 04:00 PM

Over 3.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV-1.3%

Model91%

Price92¢

Pays1.08x

Score-4.1

Bets

92%

Money

94%

Public sidePinnacle-basedBUF goalie unconfirmedTOR backup goalieTOR goalie unconfirmed

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.7 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 94%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -127 / Under +113).
Goalies: BUF goalie unconfirmed; TOR backup goalie; TOR goalie unconfirmed. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (3.2-3.8) · Away 5-5 (3.2-3.1)
Head to head: 1-3 (avg margin -1.2)
Rest: Home 1.9d rest, road game #3 · Away 2d rest
Starters: BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, expected, #1 goalie, 0.850 SV% | TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky, expected, backup, 0.907 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Matt Grzelcyk D (Out)
Best-value line: 9.5 (EV +26.0%)

#20 NCAAF CIN @ WVU Sat 09:00 AM

Under 78.5

Best total · book line Under 63.5

EV-0.3%

Model84%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score-4.3

Best spreadCIN +13.5book CIN +1.577% · 83¢ · EV -8.0%

Bets

65%

Money

59%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 61.5, now 63.5.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 69.5 (EV +1.0%)

#12 NHL VAN @ FLA Thu 04:00 PM

Over 3.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV-1.4%

Model88%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-4.4

Bets

97%

Money

99%

Public sidePinnacle-basedVAN backup goalieFLA backup goalie

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 7 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 97% of bets are on this side (money 99%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -110 / Under -102), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies: VAN backup goalie; FLA backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.6-2.5) · Away 3-7 (3.1-4.7)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest, road game #5
Starters: VAN: Leevi Merilainen, confirmed, backup, 0.926 SV% | FLA: Akira Schmid, confirmed, backup, 0.875 SV%
Best-value line: 7.5 (EV +6.2%)

#7 NFL NYJ @ NE Sun 10:00 AM

Under 59.5

Best total · book line Under 43.5

EV-1.0%

Model88%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-4.5

Best spreadNYJ +20.5book NYJ +7.582% · 84¢ · EV -3.4%

Bets

25%

Money

24%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 59.5 vs the book's 43.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 45 combined vs the book's 43.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 42.5, now 43.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (28.2-18.8) · Away 2-8 (14.7-28.4)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +22.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Breece Hall RB (Doubtful); Adonai Mitchell WR (Doubtful); TreVeyon Henderson RB (Doubtful); Kenyon Sadiq TE (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 23.5 (EV +25.6%)

#21 NCAAF FAU @ ARMY Sat 09:00 AM

Under 71.5

Best total · book line Under 55.5

EV-1.0%

Model85%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-4.6

Best spreadARMY +9.5book ARMY -2.577% · 81¢ · EV -6.6%

Bets

51%

Money

50%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 55.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 55 combined vs the book's 55.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 59.5, now 55.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (25.5-19.3) · Away 5-5 (33.0-32.1)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 74.5 (EV +0.3%)

#22 EPL HUL @ FUL Sat 07:00 AM

Under 4.5

Best total · book line Under 2.5

EV-2.3%

Model84%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-4.6

Bets

Money

18%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Form L10: Home 1-3-6 (0.9-1.5) · Away 2-3-1 (1.3-1.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6d rest
Best-value line: 5.5 (EV -1.5%)

#23 NCAAF PSU @ MICH Sat 12:30 PM

PSU +20.5

Best spread · book line PSU +7

EV-2.6%

Model82%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score-5.4

Best totalUnder 57.5book Under 42.581% · 85¢ · EV -5.4%

Bets

74%

Money

84%

Sharp money +10

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: PSU +20.5 vs the book's +7: 13.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 84% of the money on 74% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +6.5, now +7.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (24.5-18.4) · Away 6-4 (31.2-19.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 14.1d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -11.5 (EV +77.5%)

#24 NCAAF MIZ @ MISS Sat 12:30 PM

Under 74.5

Best total · book line Under 58.5

EV-1.0%

Model84%

Price84¢

Pays1.18x

Score-5.5

Best spreadMISS +6.5book MISS -5.576% · 81¢ · EV -7.8%

Bets

53%

Money

50%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 74.5 vs the book's 58.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 56.2 combined vs the book's 58.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 57.5, now 58.5.
Form L10: Home 9-1 (37.9-22.3) · Away 7-3 (31.8-20.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 50.5 (EV +1.1%)

#13 NHL WPG @ CHI Thu 05:00 PM

Over 3.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV-1.7%

Model87%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-5.6

Bets

91%

Money

93%

Public sidePinnacle-basedWPG backup goalie

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 91% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 5.5, now 6.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -111 / Under -101), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies: WPG backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (2.6-4.1) · Away 4-6 (2.5-4.1)
Head to head: 1-3 (avg margin -0.8)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: WPG: Stuart Skinner, confirmed, backup, 0.917 SV% | CHI: Spencer Knight, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV%
Best-value line: 9.5 (EV +9.9%)

#25 EPL CHE @ EVE Sat 04:30 AM

Over 2.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV-1.7%

Model59%

Price58¢

Pays1.67x

Score-5.9

Bets

94%

Money

96%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 59%; Kalshi charges 58¢ (EV -1.7%, priced against you).
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 94% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Form L10: Home 2-6-2 (1.4-1.4) · Away 4-2-4 (2.0-2.0)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin +0.5)
Rest: Home 5.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest

#8 NFL CHI @ ATL Sun 10:00 AM

Under 65.5

Best total · book line Under 51.5

EV-0.4%

Model87%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score-6.5

Best spreadATL +13.5book ATL +1.581% · 85¢ · EV -5.9%

Bets

34%

Money

24%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.4%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 65.5 vs the book's 51.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 46.3 combined vs the book's 51.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 51.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (22.9-24.7) · Away 5-5 (24.7-20.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 41.5 (EV +7.8%)

#26 NCAAF AUB @ UGA Sat 12:30 PM

AUB +33.5

Best spread · book line AUB +20.5

EV-0.2%

Model81%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score-6.5

Best totalUnder 65.5book Under 49.584% · 87¢ · EV -4.5%

Bets

38%

Money

27%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion: AUB +33.5 vs the book's +20.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +16.5, now +20.5.
Form L10: Home 10-0 (39.1-11.3) · Away 5-5 (29.0-23.0)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +10.0)
Rest: Home 6.8d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: +1.5 (EV +35.1%)

#27 NCAAF UNC @ DUKE Sat 12:30 PM

Under 63.5

Best total · book line Under 47.5

EV-3.0%

Model84%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score-6.5

Best spreadDUKE +9.5book DUKE -378% · 84¢ · EV -7.9%

Bets

22%

Money

23%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 63.5 vs the book's 47.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 49.5 combined vs the book's 47.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 54.5, now 47.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 7-3 (32.9-22.0) · Away 5-5 (22.0-22.2)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: 30.5 (EV +5.1%)

#28 NCAAF TOL @ EMU Sat 12:30 PM

Under 68.5

Best total · book line Under 53.5

EV-1.6%

Model84%

Price84¢

Pays1.18x

Score-6.6

Best spreadTOL +5.5book TOL -6.577% · 82¢ · EV -6.9%

Bets

41%

Money

41%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -1.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 68.5 vs the book's 53.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 48.9 combined vs the book's 53.5, which supports this pick.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (23.0-23.4) · Away 8-2 (34.5-16.9)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 32.5 (EV +19.0%)

#29 NCAAF TCU @ BAY Sat 04:00 PM

Under 64.5

Best total · book line Under 48.5

EV-2.5%

Model85%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score-6.6

Best spreadTCU +17.5book TCU +677% · 81¢ · EV -5.6%

Bets

16%

Money

13%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -2.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 64.5 vs the book's 48.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 48.1 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 52.5, now 48.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (29.3-24.2) · Away 5-5 (24.2-18.5)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -6.0)
Rest: Home 13.9d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 28.5 (EV +14.6%)

#9 NFL PIT @ TB Sun 10:00 AM

Under 55.5

Best total · book line Under 39.5

EV-3.3%

Model88%

Price90¢

Pays1.10x

Score-6.7

Best spreadPIT +9.5book PIT -2.581% · 85¢ · EV -5.5%

Bets

19%

Money

22%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 55.5 vs the book's 39.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 42.8 combined vs the book's 39.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 45.5, now 39.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 2-8 (20.1-22.2) · Away 7-3 (22.7-20.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 9.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Ben Skowronek WR (Out); Roman Wilson WR (Out)
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 19.5 (EV +23.0%)

#1 NFL WAS @ SF Mon 05:15 PM

Under 65.5

Best total · book line Under 51.5

EV-1.2%

Model86%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score-6.9

Best spreadWAS +20.5book WAS +7.583% · 83¢ · EV -1.3%

Bets

37%

Money

33%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.2%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 65.5 vs the book's 51.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 50 combined vs the book's 51.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 50.5, now 51.5.
Form L10: Home 9-1 (31.0-20.3) · Away 3-1-6 (20.9-27.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 8.2d rest · Away 8.3d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Deebo Samuel WR (Out)
Best-value line: 29.5 (EV +3.6%)

#10 NFL BUF @ LV Sun 01:25 PM

Under 68.5

Best total · book line Under 53.5

EV-0.3%

Model88%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-7.2

Best spreadLV +17.5book LV +5.581% · 84¢ · EV -4.5%

Bets

34%

Money

22%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 68.5 vs the book's 53.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 50.1 combined vs the book's 53.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 53.5.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (19.4-25.3) · Away 8-2 (30.8-24.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 5.8d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 32.5 (EV +21.6%)

#11 NFL NO @ NYG Sun 10:00 AM

Under 60.5

Best total · book line Under 45.5

EV-1.4%

Model87%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-7.2

Best spreadNO +10.5book NO -1.581% · 83¢ · EV -4.0%

Bets

33%

Money

30%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 60.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 45.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 44.5, now 45.5.
Form L10: Home 5-1-4 (22.6-21.1) · Away 5-5 (24.2-23.9)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -12.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: 24.5 (EV +10.8%)

#30 NCAAF UNLV @ AFA Sat 12:30 PM

Under 63.5

Best total · book line Under 48.5

EV-2.0%

Model83%

Price84¢

Pays1.18x

Score-7.9

Best spreadUNLV +11.5book UNLV -177% · 83¢ · EV -8.1%

Bets

23%

Money

23%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 63.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 46.1 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (24.8-19.0) · Away 7-3 (26.8-21.6)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -3.0)
Rest: Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 27.5 (EV +16.6%)

#14 NCAAF GASO @ ODU Thu 04:30 PM

Under 60.5

Best total · book line Under 46.5

EV-3.5%

Model81%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score-8.0

Best spreadODU +14.5book ODU +378% · 80¢ · EV -4.4%

Bets

23%

Money

25%

Reverse line moveAway short weekPinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 60.5 vs the book's 46.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 48 combined vs the book's 46.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 52.5, now 46.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 46.5 (Over -104 / Under -112).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (24.5-19.1) · Away 5-5 (25.2-27.3)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +35.0)
Rest: Home 5.3d rest · Away 5d rest, short week
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 36.5 (EV +15.3%)

#15 NHL SEA @ TB Thu 04:00 PM

Over 3.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV-2.4%

Model87%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-8.9

Bets

95%

Money

96%

Public sidePinnacle-basedSEA goalie unconfirmed

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.8 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -117 / Under +104), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies: SEA goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (2.6-2.6) · Away 5-5 (3.3-3.0)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin +1.5)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest, road game #4
Starters: SEA: Joey Daccord, expected, #1 goalie, 0.913 SV% | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.886 SV%
Best-value line: 9.5 (EV +3.5%)

#16 NHL STL @ MIN Thu 05:00 PM

Under 8.5

Best total · book line Under 5.5

EV-2.3%

Model83%

Price84¢

Pays1.18x

Score-9.6

Bets

Money

Pinnacle-basedSTL goalie unconfirmed

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.5 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -101 / Under -111), vs 5.5 at other books.
Goalies: STL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (2.8-2.6) · Away 7-3 (4.4-3.2)
Head to head: 1-2 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: STL: Joel Hofer, expected, #1 goalie, 0.921 SV% | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.933 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Torey Krug D (Out); Nico Sturm F (Out)
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 2.5 (EV +29.1%)

#31 NCAAF ASU @ TTU Sat 12:30 PM

Under 64.5

Best total · book line Under 48.5

EV-3.4%

Model83%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-9.7

Best spreadASU +27.5book ASU +1579% · 81¢ · EV -4.2%

Bets

15%

Money

13%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -3.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 64.5 vs the book's 48.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 51.2 combined vs the book's 48.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 50.5, now 48.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 10-0 (37.7-12.4) · Away 6-4 (27.7-24.5)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -4.0)
Rest: Home 13.8d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 28.5 (EV +30.3%)

#17 NCAAF ECU @ UAB Thu 04:30 PM

Under 62.5

Best total · book line Under 48.5

EV-4.5%

Model79%

Price82¢

Pays1.20x

Score-9.9

Best spreadECU +6.5book ECU -5.577% · 80¢ · EV -4.7%

Bets

22%

Money

28%

Reverse line movePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -4.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 62.5 vs the book's 48.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 53.9 combined vs the book's 48.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 54.5, now 48.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48 (Over -115 / Under -101), vs 48.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (22.3-30.4) · Away 7-3 (31.4-23.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 5d rest · Away 5.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 71.5 (EV -2.0%)

#32 NCAAF ND @ BYU Sat 04:30 PM

ND +1.5

Best spread · book line ND -10.5

EV-5.2%

Model77%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score-10.1

Best totalUnder 62.5book Under 46.582% · 87¢ · EV -6.1%

Bets

36%

Money

47%

Reverse line moveSharp money +11

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -5.2%, priced against you).
Cushion: ND +1.5 vs the book's -10.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 47% of the money on 36% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened -10, now -10.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 8-2 (29.8-17.8) · Away 10-0 (46.9-11.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.9d rest · Away 7.2d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -30.5 (EV +7.8%)

#33 NCAAF MSST @ LSU Sat 09:00 AM

MSST +27.5

Best spread · book line MSST +15

EV-0.6%

Model80%

Price79¢

Pays1.25x

Score-10.4

Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 56.583% · 85¢ · EV -3.1%

Bets

74%

Money

58%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -0.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: MSST +27.5 vs the book's +15: 12.5 extra points.
Line move: Opened +10.5, now +15.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-18.0) · Away 5-5 (33.8-34.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -10.5 (EV +32.0%)

#34 EPL IPS @ MCI Sat 07:00 AM

Under 5.5

Best total · book line Under 3.5

EV-2.8%

Model84%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score-10.5

Bets

Money

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -2.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 5.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick.
Form L10: Home 8-1-1 (2.4-0.8) · Away 3-3 (1.5-2.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest

#35 NCAAF OSU @ IU Sat 09:00 AM

Under 64.5

Best total · book line Under 50.5

EV-3.0%

Model81%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score-10.5

Best spreadIU +16.5book IU +3.579% · 83¢ · EV -5.6%

Bets

38%

Money

41%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 64.5 vs the book's 50.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 49.3 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 48.5, now 50.5.
Form L10: Home 10-0 (36.8-11.5) · Away 8-2 (38.3-12.0)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +3.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Best-value line: 28.5 (EV +17.7%)

#18 NHL NYR @ NJ Thu 04:00 PM

Over 2.5

Best total · book line Over 6

EV-2.7%

Model95%

Price97¢

Pays1.03x

Score-10.6

Bets

95%

Money

95%

Public sidePinnacle-basedNYR backup goalieNJ backup goalie

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 97¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 2.5 vs the book's 6: 3.5 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.8 combined vs the book's 6, which works against this pick.
Public side: 95% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 5.5, now 6.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -115 / Under +102).
Goalies: NYR backup goalie; NJ backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (2.7-3.7) · Away 7-3 (3.3-1.9)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYR: Dylan Garand, confirmed, backup, 0.951 SV% | NJ: Nico Daws, confirmed, backup, 0.908 SV%
Best-value line: 7.5 (EV +3.7%)

#12 NFL TEN @ IND Sun 10:00 AM

Under 59.5

Best total · book line Under 44.5

EV-3.5%

Model86%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-10.9

Best spreadTEN +20.5book TEN +786% · 87¢ · EV -2.4%

Bets

26%

Money

22%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 59.5 vs the book's 44.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 48.2 combined vs the book's 44.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 44.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 2-8 (23.3-30.1) · Away 2-8 (17.2-25.9)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +22.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Ashton Dulin WR (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 29.5 (EV +5.7%)

#36 NCAAF WMU @ CMU Sat 10:30 AM

Under 59.5

Best total · book line Under 43.5

EV-4.4%

Model85%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-11.3

Best spreadCMU +20.5book CMU +779% · 84¢ · EV -6.5%

Bets

18%

Money

21%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -4.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 59.5 vs the book's 43.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 43 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 43.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (19.2-23.8) · Away 8-2 (26.0-17.0)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -3.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 23.5 (EV +48.6%)

#37 NCAAF LOU @ SYR Sat 04:30 PM

Under 71.5

Best total · book line Under 55.5

EV-2.6%

Model84%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-11.9

Best spreadSYR +27.5book SYR +14.580% · 81¢ · EV -2.8%

Bets

61%

Money

58%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 55.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 56.6 combined vs the book's 55.5, which works against this pick.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (21.9-33.0) · Away 4-6 (32.9-25.3)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest, road game #3 · Away 8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 35.5 (EV +6.8%)

#38 NCAAF AKR @ M-OH Sat 12:30 PM

AKR +21.5

Best spread · book line AKR +9.5

EV-5.1%

Model79%

Price82¢

Pays1.20x

Score-12.0

Best totalUnder 62.5book Under 46.583% · 88¢ · EV -6.3%

Bets

36%

Money

53%

Sharp money +17

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -5.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: AKR +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 53% of the money on 36% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (25.2-25.6) · Away 4-6 (24.0-27.7)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +13.0)
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line: -11.5 (EV +79.5%)

#39 NCAAF NEV @ NDSU Sat 04:00 PM

NEV +27.5

Best spread · book line NEV +14.5

EV-3.1%

Model80%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score-12.3

Best totalUnder 56.5book Under 42.580% · 84¢ · EV -6.1%

Bets

32%

Money

32%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -3.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: NEV +27.5 vs the book's +14.5: 13 extra points.
Form L10: Home 8-2 (32.8-12.4) · Away 4-6 (24.1-24.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -7.5 (EV +52.6%)

#3 NCAAF APP @ CC Fri 05:00 PM

Over 33.5

Best total · book line Over 49.5

EV-3.8%

Model86%

Price89¢

Pays1.11x

Score-15.0

Best spreadCC +13.5book CC +1.579% · 82¢ · EV -5.3%

Bets

74%

Money

74%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -3.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 33.5 vs the book's 49.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 49.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 49.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49.5 (Over -104 / Under -112).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 52.5 (EV +8.5%)

#40 NCAAF TROY @ UL Sat 02:00 PM

Under 64.5

Best total · book line Under 49.5

EV-3.8%

Model83%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-15.1

Best spreadTROY +16.5book TROY +3.578% · 82¢ · EV -5.8%

Bets

26%

Money

26%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -3.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 64.5 vs the book's 49.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 51.4 combined vs the book's 49.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 49.5.
Form L10: Home 8-2 (31.4-24.7) · Away 5-5 (22.3-24.4)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -12.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 10.9d rest
Best-value line: 28.5 (EV +11.7%)

#41 NCAAF NW @ MSU Sat 09:00 AM

Under 65.5

Best total · book line Under 49.5

EV-3.8%

Model84%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-16.1

Best spreadMSU +20.5book MSU +7.579% · 81¢ · EV -3.6%

Bets

23%

Money

21%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -3.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 65.5 vs the book's 49.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 49 combined vs the book's 49.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 48.5, now 49.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (21.3-25.3) · Away 5-5 (28.8-22.6)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line: 29.5 (EV +27.1%)

#42 NCAAF WIS @ UCLA Sat 04:30 PM

Under 58.5

Best total · book line Under 42.5

EV-6.2%

Model82%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-17.1

Best spreadWIS +14.5book WIS +2.579% · 86¢ · EV -9.6%

Bets

12%

Money

17%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -6.2%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 58.5 vs the book's 42.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 47.3 combined vs the book's 42.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 49.5, now 42.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (25.7-29.9) · Away 6-4 (21.9-17.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 14.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: 22.5 (EV +46.1%)

#43 NCAAF TLSA @ RICE Sat 01:30 PM

RICE +16.5

Best spread · book line RICE +4

EV-7.1%

Model76%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score-18.1

Best totalUnder 62.5book Under 46.583% · 87¢ · EV -5.2%

Bets

44%

Money

65%

Sharp money +21

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 76%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -7.2%, priced against you).
Cushion: RICE +16.5 vs the book's +4: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 65% of the money on 44% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +3, now +4.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (16.7-32.8) · Away 5-5 (26.7-25.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line: -17.5 (EV +39.0%)

#44 NCAAF BALL @ BGSU Sat 09:00 AM

Under 63.5

Best total · book line Under 47.5

EV-4.1%

Model84%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-18.5

Best spreadBALL +17.5book BALL +6.575% · 79¢ · EV -6.2%

Bets

20%

Money

16%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -4.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 63.5 vs the book's 47.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 48.3 combined vs the book's 47.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 44.5, now 47.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (18.0-26.3) · Away 2-8 (16.9-35.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: 27.5 (EV +24.4%)

#45 NCAAF ARK @ VAN Sat 04:00 PM

Under 64.5

Best total · book line Under 49.5

EV-5.5%

Model80%

Price84¢

Pays1.18x

Score-19.0

Best spreadVAN +5.5book VAN -6.576% · 81¢ · EV -7.1%

Bets

30%

Money

36%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -5.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 64.5 vs the book's 49.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 56.9 combined vs the book's 49.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 48.5, now 49.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-29.0) · Away 2-8 (22.7-31.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Best-value line: 28.5 (EV +8.5%)

#46 NCAAF MASS @ BUFF Sat 10:00 AM

Under 57.5

Best total · book line Under 41.5

EV-6.2%

Model82%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-19.8

Best spreadBUFF +5.5book BUFF -6.575% · 83¢ · EV -10.7%

Bets

12%

Money

12%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -6.2%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 57.5 vs the book's 41.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 49.6 combined vs the book's 41.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 41.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 24.5 (EV +9.9%)

#47 NCAAF PITT @ BC Sat 09:00 AM

PITT +5.5

Best spread · book line PITT -6.5

EV-6.1%

Model77%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score-20.4

Best totalUnder 58.5book Under 42.582% · 87¢ · EV -6.4%

Bets

60%

Money

68%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -6.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: PITT +5.5 vs the book's -6.5: 12 extra points.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (21.0-27.3) · Away 7-3 (30.8-21.1)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -41.0)
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -21.5 (EV +24.8%)

#48 NCAAF KENT @ USF Sat 04:00 PM

Under 60.5

Best total · book line Under 45.5

EV-6.7%

Model82%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-21.8

Best spreadKENT +33.5book KENT +20.580% · 84¢ · EV -5.6%

Bets

17%

Money

17%

Reverse line move

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -6.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 60.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 51.6 combined vs the book's 45.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 49.5, now 45.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 7-3 (35.0-18.9) · Away 4-6 (18.8-30.6)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 9d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 27.5 (EV +30.5%)

#49 NCAAF UK @ OU Sat 04:30 PM

Over 28.5

Best total · book line Over 43.5

EV-6.3%

Model84%

Price89¢

Pays1.11x

Score-25.1

Best spreadUK +17.5book UK +6.576% · 80¢ · EV -5.7%

Bets

89%

Money

89%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -6.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 28.5 vs the book's 43.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 49.8 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 89% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 41.5, now 43.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (23.1-18.9) · Away 7-3 (30.5-27.1)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line: 52.5 (EV +8.3%)

No picks match these filters.

Parlays: Today

Top 2-leg EV+0.0%

#1 NCAAF Over 54.5 CSU @ TXST
#2 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT

Pays1.36x

Needs74%

Model hits74%

Why these bets

Over 54.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 54.5 vs the book's 70.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 64.9 combined vs the book's 70.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money: 69% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 63.5, now 70.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 70.5 (Over -111 / Under -105).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

Top 3-leg EV+1.0%

#1 NCAAF Over 54.5 CSU @ TXST
#2 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
#3 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK

Pays1.56x

Needs64%

Model hits65%

Why these bets

Over 54.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 54.5 vs the book's 70.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 64.9 combined vs the book's 70.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money: 69% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 63.5, now 70.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 70.5 (Over -111 / Under -105).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Top 4-leg EV+1.6%

#1 NCAAF Over 54.5 CSU @ TXST
#2 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
#3 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
#4 MLB Under 11.5 MIL @ LAD

Pays1.90x

Needs53%

Model hits53%

Why these bets

Over 54.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 54.5 vs the book's 70.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 64.9 combined vs the book's 70.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money: 69% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 63.5, now 70.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 70.5 (Over -111 / Under -105).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 11.5 vs the book's 7.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 7.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 7.5 (Over -113 / Under +101).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.2-2.7) · Away 9-1 (4.5-2.7)
Head to head: 3-13 (avg margin -1.3)
Rest: Home 1d rest · Away 1d rest

Top 5-leg EV-0.3%

#1 NCAAF Over 54.5 CSU @ TXST
#2 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
#3 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
#4 MLB Under 11.5 MIL @ LAD
#5 NBA HOU +16.5 OKC @ HOU

Pays2.19x

Needs46%

Model hits46%

Why these bets

Over 54.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 54.5 vs the book's 70.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 64.9 combined vs the book's 70.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money: 69% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 63.5, now 70.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 70.5 (Over -111 / Under -105).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 11.5 vs the book's 7.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 7.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 7.5 (Over -113 / Under +101).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.2-2.7) · Away 9-1 (4.5-2.7)
Head to head: 3-13 (avg margin -1.3)
Rest: Home 1d rest · Away 1d rest

HOU +16.5 · OKC @ HOU

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.9%, priced against you).
Cushion: HOU +16.5 vs the book's +4.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 68% of the money on 47% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Form L10: Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head: 1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Best-value 2-leg EV+3.2%

#2 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
#3 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK

Pays1.33x

Needs75%

Model hits78%

Why these bets

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Best-value 3-leg EV+3.8%

#2 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
#3 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
#6 NHL Under 8.5 PHI @ DET

Pays1.54x

Needs65%

Model hits67%

Why these bets

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -116 / Under +104).
Goalies: PHI goalie unconfirmed; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: PHI: Dan Vladar, expected, #1 goalie, 0.875 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%

Best-value 4-leg EV+4.4%

#2 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
#3 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
#6 NHL Under 8.5 PHI @ DET
#4 MLB Under 11.5 MIL @ LAD

Pays1.88x

Needs53%

Model hits56%

Why these bets

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price: Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies: NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries: Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head: 5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest: Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -116 / Under +104).
Goalies: PHI goalie unconfirmed; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head: 2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest: Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters: PHI: Dan Vladar, expected, #1 goalie, 0.875 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: Under 11.5 vs the book's 7.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 7.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 7.5 (Over -113 / Under +101).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.2-2.7) · Away 9-1 (4.5-2.7)
Head to head: 3-13 (avg margin -1.3)
Rest: Home 1d rest · Away 1d rest

Missing matches

1 of our games have no Kalshi price · 113 Kalshi games didn't link

If a game appears in both lists under different names, it's a name mismatch. Send both names and they'll be added as an alias. Games only in our list usually just aren't on Kalshi yet.

Kalshi games not linked

Bournemouth vs Sunderland EPL · 2026-10-18 · BOU vs SUN
Brighton vs Crystal Palace EPL · 2026-10-18 · BRI vs CRY
Leeds United vs Manchester United EPL · 2026-10-18 · LEE vs MUN
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal EPL · 2026-10-18 · NFO vs ARS
Tottenham vs Coventry EPL · 2026-10-19 · TOT vs COV
Tampa Bay vs Cleveland MLB · 2026-10-15 · TB vs CLE
Game 4: Tampa Bay vs Cleveland MLB · 2026-10-16 ·
Game 5: Tampa Bay vs Cleveland MLB · 2026-10-17 ·
Atlanta vs Dallas NBA · 2026-10-16 · ATL vs DAL
Boston vs Philadelphia NBA · 2026-10-16 · BOS vs PHI
Charlotte vs Memphis NBA · 2026-10-16 · CHA vs MEM
Denver vs Los Angeles L NBA · 2026-10-16 · DEN vs LAL
Miami vs Orlando NBA · 2026-10-16 · MIA vs ORL
Milwaukee vs Indiana NBA · 2026-10-16 · MIL vs IND
Minnesota vs Chicago NBA · 2026-10-16 · MIN vs CHI
Portland vs Golden State NBA · 2026-10-16 · POR vs GSW
Sacramento vs San Antonio NBA · 2026-10-16 · SAC vs SAS
Toronto vs Detroit NBA · 2026-10-16 · TOR vs DET
Utah vs Phoenix NBA · 2026-10-16 · UTA vs PHX
Washington vs New Orleans NBA · 2026-10-16 · WAS vs NOP
Boston vs Detroit NBA · 2026-10-20 · BOS vs DET
Oklahoma City vs San Antonio NBA · 2026-10-20 · OKC vs SAS
Philadelphia vs New York NBA · 2026-10-20 · PHI vs NYK
Charleston Southern vs Clemson NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · CHSO vs CLEM
Columbia vs Penn NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · CLMB vs PENN
Illinois St. vs Southern Illinois NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · ILST vs SIU
Louisiana Tech vs Louisiana-Monroe NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · LT vs ULM
Navy vs UTSA NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · NAVY vs UTSA
New Mexico vs Hawai'i NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · UNM vs HAW
Ohio vs Sacramento St. NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · OHIO vs SAC
Utah vs Colorado NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · UTAH vs COLO
Wake Forest vs California NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · WAKE vs CAL
Abilene Christian vs North Alabama NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · AC vs UNA
Alabama St. vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ALST vs ARPB
Alcorn St. vs Prairie View A&M NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ALCN vs PV
Austin Peay vs West Georgia NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · PEAY vs UWGA
Bethune-Cookman vs Mississippi Valley St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · COOK vs MVSU
Brown vs Princeton NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · BRWN vs PRIN
Bryant vs Maine NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · BRY vs ME
Cal Poly vs Northern Colorado NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CP vs UNCO
Central Arkansas vs Tarleton St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CARK vs TARL
Central Connecticut St. vs Mercyhurst NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CCSU vs MHU
Chicago St. vs North Carolina A&T NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CHS vs NCAT
Dayton vs Butler NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · DAY vs BUT
Duquesne vs Stonehill NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · DUQ vs STNH
East Texas A&M vs Houston Christian NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ETAM vs HCU
Eastern Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · EKY vs TNTC
Florida A&M vs Jackson St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · FAMU vs JKST
Fresno St. vs San Diego St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · FRES vs SDSU
Gardner-Webb vs Tennessee-Martin NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · WEBB vs UTM
Georgetown vs Colgate NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · GTWN vs COLG
Grambling St. vs Alabama A&M NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · GRAM vs AAMU
Hampton vs Sacred Heart NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · HAMP vs SHU
Holy Cross vs Harvard NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · HC vs HARV
Idaho St. vs Weber St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · IDST vs WEB
Idaho vs Montana NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · IDHO vs MONT
Illinois St. vs Southern Illinois NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ILST vs SIU
Kansas vs Kansas St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · KU vs KSU
LIU vs Wagner NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LIU vs WAG
Lafayette vs Bucknell NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LAF vs BUCK
Lamar vs Southeastern Louisiana NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LAM vs SELA
Lehigh vs Cornell NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LEH vs COR
Lindenwood vs Eastern Illinois NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LINW vs EIU
Marist vs Drake NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MRST vs DRKE
McNeese vs Northwestern St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MCNS vs NWST
Mercer vs Samford NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MER vs SAM
Merrimack vs Dartmouth NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MRMK vs DART
Monmouth vs New Hampshire NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MONM vs UNH
Montana St. vs Eastern Washington NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MTST vs EWU
Morehead St. vs Davidson NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MORE vs DAV
Morgan St. vs Tennessee St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MORG vs TNST
Navy vs UTSA NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · NAVY vs UTSA
Nebraska vs Oregon NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · NEB vs ORE
New Haven vs Robert Morris NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · NHC vs RMU
New Mexico vs Hawai'i NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UNM vs HAW
Northern Iowa vs Youngstown St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UNI vs YSU
Ohio vs Sacramento St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · OHIO vs SAC
Portland St. vs Northern Arizona NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · PRST vs NAU
Presbyterian vs Stetson NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · PRE vs STET
Rhode Island vs Yale NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · URI vs YALE
San Jose St. vs UTEP NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SJSU vs UTEP
South Dakota St. vs North Dakota NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SDST vs UND
South Dakota vs Murray St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SDAK vs MURR
Stephen F. Austin vs Nicholls St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SFA vs NICH
Towson vs Campbell NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · TOWS vs CAMP
UC Davis vs Southern Utah NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UCD vs SUU
UT Rio Grande Valley vs Incarnate Word NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UTRGV vs IW
University at Albany vs Stony Brook NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ALBY vs STON
Utah vs Colorado NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UTAH vs COLO
VMI vs Wofford NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · VMI vs WOF
Valparaiso vs San Diego NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · VALP vs USD
Villanova vs Fordham NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · VILL vs FOR
Wake Forest vs California NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · WAKE vs CAL
Western Illinois vs Southeast Missouri St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · WIU vs SEMO
Middle Tennessee vs Florida International NCAAF · 2026-10-20 · MTU vs FIU
Missouri St. vs Delaware NCAAF · 2026-10-20 · MOSU vs DEL
South Alabama vs Marshall NCAAF · 2026-10-20 · USA vs MRSH
Boston vs Anaheim NHL · 2026-10-16 · BOS vs ANA
Pittsburgh vs Colorado NHL · 2026-10-16 · PIT vs COL
Boston vs Los Angeles NHL · 2026-10-17 · BOS vs LA
Buffalo vs Montreal NHL · 2026-10-17 · BUF vs MTL
Carolina vs Winnipeg NHL · 2026-10-17 · CAR vs WPG
Dallas vs Chicago NHL · 2026-10-17 · DAL vs CHI
Edmonton vs Utah NHL · 2026-10-17 · EDM vs UTA
New Jersey vs Washington NHL · 2026-10-17 · NJ vs WSH
New York I vs Toronto NHL · 2026-10-17 · NYI vs TOR
New York R vs Columbus NHL · 2026-10-17 · NYR vs CBJ
Ottawa vs Philadelphia NHL · 2026-10-17 · OTT vs PHI
Pittsburgh vs Vegas NHL · 2026-10-17 · PIT vs VGK
San Jose vs Detroit NHL · 2026-10-17 · SJ vs DET
Seattle vs Florida NHL · 2026-10-17 · SEA vs FLA
St. Louis vs Nashville NHL · 2026-10-17 · STL vs NSH
Vancouver vs Tampa Bay NHL · 2026-10-17 · VAN vs TB

Our games without a Kalshi price

KU @ KSU NCAAF · Sat 09:00 AM · Kansas Jayhawks @ Kansas State Wildcats

EV = model win chance × Kalshi payout − 1. Positive means the price is in your favor by the model's estimate. Model numbers are estimates; check results over 100+ picks before trusting any pattern.

Line Tracker

Target parlays: Today

Under 84.5 · CSU @ TXST

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

CSU +27.5 · CSU @ TXST

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Over 3.5 · SJ @ NSH

Over 3.5 · CGY @ VGK

Under 84.5 · CSU @ TXST

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

OKC ML · OKC @ HOU

Over 3.5 · SJ @ NSH

Over 3.5 · UTA @ EDM

Games, best to worst

Parlays: Today

Over 54.5 · CSU @ TXST

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Over 54.5 · CSU @ TXST

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Over 54.5 · CSU @ TXST

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

Over 54.5 · CSU @ TXST

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

HOU +16.5 · OKC @ HOU

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

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Missing matches

Kalshi games not linked

Our games without a Kalshi price