The combination of Kalshi legs most likely to reach each payout.
Heavy-favorite moneylines are included when they help.
#1
NCAAF
MASS @ BUFF
Sat 10:00 AM
BUFF +5.5
Best spread · book line BUFF -7
EV -11.5%
Model 75%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score 7.4
Best total Over 27.5 book Over 42.5 84% · 89¢ · EV -6.4%
🔥 Sharp play: 78% of money on 51% of bets Pinnacle-based
+ Add BUFF +5.5 + Add Over 27.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -11.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion BUFF +5.5 vs the book's -7: 12.5 extra points. Sharp money 78% of the money on 51% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened -3.5, now -7. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BUFF -7. Form L10 Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +7.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest Signals steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line +17.5 (EV -5.3%)
#2
LIGUE1
BRE @ LILL
Sat 11:45 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV +1.7%
Model 86%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score 6.8
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV +1.7%, priced in your favor). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over -110 / Under -102), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-2-2 (1.2-0.7) · Away 2-3-5 (1.4-1.7) Head to head 0-2-0 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +7.4%)
#1
NFL
LAC @ KC
Sun 01:25 PM
LAC +20.5
Best spread · book line LAC +7.5
EV +0.5%
Model 84%
Price 83¢
Pays 1.19x
Score 5.6
Best total Over 25.5 book Over 41.5 87% · 93¢ · EV -6.5%
+ Add LAC +20.5 + Add Over 25.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV +0.5%, priced in your favor). Cushion LAC +20.5 vs the book's +7.5: 13 extra points. Line move Opened +2.5, now +7.5. Form L10 Home 4-6 (20.3-20.4) · Away 3-7 (17.5-21.7) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -4.5) Rest Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Tre' Harris WR (Doubtful); Brenen Thompson WR (Doubtful) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -10.5 (EV +86.8%)
#3
SERIEA
NAP @ VEN
Sat 06:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV +1.2%
Model 87%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score 4.6
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +1.2%, priced in your favor). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over -103 / Under -109), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 0-6 (0.8-2.7) · Away 5-2-3 (1.6-0.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 4.9d rest · Away 6.8d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +10.1%)
#4
SERIEA
GEN @ ROMA
Sat 11:45 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV +1.0%
Model 89%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score 3.8
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 3.5, now 2.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over +110 / Under -123), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 8-2-0 (2.5-0.5) · Away 1-3-6 (0.6-1.4) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 6.3d rest · Away 7.2d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +15.1%)
#5
BUNDESLIGA
DOR @ FCU
Sat 06:30 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV +0.8%
Model 87%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score 3.1
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.8%, priced in your favor). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.5 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.25 (Over +107 / Under -120), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-2-5 (1.6-2.5) · Away 7-1-2 (2.1-0.9) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -3.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.8d rest Best-value line 5.5 (EV +13.5%)
#6
BUNDESLIGA
FCA @ ELV
Sat 06:30 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV +0.6%
Model 88%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score 2.6
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.5 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.25 (Over -110 / Under -102), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 2-1-2 (1.6-1.6) · Away 5-3-2 (2.2-1.6) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 5.5 (EV +14.4%)
#7
NCAAF
HC @ HARV
Sat 10:00 AM
HC +38.5
Best spread · book line HC +15.5
EV +0.5%
Model 93%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score 2.0
Best total Over 32.5 book Over 49.5 86% · 92¢ · EV -7.0%
+ Add HC +38.5 + Add Over 32.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV +0.5%, about fair). Cushion HC +38.5 vs the book's +15.5: 23 extra points. Form L10 Home 8-2 (28.3-24.1) · Away 4-6 (22.9-28.3) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +35.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.9d rest, road game #3 Best-value line -5.5 (EV +21.3%)
#1
SERIEA
SAS @ FRO
Fri 11:45 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV +0.7%
Model 89%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score 1.5
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV +0.7%, priced in your favor). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.9 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick. Public side 78% of bets are on this side (money 75%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 2.5, now 3.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.25 (Over -121 / Under +109), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-1-2 (1.5-1.2) · Away 3-2-5 (1.5-1.6) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6d rest · Away 5.1d rest Best-value line 5.5 (EV +17.7%)
#8
NCAAF
CCSU @ MERC
Sat 09:00 AM
MERC +31.5
Best spread · book line MERC +7
EV +0.3%
Model 93%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score 1.4
Best total Under 70.5 book Under 53.5 85% · 86¢ · EV -2.6%
+ Add MERC +31.5 + Add Under 70.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair). Cushion MERC +31.5 vs the book's +7: 24.5 extra points. Form L10 Home 3-7 (19.7-34.8) · Away 5-5 (29.3-29.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -7.0) Rest Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
#2
LALIGA
RAC @ OSA
Sun 05:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV +0.3%
Model 96%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score 1.3
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 2-2-6 (0.9-2.1) · Away 2-2-4 (1.6-2.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.7d rest
#9
LALIGA
ATM @ ESP
Sat 05:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV +0.3%
Model 87%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score 1.0
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over +105 / Under -118), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-3-4 (1.4-1.3) · Away 7-1-2 (2.0-1.3) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 7.7d rest · Away 6.9d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +6.3%)
#10
NCAAF
NIU @ WYO
Sat 12:30 PM
NIU +20.5
Best spread · book line NIU +8
EV -1.8%
Model 80%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score 0.7
Best total Over 25.5 book Over 41.5 84% · 92¢ · EV -9.5%
Sharp money +16 Pinnacle-based
+ Add NIU +20.5 + Add Over 25.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -1.8%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 80%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion NIU +20.5 vs the book's +8: 12.5 extra points. Sharp money 58% of the money on 42% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +7.5, now +8. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: NIU +7.5, vs +8 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-7 (11.1-21.1) · Away 2-8 (18.1-29.5) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest Best-value line -14.5 (EV +84.8%)
#11
SERIEA
INT @ BOL
Sat 09:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV +0.1%
Model 84%
Price 83¢
Pays 1.19x
Score 0.5
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV +0.1%, about fair). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.2 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over -117 / Under +104), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-4-3 (1.2-1.2) · Away 7-3-0 (2.7-1.2) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.0) Rest Home 6.1d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +5.7%)
#2
BUNDESLIGA
KOE @ SGE
Fri 11:30 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV –
Model 90%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.5
Public side No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 4 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Public side 88% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Form L10 Home 1-4-5 (1.6-2.7) · Away 2-3-5 (1.4-2.3) Head to head 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 6.1d rest · Away 5.2d rest
#12
EPL
CHE @ EVE
Sat 04:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV –
Model 94%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.5
Public side Pinnacle-based No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over -118 / Under +105), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 2-6-2 (1.4-1.4) · Away 4-2-4 (2.0-2.0) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 5.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
#13
NCAAF
MONM @ UNH
Sat 10:00 AM
Under 74.5
Best total · book line Under 57.5
EV +0.1%
Model 88%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score 0.3
Best spread UNH +19 book UNH +7 91% · no price · EV –
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 74.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +0.1%, about fair). Cushion Under 74.5 vs the book's 57.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 55.6 combined vs the book's 57.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -108 / Under -108), vs 57.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 4-6 (21.4-31.5) · Away 6-4 (29.4-29.0) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +21.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14d rest Best-value line 78.5 (EV +3.9%)
#14
NCAAF
RUT @ UMD
Sat 09:30 AM
Under 71.5
Best total · book line Under 56.5
EV -0.7%
Model 83%
Price 83¢
Pays 1.19x
Score 0.1
Best spread UMD +6.5 book UMD -5.5 75% · 81¢ · EV -8.1%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 71.5 + Add UMD +6.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Cushion Under 71.5 vs the book's 56.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -111 / Under -105), vs 56.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (26.6-19.0) · Away 3-7 (27.0-32.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest Best-value line 77.5 (EV +2.6%)
#15
NCAAF
DAY @ BTLR
Sat 10:00 AM
Over 33.5
Best total · book line Over 48.5
EV –
Model 83%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best spread DAY +17.5 book DAY +5.5 78% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 51.2 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 6-4 (30.7-23.6) · Away 6-4 (28.1-20.0) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +6.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
#16
NCAAF
MCN @ NWST
Sat 10:00 AM
NWST +33
Best spread · book line NWST +21
EV –
Model 77%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Over 39.5 book Over 54.5 83% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion NWST +33 vs the book's +21: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 0-10 (15.3-47.9) · Away 5-5 (27.3-24.9) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -47.0) Rest Home 13.8d rest · Away 13.7d rest
#17
NCAAF
VMI @ WOF
Sat 10:30 AM
VMI +40.5
Best spread · book line VMI +28.5
EV –
Model 79%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Under 62.5 book Under 46.5 83% · 88¢ · EV -6.8%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Under 62.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion VMI +40.5 vs the book's +28.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 7-3 (27.0-20.8) · Away 0-10 (10.4-41.8) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +42.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14d rest
#18
NCAAF
LEH @ COR
Sat 11:00 AM
COR +23.5
Best spread · book line COR +11.5
EV –
Model 77%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Under 62.5 book Under 46.5 84% · 87¢ · EV -4.5%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Under 62.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion COR +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 6-4 (25.4-23.1) · Away 9-1 (31.6-12.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14.1d rest
#19
NCAAF
SDST @ UND
Sat 11:00 AM
UND +23.5
Best spread · book line UND +11.5
EV –
Model 78%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Over 40.5 book Over 56.5 85% · 88¢ · EV -4.7%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Over 40.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion UND +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 6-4 (34.7-26.2) · Away 7-3 (37.0-21.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -3.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 13.8d rest
#20
NCAAF
MRST @ DRKE
Sat 10:00 AM
DRKE +7.5
Best spread · book line DRKE -4.5
EV –
Model 73%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Over 33.5 book Over 48.5 83% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion DRKE +7.5 vs the book's -4.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 4-6 (21.4-28.8) · Away 5-5 (25.8-21.2) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +14.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.8d rest
#21
NCAAF
ALB @ STBK
Sat 11:30 AM
STBK +6
Best spread · book line STBK -6
EV –
Model 75%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Under 61.5 book Under 46.5 81% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion STBK +6 vs the book's -6: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 6-4 (32.6-27.6) · Away 4-6 (20.9-22.5) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +35.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 14d rest
#22
NCAAF
GTWN @ COLG
Sat 10:00 AM
GTWN +30.5
Best spread · book line GTWN +18.5
EV –
Model 79%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Over 24.5 book Over 45.5 90% · 96¢ · EV -6.1%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Over 24.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion GTWN +30.5 vs the book's +18.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 6-4 (24.4-21.0) · Away 3-7 (16.3-27.6) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -4.0) Rest Home 13.8d rest · Away 7d rest
#23
NCAAF
BRWN @ PRIN
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 22.5
Best total · book line Over 37.5
EV –
Model 83%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best spread PRIN +5.5 book PRIN -6.5 75% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion Over 22.5 vs the book's 37.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 41.5 combined vs the book's 37.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 36.5, now 37.5. Form L10 Home 4-6 (20.3-16.7) · Away 4-6 (22.0-23.9) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +19.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
#24
NCAAF
NH @ RMU
Sat 09:00 AM
NH +22
Best spread · book line NH +10
EV –
Model 78%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Over 25.5 book Over 46.5 91% · 96¢ · EV -5.7%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Over 25.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion NH +22 vs the book's +10: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 4-6 (22.5-23.9) · Away 3-7 (22.2-27.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.8d rest, road game #3
#25
NCAAF
URI @ YALE
Sat 09:00 AM
URI +22
Best spread · book line URI +10
EV –
Model 78%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Under 66.5 book Under 50.5 83% · 87¢ · EV -5.2%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Under 66.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion URI +22 vs the book's +10: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 8-2 (30.4-23.0) · Away 6-4 (27.0-23.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14d rest
#26
NCAAF
MRMK @ DART
Sat 10:00 AM
MRMK +23.5
Best spread · book line MRMK +11.5
EV –
Model 77%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Under 63.5 book Under 47.5 83% · 87¢ · EV -5.1%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Under 63.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion MRMK +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 5-5 (23.0-20.6) · Away 3-7 (21.3-31.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14d rest
#27
NCAAF
BRY @ ME
Sat 10:00 AM
BRY +10.5
Best spread · book line BRY -1.5
EV –
Model 76%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Over 23.5 book Over 44.5 91% · 96¢ · EV -5.4%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Over 23.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion BRY +10.5 vs the book's -1.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 3-7 (19.0-29.1) · Away 5-5 (19.9-27.6) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +20.0) Rest Home 13.9d rest · Away 7d rest
#28
NCAAF
DUQ @ STO
Sat 09:00 AM
DUQ +14.5
Best spread · book line DUQ +2.5
EV –
Model 77%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Under 63.5 book Under 46.5 85% · 87¢ · EV -2.6%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Under 63.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion DUQ +14.5 vs the book's +2.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 3-7 (17.2-23.7) · Away 4-6 (20.6-27.2) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -20.0) Rest Home 7d rest, road game #5 · Away 7d rest
#29
NCAAF
CHST @ NCAT
Sat 09:00 AM
CHST +25.5
Best spread · book line CHST +13.5
EV –
Model 76%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Under 70.5 book Under 55.5 82% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion CHST +25.5 vs the book's +13.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 2-8 (18.3-38.0) · Away 1-5 (29.0-39.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest
#30
BUNDESLIGA
RBL @ MUN
Sat 09:30 AM
Under 6.5
Best total · book line Under 4.5
EV –
Model 81%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Pinnacle-based No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion Under 6.5 vs the book's 4.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 4.3 combined vs the book's 4.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 4.5 (Over -111 / Under -101). Form L10 Home 7-3-0 (3.3-1.3) · Away 6-4 (2.5-1.6) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +5.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest
#31
NCAAF
PRES @ STET
Sat 11:00 AM
STET +22.5
Best spread · book line STET +10.5
EV –
Model 76%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Under 75.5 book Under 59.5 84% · 86¢ · EV -3.3%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Under 75.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion STET +22.5 vs the book's +10.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 1-9 (17.4-42.7) · Away 6-4 (27.2-30.3) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -35.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
#32
NCAAF
APSU @ WES
Sat 11:00 AM
WES +33
Best spread · book line WES +21
EV –
Model 79%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Under 72.5 book Under 55.5 85% · 87¢ · EV -2.9%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Under 72.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion WES +33 vs the book's +21: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 4-6 (18.8-27.4) · Away 7-3 (36.9-23.6) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -14.0) Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest
#33
LALIGA
ATH @ VAL
Sat 12:00 PM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV –
Model 93%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Pinnacle-based No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.25 (Over -112 / Under +100), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-2-5 (1.3-1.9) · Away 2-3-5 (1.0-1.4) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +1.5) Rest Home 6d rest · Away 28.2d rest
#34
NCAAF
HAMP @ SHU
Sat 09:00 AM
HAMP +25.5
Best spread · book line HAMP +13.5
EV –
Model 77%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
Best total Over 24.5 book Over 45.5 91% · 95¢ · EV -4.3%
No Kalshi market
+ Add Over 24.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Cushion HAMP +25.5 vs the book's +13.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 5-5 (24.9-25.0) · Away 1-9 (14.3-36.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.9d rest
#3
NFL
DAL @ GB
Sun 05:20 PM
Over 37.5
Best total · book line Over 53
EV -2.4%
Model 87%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -0.1
Best spread DAL +13.5 book DAL +1.5 81% · 86¢ · EV -6.3%
Sharp money +19
+ Add Over 37.5 + Add DAL +13.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 37.5 vs the book's 53: 15.5 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 50.5 combined vs the book's 53, which works against this pick. Sharp money 82% of the money on 63% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 51.5, now 53. Form L10 Home 4-6 (20.1-24.6) · Away 3-7 (25.8-30.5) Head to head 0-1-0 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7.3d rest · Away 10d rest Signals steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 31.5 (EV -1.4%)
#35
LALIGA
ELC @ VIL
Sat 07:15 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -0.1%
Model 87%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -0.5
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.1%, about fair). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.2 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.25 (Over +100 / Under -113), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-2-5 (1.8-1.6) · Away 2-4-4 (1.3-1.8) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +1.5) Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.1d rest Best-value line 4.5 (EV +6.6%)
#36
BUNDESLIGA
M05 @ S04
Sat 06:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.2%
Model 95%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -0.6
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.1 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over +107 / Under -121), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 1-2-2 (0.8-1.2) · Away 4-2-4 (2.2-1.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest
#3
LIGUE1
TOU @ MNS
Fri 11:45 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.3%
Model 95%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -0.9
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.6 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 87% of bets are on this side (money 88%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over +113 / Under -125), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 1-3-2 (1.7-2.0) · Away 3-4-3 (1.7-1.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6d rest · Away 6d rest
#4
LIGUE1
MON @ LOR
Sun 08:15 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.3%
Model 93%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -1.3
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 3-3-4 (1.4-1.3) · Away 5-3-2 (1.8-1.4) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +2.0) Rest Home 7.9d rest · Away 7.9d rest
#5
NFL
BUF @ LV
Sun 01:25 PM
LV +16.5
Best spread · book line LV +4.5
EV -3.0%
Model 81%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -1.7
Best total Over 38.5 book Over 53.5 85% · 88¢ · EV -3.7%
Reverse line move Sharp money +11
+ Add LV +16.5 + Add Over 38.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you). Cushion LV +16.5 vs the book's +4.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 52% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +6.5, now +4.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Form L10 Home 4-6 (19.4-25.3) · Away 8-2 (30.8-24.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 5.8d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +40.8%)
#37
NCAAF
LT @ ULM
Sat 05:00 PM
ULM +27.5
Best spread · book line ULM +15.5
EV -2.2%
Model 78%
Price 79¢
Pays 1.25x
Score -1.8
Best total Under 72.5 book Under 55.5 84% · 87¢ · EV -4.6%
Sharp money +14 Pinnacle-based
+ Add ULM +27.5 + Add Under 72.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion ULM +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 79% of the money on 65% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +14.5, now +15.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: ULM +14.5, vs +15.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 0-10 (20.2-39.0) · Away 6-4 (33.4-27.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +22.3%)
#6
LIGUE1
REN @ PAR
Sun 08:15 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.5%
Model 95%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -1.8
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.5%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 5-2-3 (1.5-0.8) · Away 6-1-3 (1.9-1.9) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -1.0) Rest Home 7.9d rest · Away 7d rest
#38
EPL
AVL @ NEW
Sat 09:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.7%
Model 96%
Price 96¢
Pays 1.04x
Score -1.9
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 93% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over +103 / Under -116), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 4-3-3 (1.7-1.8) · Away 3-3-4 (1.5-1.8) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.0) Rest Home 4.9d rest · Away 7.1d rest
#4
NHL
PIT @ COL
Fri 06:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV -0.3%
Model 91%
Price 91¢
Pays 1.09x
Score -2.3
Public side Pinnacle-based PIT goalie unconfirmed
+ Add Over 3.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair). Cushion Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick. Public side 92% of bets are on this side (money 90%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -121 / Under +107). Goalies PIT goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed. Form L10 Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest Starters PIT: Arturs Silovs, expected, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV% Best-value line 9.5 (EV +24.8%)
#7
LIGUE1
AUX @ HAC
Sun 08:15 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.6%
Model 94%
Price 94¢
Pays 1.06x
Score -2.4
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 94%; Kalshi charges 94¢ (EV -0.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.1 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 1-4-5 (1.1-1.4) · Away 5-5 (1.7-2.1) Head to head 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 4.5 (EV +1.2%)
#39
EPL
LFC @ BRE
Sat 07:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.6%
Model 96%
Price 96¢
Pays 1.04x
Score -2.6
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 92% of bets are on this side (money 92%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 3.5, now 2.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over -109 / Under -103), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-6-1 (1.8-1.2) · Away 2-5-3 (1.3-1.6) Head to head 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 5.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
#8
LIGUE1
NICE @ LYON
Sun 11:45 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.7%
Model 95%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -2.6
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.6 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 5-2-3 (1.9-1.4) · Away 2-5-3 (0.8-1.1) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 9d rest · Away 7.2d rest
#40
NCAAF
MORE @ DAV
Sat 10:00 AM
DAV +12.5
Best spread · book line DAV -1.5
EV -0.7%
Model 79%
Price 78¢
Pays 1.26x
Score -2.7
Best total Under 73.5 book Under 56.5 85% · 86¢ · EV -2.6%
+ Add DAV +12.5 + Add Under 73.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 79% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion DAV +12.5 vs the book's -1.5: 14 extra points. Form L10 Home 3-7 (19.5-36.1) · Away 4-6 (24.1-36.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -4.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line +20.5 (EV +8.4%)
#41
LIGUE1
RCL @ TRY
Sat 11:45 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.7%
Model 96%
Price 96¢
Pays 1.04x
Score -2.9
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.9 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over -103 / Under -110), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 1-1-4 (0.7-2.2) · Away 4-2-4 (1.7-1.3) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6d rest · Away 8d rest
#9
NFL
HOU @ JAC
Sun 06:30 AM
Over 27.5
Best total · book line Over 42.5
EV -3.9%
Model 87%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -2.9
Best spread JAC +9.5 book JAC -2.5 82% · 84¢ · EV -3.6%
Reverse line move Sharp money +15
+ Add Over 27.5 + Add JAC +9.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.9%, priced against you). Cushion Over 27.5 vs the book's 42.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 42.5, which supports this pick. Sharp money 60% of the money on 45% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 40.5, now 42.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Form L10 Home 9-1 (30.5-15.3) · Away 6-4 (25.1-20.9) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6.9d rest Injuries Home - · Away David Montgomery RB (Out); Tank Dell WR (Out) Signals steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 54.5 (EV +1.2%)
#5
MLB
TB @ CLE
Fri 05:00 PM
Over 2.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV -1.4%
Model 92%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -3.1
Best spread TB +1.5 book TB -1.5 67% · 71¢ · EV -7.5%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 2.5 + Add TB +1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -116 / Under +104). Form L10 Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0) Head to head 8-8 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest Best-value line 5.5 (EV +2.3%)
#10
EPL
MUN @ LEE
Sun 06:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.8%
Model 95%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -3.2
Public side
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.8%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.7 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 94% of bets are on this side (money 94%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Form L10 Home 4-4-2 (1.3-1.0) · Away 4-4-2 (1.8-1.3) Head to head 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 8.1d rest · Away 7.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move
#42
NCAAF
CIN @ WVU
Sat 09:00 AM
Under 78.5
Best total · book line Under 63.5
EV +0.0%
Model 83%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -3.4
Best spread WVU +10.5 book WVU -1.5 75% · 82¢ · EV -9.2%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 78.5 + Add WVU +10.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.0%, about fair). Cushion Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 61.5, now 63.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63.5 (Over -106 / Under -110). Form L10 Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 84.5 (EV +0.3%)
#11
SERIEA
COMO @ FIO
Sun 06:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.9%
Model 94%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -3.5
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 94%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.9%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Form L10 Home 2-3-5 (1.0-1.9) · Away 6-3-1 (1.5-0.7) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 7.1d rest
#12
NFL
ARI @ LA
Sun 01:05 PM
Over 34.5
Best total · book line Over 51.5
EV -2.3%
Model 90%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -3.6
Best spread LA +1.5 book LA -12.5 84% · 88¢ · EV -5.3%
Sharp money +11
+ Add Over 34.5 + Add LA +1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 90%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -2.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 34.5 vs the book's 51.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 55.2 combined vs the book's 51.5, which supports this pick. Sharp money 67% of the money on 56% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 47.5, now 51.5. Form L10 Home 5-5 (30.3-25.6) · Away 1-9 (19.8-34.7) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +22.5) Rest Home 5.8d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 53.5 (EV +0.1%)
#13
EPL
SUN @ BOU
Sun 06:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.0%
Model 93%
Price 94¢
Pays 1.06x
Score -4.4
Public side
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 94¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 93% of bets are on this side (money 92%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Form L10 Home 2-5-3 (1.3-1.5) · Away 3-3-4 (1.2-1.5) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 8d rest
#14
SERIEA
ATA @ MIL
Sun 09:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV -1.1%
Model 84%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -4.5
+ Add Under 4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.6 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Form L10 Home 4-3-3 (1.6-1.3) · Away 4-2-4 (1.2-1.2) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6d rest
#15
SERIEA
LEC @ UDI
Sun 03:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.2%
Model 92%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -4.6
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 3-1-6 (1.3-1.5) · Away 5-5 (1.2-1.6) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 5.7d rest · Away 6.9d rest
#16
LIGUE1
OLM @ ANG
Sun 06:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV -1.2%
Model 81%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -4.6
+ Add Under 4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.2%, priced against you). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Form L10 Home 2-3-5 (1.0-1.8) · Away 4-1-5 (1.4-1.3) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.5) Rest Home 7.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest
#43
NCAAF
TOL @ EMU
Sat 12:30 PM
Under 68.5
Best total · book line Under 52.5
EV -1.3%
Model 84%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -4.6
Best spread TOL +5.5 book TOL -6.5 77% · 81¢ · EV -6.5%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 68.5 + Add TOL +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you). Cushion Under 68.5 vs the book's 52.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 48.9 combined vs the book's 52.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 53.5, now 52.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 53 (Over -108 / Under -108), vs 52.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-4 (23.0-23.4) · Away 8-2 (34.5-16.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 35.5 (EV +11.0%)
#17
EPL
CRY @ BRI
Sun 06:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.4%
Model 96%
Price 97¢
Pays 1.03x
Score -5.0
Public side
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 97¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Form L10 Home 5-1-4 (2.2-1.2) · Away 2-3-5 (1.4-2.1) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 7d rest
#6
LALIGA
LEV @ DEP
Fri 12:00 PM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.3%
Model 94%
Price 94¢
Pays 1.06x
Score -5.1
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 94%; Kalshi charges 94¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.2 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 86% of bets are on this side (money 78%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.5 (Over -117 / Under +106). Form L10 Home 2-4-2 (1.5-1.4) · Away 3-3-4 (1.7-1.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 5.2d rest · Away 4d rest
#18
BUNDESLIGA
SCF @ B04
Sun 06:30 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -1.3%
Model 86%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -5.2
+ Add Over 1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.8 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 5-2-3 (2.3-1.6) · Away 6-2-2 (2.3-1.4) Head to head 1-1-0 (avg margin +1.0) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 6.9d rest
#44
NCAAF
KU @ KSU
Sat 09:00 AM
Under 71.5
Best total · book line Under 55.5
EV -1.3%
Model 84%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -5.2
Best spread KSU +7.5 book KSU -4.5 76% · 85¢ · EV -11.6%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 71.5 + Add KSU +7.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you). Cushion Under 71.5 vs the book's 55.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 54.8 combined vs the book's 55.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 54.5, now 55.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -108 / Under -108). Form L10 Home 6-4 (32.5-22.7) · Away 3-7 (27.8-26.5) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +25.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 74.5 (EV -0.8%)
#19
LALIGA
ALA @ CEL
Sun 07:15 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV -1.4%
Model 91%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -5.5
+ Add Under 4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 2-6-2 (1.0-0.7) · Away 4-2-4 (1.4-1.0) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 8d rest Best-value line 5.5 (EV -1.3%)
#20
LALIGA
RSO @ MCF
Sun 09:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.4%
Model 94%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -5.5
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 94%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.9 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 0-4-4 (0.5-1.6) · Away 4-2-4 (1.6-2.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 8.9d rest · Away 7.1d rest
#45
NCAAF
NAVY @ UTSA
Sat 05:00 PM
Under 72.5
Best total · book line Under 55.5
EV -2.8%
Model 85%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -5.7
Best spread UTSA +5.5 book UTSA -6.5 75% · 84¢ · EV -11.5%
Reverse line move Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 72.5 + Add UTSA +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -2.8%, priced against you). Cushion Under 72.5 vs the book's 55.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 55.2 combined vs the book's 55.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 56.5, now 55.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -102 / Under -115), vs 55.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (32.1-26.8) · Away 5-5 (24.8-26.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 9d rest · Away 7.2d rest Best-value line 36.5 (EV +8.4%)
#46
NCAAF
MIZ @ MISS
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 41.5
Best total · book line Over 58.5
EV -3.7%
Model 85%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -5.7
Best spread MISS +6.5 book MISS -5.5 74% · 81¢ · EV -9.6%
Reverse line move Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 41.5 + Add MISS +6.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -3.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 41.5 vs the book's 58.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 56.2 combined vs the book's 58.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 57.5, now 58.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 58.5 (Over -113 / Under -103). Form L10 Home 9-1 (37.9-22.3) · Away 7-3 (31.8-20.5) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 38.5 (EV -3.4%)
#7
NCAAF
APP @ CC
Fri 05:00 PM
Over 33.5
Best total · book line Over 48.5
EV -1.9%
Model 85%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -5.8
Best spread CC +13.5 book CC +1.5 77% · 81¢ · EV -5.9%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 33.5 + Add CC +13.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.9%, priced against you). Cushion Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 53.5, now 48.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -106 / Under -110). Form L10 Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 66.5 (EV +11.7%)
#8
NHL
BOS @ ANA
Fri 07:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV -1.6%
Model 87%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -5.8
Public side Pinnacle-based BOS goalie unconfirmed ANA goalie unconfirmed
+ Add Over 3.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 5.9 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick. Public side 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -117 / Under +104), vs 6.5 at other books. Goalies BOS goalie unconfirmed; ANA goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed. Form L10 Home 6-4 (3.6-2.9) · Away 7-3 (3.4-2.0) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +1.5) Rest Home 3d rest · Away 2.9d rest Starters BOS: Jeremy Swayman, expected, #1 goalie, 0.930 SV% | ANA: Lukas Dostal, expected, #1 goalie, 0.892 SV% Signals reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 7.5 (EV +5.0%)
#21
LALIGA
SEV @ RMA
Sun 12:00 PM
Under 5.5
Best total · book line Under 3.5
EV -1.5%
Model 86%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -6.1
+ Add Under 5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -1.5%, priced against you). Cushion Under 5.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 8-2 (2.4-1.0) · Away 4-2-4 (1.3-1.4) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +1.5) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 6d rest Best-value line 0.5 (EV -0.7%)
#47
NCAAF
OHIO @ SAC
Sat 07:00 PM
SAC +27.5
Best spread · book line SAC +15.5
EV -1.9%
Model 81%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -6.5
Best total Over 32.5 book Over 47.5 83% · 89¢ · EV -7.2%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add SAC +27.5 + Add Over 32.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.9%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion SAC +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +13.5, now +15.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: SAC +14.5, vs +15.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 4-6 (23.5-26.9) · Away 7-3 (27.5-22.5) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.4d rest · Away 7.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +62.9%)
#48
EPL
IPS @ MCI
Sat 07:00 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -1.8%
Model 87%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -6.6
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.8%, priced against you). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick. Public side 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.5 (Over +100 / Under -115). Form L10 Home 8-1-1 (2.4-0.8) · Away 3-3 (1.5-2.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 0.5 (EV -1.0%)
#22
BUNDESLIGA
TSG @ BMG
Sun 08:30 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -1.7%
Model 87%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -6.6
+ Add Over 1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.8 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 2-2-6 (1.4-2.2) · Away 4-1-5 (1.7-2.2) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 8.1d rest Best-value line 0.5 (EV -0.9%)
#49
NCAAF
FLA @ TEX
Sat 09:00 AM
FLA +23.5
Best spread · book line FLA +11.5
EV -2.2%
Model 78%
Price 79¢
Pays 1.25x
Score -7.1
Best total Over 36.5 book Over 51.5 84% · 87¢ · EV -4.0%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add FLA +23.5 + Add Over 36.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion FLA +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +9.5, now +11.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: FLA +11.5. Form L10 Home 8-2 (32.5-23.8) · Away 5-5 (33.2-29.8) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -8.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -10.5 (EV +59.2%)
#23
EPL
ARS @ NFO
Sun 08:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.8%
Model 93%
Price 94¢
Pays 1.06x
Score -7.4
Public side
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 94¢ (EV -1.8%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Public side 93% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Form L10 Home 2-4-4 (1.2-1.4) · Away 9-1 (1.7-0.6) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.5) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 8.2d rest
#50
NCAAF
UNM @ HAW
Sat 07:30 PM
HAW +27.5
Best spread · book line HAW +14.5
EV -4.5%
Model 78%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -7.5
Best total Over 27.5 book Over 44.5 87% · 93¢ · EV -7.2%
Reverse line move Sharp money +11 Pinnacle-based
+ Add HAW +27.5 + Add Over 27.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -4.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion HAW +27.5 vs the book's +14.5: 13 extra points. Sharp money 57% of the money on 46% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +16.5, now +14.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: HAW +14.5. Form L10 Home 3-7 (21.3-25.0) · Away 9-1 (35.3-13.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +42.5%)
#51
LALIGA
BAR @ BET
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -2.1%
Model 92%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -8.4
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 1.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.9 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 4 (Over -104 / Under -108), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-1-2 (1.7-1.3) · Away 9-1 (3.8-1.1) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -2.0) Rest Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 0.5 (EV -0.7%)
#52
LIGUE1
PSG @ STR
Sat 08:15 AM
Under 5.5
Best total · book line Under 3.5
EV -2.2%
Model 83%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -8.6
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you). Cushion Under 5.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.5 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.5 (Over -110 / Under -102). Form L10 Home 4-2-4 (2.0-2.0) · Away 5-3-2 (1.7-1.2) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 6.1d rest · Away 6.9d rest
#24
SERIEA
LAZ @ JUV
Sun 11:45 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV -2.2%
Model 88%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -8.6
+ Add Under 4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 4-4-2 (1.3-1.0) · Away 7-1-2 (1.5-1.1) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.2d rest Best-value line 3.5 (EV -1.1%)
#53
NCAAF
ARST @ USM
Sat 04:00 PM
Under 79.5
Best total · book line Under 62.5
EV -0.2%
Model 87%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -8.8
Best spread USM +20.5 book USM +6.5 81% · 82¢ · EV -2.9%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 79.5 + Add USM +20.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair). Cushion Under 79.5 vs the book's 62.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 57.4 combined vs the book's 62.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 56.5, now 62.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 62.5 (Over -104 / Under -112). Form L10 Home 3-7 (27.5-32.6) · Away 4-6 (27.3-27.3) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +6.0) Rest Home 11d rest · Away 9d rest Signals steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 43.5 (EV +9.1%)
#54
NCAAF
FAU @ ARMY
Sat 09:00 AM
Under 71.5
Best total · book line Under 54.5
EV -2.0%
Model 84%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -8.9
Best spread ARMY +9.5 book ARMY -2.5 76% · 79¢ · EV -5.1%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 71.5 + Add ARMY +9.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you). Cushion Under 71.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 55 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 59.5, now 54.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 54.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-4 (25.5-19.3) · Away 5-5 (33.0-32.1) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.8d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 74.5 (EV -0.5%)
#55
NCAAF
CHA @ TEM
Sat 10:00 AM
CHA +33.5
Best spread · book line CHA +21
EV -3.4%
Model 80%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -9.0
Best total Over 29.5 book Over 46.5 87% · 93¢ · EV -7.1%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add CHA +33.5 + Add Over 29.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -3.4%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion CHA +33.5 vs the book's +21: 12.5 extra points. Line move Opened +23.5, now +21. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: CHA +21. Form L10 Home 2-8 (21.4-30.6) · Away 0-10 (12.8-39.1) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +35.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line +2.5 (EV +43.0%)
#56
NCAAF
GAST @ JMU
Sat 09:00 AM
GAST +23.5
Best spread · book line GAST +10.5
EV -4.5%
Model 77%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score -9.0
Best total Under 73.5 book Under 57.5 84% · 86¢ · EV -3.5%
Reverse line move Pinnacle-based
+ Add GAST +23.5 + Add Under 73.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -4.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 77% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion GAST +23.5 vs the book's +10.5: 13 extra points. Line move Opened +12.5, now +10.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: GAST +10.5. Form L10 Home 10-0 (42.3-14.4) · Away 4-6 (30.2-26.1) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +7.0) Rest Home 6.7d rest · Away 13.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -11.5 (EV +34.9%)
#9
NCAAF
WASH @ PUR
Fri 05:00 PM
WASH +16.5
Best spread · book line WASH +3
EV -1.3%
Model 82%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -9.3
Best total Over 35.5 book Over 50.5 83% · 85¢ · EV -3.9%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add WASH +16.5 + Add Over 35.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 82%; adjusted to 82% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion WASH +16.5 vs the book's +3: 13.5 extra points. Line move Opened +1.5, now +3. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: WASH +3. Form L10 Home 3-7 (23.5-34.8) · Away 5-5 (27.8-19.9) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -36.0) Rest Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -14.5 (EV +57.1%)
#10
NCAAF
MEM @ TULN
Fri 04:30 PM
Over 37.5
Best total · book line Over 54.5
EV -3.5%
Model 85%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -9.4
Best spread MEM +5.5 book MEM -7 76% · 82¢ · EV -8.9%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 37.5 + Add MEM +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you). Cushion Over 37.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 54.5 (Over -106 / Under -110). Form L10 Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +6.0) Rest Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest
#57
NCAAF
AKR @ M-OH
Sat 12:30 PM
AKR +21.5
Best spread · book line AKR +9.5
EV -3.6%
Model 78%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score -9.6
Best total Over 29.5 book Over 46.5 86% · 92¢ · EV -6.6%
Sharp money +10 Pinnacle-based
+ Add AKR +21.5 + Add Over 29.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -3.6%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion AKR +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 49% of the money on 39% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: AKR +9.5. Form L10 Home 5-5 (25.2-25.6) · Away 4-6 (24.0-27.7) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +13.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line -13.5 (EV +68.8%)
#58
NCAAF
GT @ VT
Sat 12:30 PM
GT +21.5
Best spread · book line GT +9.5
EV -2.5%
Model 78%
Price 79¢
Pays 1.25x
Score -9.9
Best total Under 72.5 book Under 56.5 84% · 86¢ · EV -3.0%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add GT +21.5 + Add Under 72.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -2.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion GT +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points. Public side 77% of bets are on this side (money 77%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: GT +9.5. Form L10 Home 4-6 (28.0-24.7) · Away 4-6 (28.6-28.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -15.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -10.5 (EV +65.2%)
#59
NCAAF
WSU @ ORST
Sat 03:00 PM
Under 67.5
Best total · book line Under 52.5
EV -2.5%
Model 84%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -9.9
Best spread ORST -6.5 book ORST -18.5 71% · 79¢ · EV -10.8%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 67.5 + Add ORST -6.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.5%, priced against you). Cushion Under 67.5 vs the book's 52.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 45.4 combined vs the book's 52.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 48.5, now 52.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 52.5 (Over -108 / Under -108). Form L10 Home 5-5 (30.0-22.3) · Away 3-7 (19.8-18.7) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin -10.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.9d rest Best-value line 28.5 (EV +37.8%)
#25
NFL
CAR @ PHI
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 21.5
Best total · book line Over 39
EV -2.9%
Model 91%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -10.2
Best spread CAR +9.5 book CAR -3.5 81% · 87¢ · EV -7.2%
+ Add Over 21.5 + Add CAR +9.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -2.9%, priced against you). Cushion Over 21.5 vs the book's 39: 17.5 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 42.7 combined vs the book's 39, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 43.5, now 39. Form L10 Home 5-5 (20.1-18.8) · Away 4-6 (22.5-24.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 13.7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Jalen Hurts QB (Out); A.J. Dillon RB (Out); Will Shipley RB (Out) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 51.5 (EV +8.7%)
#60
NCAAF
CCH @ CLEM
Sat 09:00 AM
Under 72.5
Best total · book line Under 57.5
EV -2.6%
Model 86%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -10.2
Best spread CLEM -24.5 book CLEM -42.5 75% · 89¢ · EV -16.4%
+ Add Under 72.5 + Add CLEM -24.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you). Cushion Under 72.5 vs the book's 57.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 44.7 combined vs the book's 57.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 58.5, now 57.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (25.9-22.8) · Away 6-4 (22.8-17.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 13.7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 39.5 (EV +14.5%)
#61
NCAAF
MSST @ LSU
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 42.5
Best total · book line Over 57.5
EV -3.3%
Model 82%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -10.3
Best spread MSST +27.5 book MSST +15.5 78% · 78¢ · EV -2.1%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 42.5 + Add MSST +27.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -3.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 42.5 vs the book's 57.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 58.8 combined vs the book's 57.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 58.5, now 57.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 57 (Over -109 / Under -107), vs 57.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-4 (31.0-18.0) · Away 5-5 (33.8-34.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6.7d rest · Away 14d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 59.5 (EV -3.2%)
#62
BUNDESLIGA
SCP @ SVW
Sat 06:30 AM
Under 5.5
Best total · book line Under 3.5
EV -2.7%
Model 89%
Price 91¢
Pays 1.09x
Score -10.8
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you). Cushion Under 5.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.6 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 2.5, now 3.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over -113 / Under +101), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-3-4 (1.5-1.8) · Away 1-1-3 (0.6-1.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.8d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 4.5 (EV -2.2%)
#63
NCAAF
OKST @ HOU
Sat 04:30 PM
Over 45.5
Best total · book line Over 62.5
EV -6.3%
Model 83%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -10.8
Best spread OKST +16.5 book OKST +4.5 76% · 80¢ · EV -6.8%
Reverse line move Sharp money +19 Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 45.5 + Add OKST +16.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -6.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 45.5 vs the book's 62.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 53 combined vs the book's 62.5, which works against this pick. Sharp money 59% of the money on 40% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 57.5, now 62.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63 (Over -101 / Under -115), vs 62.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (35.0-22.8) · Away 4-6 (24.5-23.8) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +22.0) Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 42.5 (EV -5.5%)
#1
NFL
WAS @ SF
Mon 05:15 PM
Over 35.5
Best total · book line Over 51.5
EV -2.4%
Model 88%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -11.1
Best spread SF +4.5 book SF -7.5 81% · 89¢ · EV -9.3%
+ Add Over 35.5 + Add SF +4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 35.5 vs the book's 51.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 50 combined vs the book's 51.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 50.5, now 51.5. Form L10 Home 9-1 (31.0-20.3) · Away 3-1-6 (20.9-27.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 8.2d rest · Away 8.3d rest Injuries Home - · Away Deebo Samuel WR (Out) Best-value line 29.5 (EV -1.8%)
#26
NFL
NO @ NYG
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 45.5
EV -4.6%
Model 86%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -11.4
Best spread NYG +13.5 book NYG +1.5 82% · 85¢ · EV -5.0%
Sharp money +14
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add NYG +13.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 45.5, which supports this pick. Sharp money 74% of the money on 60% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 44.5, now 45.5. Form L10 Home 5-1-4 (22.6-21.1) · Away 5-5 (24.2-23.9) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -12.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 24.5 (EV -3.4%)
#27
NFL
NYJ @ NE
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 26.5
Best total · book line Over 43.5
EV -4.1%
Model 90%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -11.6
Best spread NE +4.5 book NE -7.5 82% · 87¢ · EV -6.4%
Sharp money +10
+ Add Over 26.5 + Add NE +4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 90%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -4.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 26.5 vs the book's 43.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 45 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick. Sharp money 71% of the money on 61% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 42.5, now 43.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (28.2-18.8) · Away 2-8 (14.7-28.4) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +22.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Breece Hall RB (Out); Adonai Mitchell WR (Out); TreVeyon Henderson RB (Doubtful) Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 44.5 (EV -1.8%)
#64
NCAAF
ELO @ STAN
Sat 04:30 PM
Under 72.5
Best total · book line Under 56.5
EV -2.0%
Model 85%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -12.2
Public side
+ Add Under 72.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you). Cushion Under 72.5 vs the book's 56.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 51.3 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick. Public side 85% of bets are on this side (money 77%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 52.5, now 56.5. Form L10 Home 3-7 (18.0-36.3) · Away 6-4 (28.6-19.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.2d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 75.5 (EV +0.3%)
#65
NCAAF
LOU @ SYR
Sat 04:30 PM
Under 71.5
Best total · book line Under 55.5
EV -2.7%
Model 84%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -12.9
Best spread SYR +27.5 book SYR +15.5 78% · 80¢ · EV -4.2%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Under 71.5 + Add SYR +27.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you). Cushion Under 71.5 vs the book's 55.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 56.6 combined vs the book's 55.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -107 / Under -109). Form L10 Home 2-8 (21.9-33.0) · Away 4-6 (32.9-25.3) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest, road game #3 · Away 8d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 35.5 (EV +6.1%)
#66
NCAAF
PSU @ MICH
Sat 12:30 PM
PSU +20.5
Best spread · book line PSU +6.5
EV -4.6%
Model 82%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -12.9
Best total Over 27.5 book Over 42.5 83% · 87¢ · EV -5.8%
Sharp money +11 Pinnacle-based
+ Add PSU +20.5 + Add Over 27.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 82%; adjusted to 82% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion PSU +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points. Sharp money 84% of the money on 73% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: PSU +6.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (24.5-18.4) · Away 6-4 (31.2-19.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 14.1d rest · Away 6.8d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line -14.5 (EV +78.0%)
#28
NFL
TEN @ IND
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 29.5
Best total · book line Over 44.5
EV -3.6%
Model 87%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -12.9
Best spread IND +5.5 book IND -7 80% · 88¢ · EV -9.7%
+ Add Over 29.5 + Add IND +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 29.5 vs the book's 44.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 48.2 combined vs the book's 44.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 47.5, now 44.5. Form L10 Home 2-8 (23.3-30.1) · Away 2-8 (17.2-25.9) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +22.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Ashton Dulin WR (Doubtful) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 53.5 (EV -0.3%)
#29
NFL
BAL @ CLE
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 23.5
Best total · book line Over 40.5
EV -2.6%
Model 90%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -13.0
Best spread BAL +9.5 book BAL -3 83% · 87¢ · EV -6.0%
Public side
+ Add Over 23.5 + Add BAL +9.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 90%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 23.5 vs the book's 40.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 45.2 combined vs the book's 40.5, which supports this pick. Public side 79% of bets are on this side (money 74%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 44.5, now 40.5. Form L10 Home 5-5 (17.8-22.1) · Away 6-4 (28.1-22.4) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -15.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6.7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Raheim Sanders RB (Out); KC Concepcion WR (Doubtful) Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 44.5 (EV +1.6%)
#67
NCAAF
UVA @ SMU
Sat 09:00 AM
UVA +21.5
Best spread · book line UVA +9.5
EV -4.4%
Model 78%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score -13.9
Best total Over 34.5 book Over 51.5 85% · 90¢ · EV -5.8%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add UVA +21.5 + Add Over 34.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -4.4%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion UVA +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +6.5, now +9.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: UVA +10, vs +9.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (32.9-20.5) · Away 6-4 (28.7-18.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 14d rest · Away 6.7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -14.5 (EV +45.8%)
#68
EPL
HUL @ FUL
Sat 07:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -3.0%
Model 92%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -14.4
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 0.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Public side 92% of bets are on this side (money 87%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over +101 / Under -114), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 1-3-6 (0.9-1.5) · Away 2-3-1 (1.3-1.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6d rest
#69
NCAAF
TCU @ BAY
Sat 04:00 PM
TCU +17.5
Best spread · book line TCU +5.5
EV -6.4%
Model 77%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -15.1
Best total Over 31.5 book Over 48.5 85% · 89¢ · EV -5.0%
Reverse line move Sharp money +11 Pinnacle-based
+ Add TCU +17.5 + Add Over 31.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -6.4%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 77%; adjusted to 77% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion TCU +17.5 vs the book's +5.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 50% of the money on 39% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +6.5, now +5.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: TCU +6, vs +5.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 5-5 (29.3-24.2) · Away 5-5 (24.2-18.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -6.0) Rest Home 13.9d rest · Away 14d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -11.5 (EV +60.0%)
#70
NCAAF
OSU @ IU
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 34.5
Best total · book line Over 50.5
EV -3.3%
Model 83%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -15.2
Best spread OSU +9.5 book OSU -3 76% · 82¢ · EV -8.2%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 34.5 + Add OSU +9.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -3.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 34.5 vs the book's 50.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 49.3 combined vs the book's 50.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 48.5, now 50.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 50.5 (Over -103 / Under -113). Form L10 Home 10-0 (36.8-11.5) · Away 8-2 (38.3-12.0) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +3.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest Best-value line 51.5 (EV -2.1%)
#71
NCAAF
UTAH @ COLO
Sat 07:15 PM
Over 32.5
Best total · book line Over 49.5
EV -3.6%
Model 86%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -15.3
Best spread UTAH -2.5 book UTAH -14.5 78% · 83¢ · EV -7.3%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 32.5 + Add UTAH -2.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -3.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 32.5 vs the book's 49.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 56.4 combined vs the book's 49.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 50.5, now 49.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49 (Over -110 / Under -106), vs 49.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 2-8 (17.0-32.7) · Away 10-0 (44.9-18.2) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -46.0) Rest Home 14.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 71.5 (EV +6.8%)
#72
NCAAF
NEB @ ORE
Sat 08:00 PM
NEB +20.5
Best spread · book line NEB +6.5
EV -4.1%
Model 80%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -15.8
Best total Over 34.5 book Over 51.5 85% · 89¢ · EV -4.9%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add NEB +20.5 + Add Over 34.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -4.1%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 80%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion NEB +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points. Public side 76% of bets are on this side (money 77%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened +21.5, now +6.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: NEB +7, vs +6.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 8-2 (35.4-18.7) · Away 6-4 (30.6-21.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.3d rest · Away 7.5d rest Signals reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line -11.5 (EV +39.6%)
#73
NCAAF
ND @ BYU
Sat 04:30 PM
BYU +23.5
Best spread · book line BYU +10.5
EV -3.2%
Model 78%
Price 79¢
Pays 1.25x
Score -16.0
Best total Over 29.5 book Over 46.5 87% · 91¢ · EV -5.3%
+ Add BYU +23.5 + Add Over 29.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -3.2%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion BYU +23.5 vs the book's +10.5: 13 extra points. Line move Opened +10, now +10.5. Form L10 Home 8-2 (29.8-17.8) · Away 10-0 (46.9-11.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.9d rest · Away 7.2d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +37.3%)
#74
NCAAF
BAMA @ TENN
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 35.5
Best total · book line Over 50.5
EV -4.4%
Model 84%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -16.2
Best spread BAMA +4.5 book BAMA -7.5 76% · 83¢ · EV -9.5%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 35.5 + Add BAMA +4.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -4.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 35.5 vs the book's 50.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 54.7 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 56.5, now 50.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 51 (Over -107 / Under -109), vs 50.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (33.2-19.1) · Away 7-3 (37.6-19.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -17.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 59.5 (EV +3.7%)
#75
NCAAF
NW @ MSU
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 32.5
Best total · book line Over 49.5
EV -4.6%
Model 86%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -16.5
Best spread NW +5.5 book NW -7 76% · 85¢ · EV -11.1%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 32.5 + Add NW +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 32.5 vs the book's 49.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 49 combined vs the book's 49.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 48.5, now 49.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49.5 (Over -110 / Under -106). Form L10 Home 3-7 (21.3-25.3) · Away 5-5 (28.8-22.6) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 51.5 (EV -1.9%)
#76
NCAAF
ARK @ VAN
Sat 04:00 PM
Over 34.5
Best total · book line Over 49.5
EV -3.5%
Model 85%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -16.6
Best spread VAN +5.5 book VAN -6.5 76% · 81¢ · EV -7.9%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 34.5 + Add VAN +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you). Cushion Over 34.5 vs the book's 49.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 56.9 combined vs the book's 49.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 48.5, now 49.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 50.5 (Over -102 / Under -114), vs 49.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-4 (31.0-29.0) · Away 2-8 (22.7-31.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest Best-value line 58.5 (EV +3.9%)
#77
NCAAF
ASU @ TTU
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 34.5
Best total · book line Over 50.5
EV -4.7%
Model 84%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -17.3
Best spread ASU +27.5 book ASU +15.5 76% · 80¢ · EV -5.8%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 34.5 + Add ASU +27.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -4.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 34.5 vs the book's 50.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 51.2 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick. Public side 83% of bets are on this side (money 86%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 50 (Over -110 / Under -106), vs 50.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 10-0 (37.7-12.4) · Away 6-4 (27.7-24.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -4.0) Rest Home 13.8d rest · Away 6.7d rest Best-value line 55.5 (EV +3.9%)
#78
NCAAF
WF @ CAL
Sat 07:30 PM
Over 36.5
Best total · book line Over 53.5
EV -4.6%
Model 86%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -17.8
Best spread WF +2.5 book WF -10 76% · 81¢ · EV -7.0%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 36.5 + Add WF +2.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 36.5 vs the book's 53.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 54.8 combined vs the book's 53.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 54.5, now 53.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 53.5 (Over -107 / Under -109). Form L10 Home 5-5 (25.8-27.6) · Away 8-2 (34.9-21.3) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.3d rest · Away 7.4d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 55.5 (EV -1.7%)
#30
NFL
CHI @ ATL
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 35.5
Best total · book line Over 51.5
EV -4.2%
Model 87%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -18.0
Best spread ATL +13.5 book ATL +1.5 80% · 85¢ · EV -6.3%
+ Add Over 35.5 + Add ATL +13.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -4.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 35.5 vs the book's 51.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 46.3 combined vs the book's 51.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 47.5, now 51.5. Form L10 Home 6-4 (22.9-24.7) · Away 5-5 (24.7-20.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6.7d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Kyle Monangai RB (Doubtful) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 26.5 (EV -0.9%)
#11
NCAAF
COLU @ PENN
Fri 04:00 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 47.5
EV -4.6%
Model 86%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -18.2
Best spread COLU +18.5 book COLU +6.5 77% · 80¢ · EV -5.3%
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add COLU +18.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 47.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 47.6 combined vs the book's 47.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 46.5, now 47.5. Form L10 Home 5-5 (21.4-22.8) · Away 4-6 (21.4-29.7) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +14.0) Rest Home 6.2d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 66.5 (EV +0.6%)
#79
NCAAF
AUB @ UGA
Sat 12:30 PM
UGA -7.5
Best spread · book line UGA -19.5
EV -6.1%
Model 74%
Price 78¢
Pays 1.26x
Score -19.1
Best total Over 32.5 book Over 49.5 86% · 91¢ · EV -5.7%
Sharp money +11 Pinnacle-based
+ Add UGA -7.5 + Add Over 32.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 74%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -6.1%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 75%; adjusted to 74% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion UGA -7.5 vs the book's -19.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 72% of the money on 61% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened -16.5, now -19.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: UGA -20, vs -19.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 10-0 (39.1-11.3) · Away 5-5 (29.0-23.0) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +10.0) Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 14d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -38.5 (EV +4.2%)
#80
NCAAF
UNLV @ AFA
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 47.5
EV -4.9%
Model 86%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -19.5
Best spread UNLV +13.5 book UNLV +1.5 77% · 84¢ · EV -9.2%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add UNLV +13.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -4.9%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 47.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 46.1 combined vs the book's 47.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 48.5, now 47.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -107 / Under -109), vs 47.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-4 (24.8-19.0) · Away 7-3 (26.8-21.6) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -3.0) Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 27.5 (EV -4.7%)
#81
NCAAF
PITT @ BC
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 28.5
Best total · book line Over 43.5
EV -5.0%
Model 83%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -19.6
Best spread PITT +5.5 book PITT -6.5 76% · 82¢ · EV -8.0%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 28.5 + Add PITT +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -5.0%, priced against you). Cushion Over 28.5 vs the book's 43.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 50.1 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick. Public side 82% of bets are on this side (money 83%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 47.5, now 43.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -109 / Under -107), vs 43.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-7 (21.0-27.3) · Away 7-3 (30.8-21.1) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -41.0) Rest Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 52.5 (EV +8.8%)
#31
NFL
PIT @ TB
Sun 10:00 AM
PIT +9.5
Best spread · book line PIT -2.5
EV -5.9%
Model 81%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -19.6
Best total Over 22.5 book Over 39.5 90% · 94¢ · EV -4.8%
+ Add PIT +9.5 + Add Over 22.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -5.9%, priced against you). Cushion PIT +9.5 vs the book's -2.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +1.5, now -2.5. Form L10 Home 2-8 (20.1-22.2) · Away 7-3 (22.7-20.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 9.7d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Ben Skowronek WR (Out); Roman Wilson WR (Out) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -10.5 (EV +16.7%)
#82
NCAAF
TLSA @ RICE
Sat 01:30 PM
RICE +16.5
Best spread · book line RICE +4.5
EV -7.0%
Model 76%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -20.4
Best total Over 29.5 book Over 46.5 86% · 92¢ · EV -6.8%
Sharp money +15 Pinnacle-based
+ Add RICE +16.5 + Add Over 29.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 76%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -7.0%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 77%; adjusted to 76% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion RICE +16.5 vs the book's +4.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 61% of the money on 46% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +3, now +4.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: RICE +3.5, vs +4.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 2-8 (16.7-32.8) · Away 5-5 (26.7-25.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line -17.5 (EV +40.9%)
#83
NCAAF
UK @ OU
Sat 04:30 PM
UK +20.5
Best spread · book line UK +6.5
EV -4.5%
Model 81%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -21.3
Best total Over 28.5 book Over 43.5 84% · 88¢ · EV -5.6%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add UK +20.5 + Add Over 28.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -4.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 82%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion UK +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points. Public side 79% of bets are on this side (money 72%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: UK +6.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (23.1-18.9) · Away 7-3 (30.5-27.1) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line -11.5 (EV +52.2%)
#84
NCAAF
UNC @ DUKE
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 46.5
EV -5.4%
Model 85%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -22.0
Best spread UNC +16.5 book UNC +3 78% · 84¢ · EV -8.1%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add UNC +16.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -5.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 46.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 49.5 combined vs the book's 46.5, which supports this pick. Public side 77% of bets are on this side (money 76%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 54.5, now 46.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 47 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 46.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (32.9-22.0) · Away 5-5 (22.0-22.2) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +7.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 60.5 (EV -0.8%)
#85
NCAAF
KENT @ USF
Sat 04:00 PM
USF -7.5
Best spread · book line USF -20.5
EV -7.4%
Model 76%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -24.0
Best total Over 30.5 book Over 45.5 84% · 88¢ · EV -5.4%
Reverse line move Pinnacle-based
+ Add USF -7.5 + Add Over 30.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 76%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -7.4%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 77%; adjusted to 76% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion USF -7.5 vs the book's -20.5: 13 extra points. Line move Opened -18.5, now -20.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: USF -20.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (35.0-18.9) · Away 4-6 (18.8-30.6) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 9d rest · Away 7.1d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -41.5 (EV +18.6%)
#86
NCAAF
TROY @ UL
Sat 02:00 PM
TROY +16.5
Best spread · book line TROY +3
EV -8.8%
Model 78%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -24.0
Best total Over 34.5 book Over 49.5 82% · 87¢ · EV -6.4%
Reverse line move Sharp money +12 Pinnacle-based
+ Add TROY +16.5 + Add Over 34.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -8.8%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion TROY +16.5 vs the book's +3: 13.5 extra points. Sharp money 59% of the money on 47% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +3.5, now +3 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: TROY +3. Form L10 Home 8-2 (31.4-24.7) · Away 5-5 (22.3-24.4) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -12.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 10.9d rest Best-value line -17.5 (EV +36.0%)
#87
NCAAF
FSU @ MIA
Sat 04:00 PM
Over 39.5
Best total · book line Over 56.5
EV -6.0%
Model 84%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -24.4
Best spread MIA -7.5 book MIA -20.5 77% · 82¢ · EV -7.3%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 39.5 + Add MIA -7.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -6.0%, priced against you). Cushion Over 39.5 vs the book's 56.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 53.5, now 56.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -112 / Under -104), vs 56.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 9-1 (41.9-11.6) · Away 4-6 (26.2-25.1) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +6.0) Rest Home 14d rest · Away 8d rest Best-value line 36.5 (EV -4.4%)
#88
NCAAF
FRES @ SDSU
Sat 07:30 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 45.5
EV -6.0%
Model 83%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -24.5
Best spread SDSU +20.5 book SDSU +7.5 77% · 81¢ · EV -5.8%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add SDSU +20.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -6.0%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 46.8 combined vs the book's 45.5, which supports this pick. Public side 75% of bets are on this side (money 74%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 44.5, now 45.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 46 (Over -101 / Under -115), vs 45.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 4-6 (20.2-28.1) · Away 7-3 (28.2-17.2) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +23.0) Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 66.5 (EV -1.4%)
#89
NCAAF
SJSU @ UTEP
Sat 06:00 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 45.5
EV -6.3%
Model 84%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -26.1
Best spread SJSU +5.5 book SJSU -7 76% · 84¢ · EV -10.5%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add SJSU +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -6.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 53.2 combined vs the book's 45.5, which supports this pick. Public side 84% of bets are on this side (money 82%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 52.5, now 45.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 45.5 (Over -107 / Under -109). Form L10 Home 1-9 (20.8-40.0) · Away 3-7 (16.9-28.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 8d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 51.5 (EV +2.7%)
#90
NCAAF
BALL @ BGSU
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 47.5
EV -7.6%
Model 85%
Price 91¢
Pays 1.09x
Score -28.1
Best spread BGSU +5.5 book BGSU -6.5 76% · 82¢ · EV -9.0%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add BGSU +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -7.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 47.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 48.3 combined vs the book's 47.5, which supports this pick. Public side 76% of bets are on this side (money 81%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 44.5, now 47.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 46.5 (Over -110 / Under -106), vs 47.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-7 (18.0-26.3) · Away 2-8 (16.9-35.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 47.5 (EV -3.1%)
#91
NCAAF
WIS @ UCLA
Sat 04:30 PM
Over 28.5
Best total · book line Over 43.5
EV -7.4%
Model 82%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -32.1
Best spread UCLA +9.5 book UCLA -2.5 74% · 82¢ · EV -10.9%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 28.5 + Add UCLA +9.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -7.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 28.5 vs the book's 43.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 47.3 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick. Public side 85% of bets are on this side (money 80%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 49.5, now 43.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 43.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 5-5 (25.7-29.9) · Away 6-4 (21.9-17.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 14.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 44.5 (EV +0.3%)
#92
NCAAF
WMU @ CMU
Sat 10:30 AM
Over 26.5
Best total · book line Over 43.5
EV -8.7%
Model 84%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -35.3
Best spread WMU +5.5 book WMU -7 77% · 84¢ · EV -9.5%
Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 26.5 + Add WMU +5.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -8.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 26.5 vs the book's 43.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 43 combined vs the book's 43.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 47.5, now 43.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -106 / Under -110), vs 43.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 5-5 (19.2-23.8) · Away 8-2 (26.0-17.0) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -3.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 65.5 (EV +3.8%)
#93
NCAAF
NEV @ NDSU
Sat 04:00 PM
Over 26.5
Best total · book line Over 42.5
EV -9.1%
Model 85%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -36.0
Best spread NDSU -2.5 book NDSU -14.5 75% · 84¢ · EV -11.9%
Public side Pinnacle-based
+ Add Over 26.5 + Add NDSU -2.5
Why this bet & matchup notes Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -9.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 26.5 vs the book's 42.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 46.8 combined vs the book's 42.5, which supports this pick. Public side 87% of bets are on this side (money 88%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 45.5, now 42.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -103 / Under -114), vs 42.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 8-2 (32.8-12.4) · Away 4-6 (24.1-24.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 62.5 (EV +31.5%)
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