Line Tracker

Updated Fri Oct 16, 9:29 AM PT · History →

Games today60 with positive EV · 74 this week

Pick record21-581% at Kalshi lines

Units-0.981 unit = 1 stake

Target parlays

The combination of Kalshi legs most likely to reach each payout. Heavy-favorite moneylines are included when they help.

Morning parlays 3 Afternoon parlays 2

All sports: morning games · Tomorrow

Preview: locks at the 7:45 AM run on game day.

2x4-leg parlay EV-14.6%

Over 1.5 EPL · IPS @ MCI88¢ · 87%
Under 78.5 NCAAF · CIN @ WVU82¢ · 83%
MSST +27.5 NCAAF · MSST @ LSU78¢ · 78%
BUFF +5.5 NCAAF · MASS @ BUFF84¢ · 75%

Pays2.02x

Model hits42%

$10 returns$20.17

Why these bets

Over 1.5 · IPS @ MCI

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.5 (Over -102 / Under -113).
Form L10: Home 8-1-1 (2.4-0.8) · Away 3-3 (1.5-2.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest

Under 78.5 · CIN @ WVU

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.0%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 61.5, now 63.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63.5 (Over -106 / Under -110).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

MSST +27.5 · MSST @ LSU

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: MSST +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Public side: 76% of bets are on this side (money 63%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened +10.5, now +15.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: MSST +16, vs +15.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-18.0) · Away 5-5 (33.8-34.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

BUFF +5.5 · MASS @ BUFF

Price: Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -11.5%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: BUFF +5.5 vs the book's -7: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 78% of the money on 50% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened -3.5, now -7.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BUFF -7.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move

3x9-leg parlay EV-32.6%

Over 0.5 EPL · LFC @ BRE96¢ · 96%
Over 0.5 EPL · HUL @ FUL95¢ · 93%
Over 1.5 EPL · IPS @ MCI88¢ · 87%
Over 32.5 NCAAF · NW @ MSU89¢ · 86%
Over 42.5 NCAAF · CCH @ CLEM85¢ · 78%
SMU ML NCAAF · UVA @ SMU76¢ · 74%
Over 0.5 EPL · AVL @ NEW96¢ · 96%
CHA +33.5 NCAAF · CHA @ TEM82¢ · 80%
BUFF +5.5 NCAAF · MASS @ BUFF84¢ · 75%

Pays3.04x

Model hits22%

$10 returns$30.38

Why these bets

Over 0.5 · LFC @ BRE

Price: Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 92%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 3.5, now 2.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over -109 / Under -103), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 3-6-1 (1.8-1.2) · Away 2-5-3 (1.3-1.6)
Head to head: 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 5.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Over 0.5 · HUL @ FUL

Price: Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -2.9%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 86%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over +101 / Under -113), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 1-3-6 (0.9-1.5) · Away 2-3-1 (1.3-1.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6d rest

Over 1.5 · IPS @ MCI

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.5 (Over -102 / Under -113).
Form L10: Home 8-1-1 (2.4-0.8) · Away 3-3 (1.5-2.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest

Over 32.5 · NW @ MSU

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 32.5 vs the book's 49.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 49 combined vs the book's 49.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 48.5, now 49.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49.5 (Over -110 / Under -106).
Form L10: Home 3-7 (21.3-25.3) · Away 5-5 (28.8-22.6)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

Over 42.5 · CCH @ CLEM

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -8.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 42.5 vs the book's 57.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 44.7 combined vs the book's 57.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 58.5, now 57.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (25.9-22.8) · Away 6-4 (22.8-17.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

SMU ML · UVA @ SMU

Price: Model gives it 74%; Kalshi charges 76¢ (EV -4.0%, priced against you).
Public side: 97% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes SMU about 74% to win.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (32.9-20.5) · Away 6-4 (28.7-18.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Over 0.5 · AVL @ NEW

Price: Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over +103 / Under -116), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 4-3-3 (1.7-1.8) · Away 3-3-4 (1.5-1.8)
Head to head: 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.0)
Rest: Home 4.9d rest · Away 7.1d rest

CHA +33.5 · CHA @ TEM

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -3.4%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: CHA +33.5 vs the book's +21: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 60% of the money on 47% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +23.5, now +21 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: CHA +21.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (21.4-30.6) · Away 0-10 (12.8-39.1)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +35.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

BUFF +5.5 · MASS @ BUFF

Price: Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -11.5%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: BUFF +5.5 vs the book's -7: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 78% of the money on 50% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened -3.5, now -7.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BUFF -7.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move

4x7-leg parlay EV-20.8%

Under 71.5 NCAAF · FAU @ ARMY85¢ · 84%
Under 78.5 NCAAF · CIN @ WVU82¢ · 83%
FLA +23.5 NCAAF · FLA @ TEX79¢ · 78%
MSST +27.5 NCAAF · MSST @ LSU78¢ · 78%
SMU ML NCAAF · UVA @ SMU76¢ · 74%
Under 71.5 NCAAF · RUT @ UMD83¢ · 83%
BUFF +5.5 NCAAF · MASS @ BUFF84¢ · 75%

Pays4.01x

Model hits20%

$10 returns$40.06

Why these bets

Under 71.5 · FAU @ ARMY

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 55 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 59.5, now 54.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 54.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (25.5-19.3) · Away 5-5 (33.0-32.1)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Under 78.5 · CIN @ WVU

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.0%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 61.5, now 63.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63.5 (Over -106 / Under -110).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

FLA +23.5 · FLA @ TEX

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: FLA +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points.
Line move: Opened +9.5, now +11.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: FLA +11.5.
Form L10: Home 8-2 (32.5-23.8) · Away 5-5 (33.2-29.8)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -8.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

MSST +27.5 · MSST @ LSU

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: MSST +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Public side: 76% of bets are on this side (money 63%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened +10.5, now +15.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: MSST +16, vs +15.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-18.0) · Away 5-5 (33.8-34.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

SMU ML · UVA @ SMU

Price: Model gives it 74%; Kalshi charges 76¢ (EV -4.0%, priced against you).
Public side: 97% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes SMU about 74% to win.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (32.9-20.5) · Away 6-4 (28.7-18.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Under 71.5 · RUT @ UMD

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 56.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -111 / Under -105), vs 56.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.6-19.0) · Away 3-7 (27.0-32.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest

BUFF +5.5 · MASS @ BUFF

Price: Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -11.5%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: BUFF +5.5 vs the book's -7: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 78% of the money on 50% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened -3.5, now -7.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BUFF -7.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move

Soccer: morning games · Tomorrow

Preview: locks at the first run of the day (about 4 AM on soccer days) on game day.

Best4-leg · most likely legs EV-5.7%

Over 0.5 EPL · LFC @ BRE96¢ · 96%
Over 0.5 EPL · HUL @ FUL95¢ · 93%
Over 1.5 EPL · IPS @ MCI88¢ · 87%
Over 0.5 EPL · AVL @ NEW96¢ · 96%

Pays1.28x

Model hits74%

$10 returns$12.76

Why these bets

Over 0.5 · LFC @ BRE

Price: Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 92%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 3.5, now 2.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over -109 / Under -103), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 3-6-1 (1.8-1.2) · Away 2-5-3 (1.3-1.6)
Head to head: 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 5.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Over 0.5 · HUL @ FUL

Price: Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -2.9%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 86%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over +101 / Under -113), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 1-3-6 (0.9-1.5) · Away 2-3-1 (1.3-1.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6d rest

Over 1.5 · IPS @ MCI

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.5 (Over -102 / Under -113).
Form L10: Home 8-1-1 (2.4-0.8) · Away 3-3 (1.5-2.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest

Over 0.5 · AVL @ NEW

Price: Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over +103 / Under -116), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 4-3-3 (1.7-1.8) · Away 3-3-4 (1.5-1.8)
Head to head: 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.0)
Rest: Home 4.9d rest · Away 7.1d rest

Too few priced games to reach 2x, so this is the best parlay available.

NCAAF Saturday: morning games · Tomorrow

Preview: locks at the 7:45 AM run on game day.

2x3-leg parlay EV-15.6%

Under 78.5 NCAAF · CIN @ WVU82¢ · 83%
PITT ML NCAAF · PITT @ BC69¢ · 67%
BUFF +5.5 NCAAF · MASS @ BUFF84¢ · 75%

Pays2.01x

Model hits42%

$10 returns$20.11

Why these bets

Under 78.5 · CIN @ WVU

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.0%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 61.5, now 63.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63.5 (Over -106 / Under -110).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

PITT ML · PITT @ BC

Price: Model gives it 67%; Kalshi charges 69¢ (EV -4.7%, priced against you).
Public side: 95% of bets are on this side (money 87%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes PITT about 67% to win.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (21.0-27.3) · Away 7-3 (30.8-21.1)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -41.0)
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

BUFF +5.5 · MASS @ BUFF

Price: Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -11.5%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: BUFF +5.5 vs the book's -7: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 78% of the money on 50% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened -3.5, now -7.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BUFF -7.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move

3x5-leg parlay EV-18.0%

Under 78.5 NCAAF · CIN @ WVU82¢ · 83%
MSST +27.5 NCAAF · MSST @ LSU78¢ · 78%
PITT ML NCAAF · PITT @ BC69¢ · 67%
Under 71.5 NCAAF · RUT @ UMD83¢ · 83%
BUFF +5.5 NCAAF · MASS @ BUFF84¢ · 75%

Pays3.02x

Model hits27%

$10 returns$30.24

Why these bets

Under 78.5 · CIN @ WVU

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.0%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 61.5, now 63.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63.5 (Over -106 / Under -110).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

MSST +27.5 · MSST @ LSU

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: MSST +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Public side: 76% of bets are on this side (money 63%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened +10.5, now +15.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: MSST +16, vs +15.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-18.0) · Away 5-5 (33.8-34.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

PITT ML · PITT @ BC

Price: Model gives it 67%; Kalshi charges 69¢ (EV -4.7%, priced against you).
Public side: 95% of bets are on this side (money 87%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes PITT about 67% to win.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (21.0-27.3) · Away 7-3 (30.8-21.1)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -41.0)
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Under 71.5 · RUT @ UMD

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 56.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -111 / Under -105), vs 56.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.6-19.0) · Away 3-7 (27.0-32.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest

BUFF +5.5 · MASS @ BUFF

Price: Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -11.5%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: BUFF +5.5 vs the book's -7: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 78% of the money on 50% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened -3.5, now -7.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BUFF -7.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move

4x6-leg parlay EV-20.7%

Under 71.5 NCAAF · FAU @ ARMY85¢ · 84%
Under 78.5 NCAAF · CIN @ WVU82¢ · 83%
MSST +27.5 NCAAF · MSST @ LSU78¢ · 78%
OSU ML NCAAF · OSU @ IU60¢ · 58%
Under 71.5 NCAAF · RUT @ UMD83¢ · 83%
BUFF +5.5 NCAAF · MASS @ BUFF84¢ · 75%

Pays4.02x

Model hits20%

$10 returns$40.23

Why these bets

Under 71.5 · FAU @ ARMY

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 55 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 59.5, now 54.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 54.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (25.5-19.3) · Away 5-5 (33.0-32.1)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Under 78.5 · CIN @ WVU

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.0%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 61.5, now 63.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63.5 (Over -106 / Under -110).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

MSST +27.5 · MSST @ LSU

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: MSST +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Public side: 76% of bets are on this side (money 63%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened +10.5, now +15.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: MSST +16, vs +15.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-18.0) · Away 5-5 (33.8-34.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

OSU ML · OSU @ IU

Price: Model gives it 58%; Kalshi charges 60¢ (EV -6.0%, priced against you).
Public side: 89% of bets are on this side (money 97%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes OSU about 58% to win.
Form L10: Home 10-0 (36.8-11.5) · Away 8-2 (38.3-12.0)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +3.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest

Under 71.5 · RUT @ UMD

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 56.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -111 / Under -105), vs 56.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.6-19.0) · Away 3-7 (27.0-32.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest

BUFF +5.5 · MASS @ BUFF

Price: Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -11.5%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: BUFF +5.5 vs the book's -7: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 78% of the money on 50% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened -3.5, now -7.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BUFF -7.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move

All sports: afternoon games · Today

Preview: locks at the 11:15 AM run on game day.

2x4-leg parlay EV-8.1%

Over 2.5 MLB · TB @ CLE93¢ · 92%
PUR ML NCAAF · WASH @ PUR61¢ · 60%
Over 3.5 NHL · PIT @ COL91¢ · 91%
Over 3.5 NHL · BOS @ ANA89¢ · 87%

Pays2.08x

Model hits44%

$10 returns$20.79

1-0 so far · +1.00u

Why these bets

Over 2.5 · TB @ CLE

Price: Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -117 / Under +104).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0)
Head to head: 8-8 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest

PUR ML · WASH @ PUR

Price: Model gives it 60%; Kalshi charges 61¢ (EV -3.9%, priced against you).
Favorite: The betting market makes PUR about 60% to win.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (23.5-34.8) · Away 5-5 (27.8-19.9)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -36.0)
Rest: Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

Over 3.5 · PIT @ COL

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -121 / Under +107).
Goalies: PIT goalie unconfirmed; COL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest
Starters: PIT: Arturs Silovs, expected, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, expected, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV%

Over 3.5 · BOS @ ANA

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.9 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -115 / Under +102), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies: BOS goalie unconfirmed; ANA goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.6-2.9) · Away 7-3 (3.4-2.0)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +1.5)
Rest: Home 3d rest · Away 2.9d rest
Starters: BOS: Jeremy Swayman, expected, #1 goalie, 0.930 SV% | ANA: Lukas Dostal, expected, #1 goalie, 0.892 SV%
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, steam

3x5-leg parlay EV-12.1%

MEM ML NCAAF · MEM @ TULN71¢ · 69%
Over 33.5 NCAAF · APP @ CC86¢ · 86%
PUR ML NCAAF · WASH @ PUR61¢ · 60%
Over 3.5 NHL · PIT @ COL91¢ · 91%
Over 3.5 NHL · BOS @ ANA89¢ · 87%

Pays3.09x

Model hits28%

$10 returns$30.88

0-1 so far · -1.00u

Why these bets

MEM ML · MEM @ TULN

Price: Model gives it 69%; Kalshi charges 71¢ (EV -4.3%, priced against you).
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 88%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes MEM about 69% to win.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest

Over 33.5 · APP @ CC

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 48.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -110 / Under -106).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

PUR ML · WASH @ PUR

Price: Model gives it 60%; Kalshi charges 61¢ (EV -3.9%, priced against you).
Favorite: The betting market makes PUR about 60% to win.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (23.5-34.8) · Away 5-5 (27.8-19.9)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -36.0)
Rest: Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

Over 3.5 · PIT @ COL

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -121 / Under +107).
Goalies: PIT goalie unconfirmed; COL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest
Starters: PIT: Arturs Silovs, expected, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, expected, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV%

Over 3.5 · BOS @ ANA

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.9 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -115 / Under +102), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies: BOS goalie unconfirmed; ANA goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.6-2.9) · Away 7-3 (3.4-2.0)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +1.5)
Rest: Home 3d rest · Away 2.9d rest
Starters: BOS: Jeremy Swayman, expected, #1 goalie, 0.930 SV% | ANA: Lukas Dostal, expected, #1 goalie, 0.892 SV%
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, steam

Not enough priced legs to reach 4x.

NCAAF Saturday: afternoon games · Tomorrow

Preview: locks at the 11:15 AM run on game day.

2x3-leg parlay EV-5.1%

Under 74.5 NCAAF · MIZ @ MISS83¢ · 84%
VAN ML NCAAF · ARK @ VAN67¢ · 67%
Under 72.5 NCAAF · ELO @ STAN86¢ · 85%

Pays2.00x

Model hits47%

$10 returns$20.00

Why these bets

Under 74.5 · MIZ @ MISS

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.4%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 74.5 vs the book's 58.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 56.2 combined vs the book's 58.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 57.5, now 58.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 58.5 (Over -113 / Under -103).
Form L10: Home 9-1 (37.9-22.3) · Away 7-3 (31.8-20.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

VAN ML · ARK @ VAN

Price: Model gives it 67%; Kalshi charges 67¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you).
Public side: 90% of bets are on this side (money 76%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes VAN about 67% to win.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-29.0) · Away 2-8 (22.7-31.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest

Under 72.5 · ELO @ STAN

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 72.5 vs the book's 56.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 51.3 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 86% of bets are on this side (money 77%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 52.5, now 56.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (18.0-36.3) · Away 6-4 (28.6-19.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.2d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

3x5-leg parlay EV-8.6%

Under 74.5 NCAAF · MIZ @ MISS83¢ · 84%
NIU +20.5 NCAAF · NIU @ WYO80¢ · 80%
VAN ML NCAAF · ARK @ VAN67¢ · 67%
Under 72.5 NCAAF · ELO @ STAN86¢ · 85%
SAC +27.5 NCAAF · OHIO @ SAC81¢ · 81%

Pays3.00x

Model hits30%

$10 returns$30.04

Why these bets

Under 74.5 · MIZ @ MISS

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.4%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 74.5 vs the book's 58.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 56.2 combined vs the book's 58.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 57.5, now 58.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 58.5 (Over -113 / Under -103).
Form L10: Home 9-1 (37.9-22.3) · Away 7-3 (31.8-20.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

NIU +20.5 · NIU @ WYO

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -1.8%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 80%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: NIU +20.5 vs the book's +8: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 57% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +7.5, now +8.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: NIU +7.5, vs +8 at other books.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (11.1-21.1) · Away 2-8 (18.1-29.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest

VAN ML · ARK @ VAN

Price: Model gives it 67%; Kalshi charges 67¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you).
Public side: 90% of bets are on this side (money 76%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes VAN about 67% to win.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-29.0) · Away 2-8 (22.7-31.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest

Under 72.5 · ELO @ STAN

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 72.5 vs the book's 56.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 51.3 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 86% of bets are on this side (money 77%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 52.5, now 56.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (18.0-36.3) · Away 6-4 (28.6-19.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.2d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

SAC +27.5 · OHIO @ SAC

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.9%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: SAC +27.5 vs the book's +15: 12.5 extra points.
Line move: Opened +13.5, now +15.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: SAC +14.5, vs +15 at other books.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (23.5-26.9) · Away 7-3 (27.5-22.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.4d rest · Away 7.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

4x6-leg parlay EV-10.9%

Under 74.5 NCAAF · MIZ @ MISS83¢ · 84%
GT +21.5 NCAAF · GT @ VT78¢ · 78%
USM +20.5 NCAAF · ARST @ USM82¢ · 81%
VAN ML NCAAF · ARK @ VAN67¢ · 67%
ULM +27.5 NCAAF · LT @ ULM79¢ · 78%
SAC +27.5 NCAAF · OHIO @ SAC81¢ · 81%

Pays4.01x

Model hits22%

$10 returns$40.14

Why these bets

Under 74.5 · MIZ @ MISS

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.4%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 74.5 vs the book's 58.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 56.2 combined vs the book's 58.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 57.5, now 58.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 58.5 (Over -113 / Under -103).
Form L10: Home 9-1 (37.9-22.3) · Away 7-3 (31.8-20.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

GT +21.5 · GT @ VT

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: GT +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points.
Public side: 75% of bets are on this side (money 76%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: GT +9.5.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (28.0-24.7) · Away 4-6 (28.6-28.5)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -15.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

USM +20.5 · ARST @ USM

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -2.9%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: USM +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points.
Line move: Opened +7, now +6.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: USM +6.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (27.5-32.6) · Away 4-6 (27.3-27.3)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 11d rest · Away 9d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move

VAN ML · ARK @ VAN

Price: Model gives it 67%; Kalshi charges 67¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you).
Public side: 90% of bets are on this side (money 76%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes VAN about 67% to win.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-29.0) · Away 2-8 (22.7-31.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest

ULM +27.5 · LT @ ULM

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: ULM +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 71% of the money on 53% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +14.5, now +15.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: ULM +14.5, vs +15.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 0-10 (20.2-39.0) · Away 6-4 (33.4-27.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

SAC +27.5 · OHIO @ SAC

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.9%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: SAC +27.5 vs the book's +15: 12.5 extra points.
Line move: Opened +13.5, now +15.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: SAC +14.5, vs +15 at other books.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (23.5-26.9) · Away 7-3 (27.5-22.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.4d rest · Away 7.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

All sports: full day · Today

🔒 Locked at 09:29 AM PT. These stay the same all day; legs that have started are marked.

2x5-leg parlay EV-9.8%

MEM ML NCAAF · MEM @ TULN71¢ · 69%
Over 2.5 MLB · TB @ CLE93¢ · 92%
Over 33.5 NCAAF · APP @ CC86¢ · 86%
Over 3.5 NHL · PIT @ COL91¢ · 91%
Over 3.5 NHL · BOS @ ANA89¢ · 87%

Pays2.07x

Model hits44%

$10 returns$20.71

1-0 so far · +1.00u

Why these bets

MEM ML · MEM @ TULN

Price: Model gives it 69%; Kalshi charges 71¢ (EV -4.3%, priced against you).
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 88%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes MEM about 69% to win.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest

Over 2.5 · TB @ CLE

Price: Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -117 / Under +104).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0)
Head to head: 8-8 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest

Over 33.5 · APP @ CC

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 48.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -110 / Under -106).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Over 3.5 · PIT @ COL

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -121 / Under +107).
Goalies: PIT goalie unconfirmed; COL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest
Starters: PIT: Arturs Silovs, expected, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, expected, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV%

Over 3.5 · BOS @ ANA

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.9 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -115 / Under +102), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies: BOS goalie unconfirmed; ANA goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.6-2.9) · Away 7-3 (3.4-2.0)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +1.5)
Rest: Home 3d rest · Away 2.9d rest
Starters: BOS: Jeremy Swayman, expected, #1 goalie, 0.930 SV% | ANA: Lukas Dostal, expected, #1 goalie, 0.892 SV%
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, steam

3x5-leg parlay EV-13.1%

MEM ML NCAAF · MEM @ TULN71¢ · 69%
Over 2.5 MLB · TB @ CLE93¢ · 92%
Over 33.5 NCAAF · APP @ CC86¢ · 86%
PUR ML NCAAF · WASH @ PUR61¢ · 60%
Over 3.5 NHL · BOS @ ANA89¢ · 87%

Pays3.03x

Model hits29%

$10 returns$30.26

0-1 so far · -1.00u

Why these bets

MEM ML · MEM @ TULN

Price: Model gives it 69%; Kalshi charges 71¢ (EV -4.3%, priced against you).
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 88%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite: The betting market makes MEM about 69% to win.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest

Over 2.5 · TB @ CLE

Price: Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -117 / Under +104).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0)
Head to head: 8-8 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest

Over 33.5 · APP @ CC

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 48.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -110 / Under -106).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

PUR ML · WASH @ PUR

Price: Model gives it 60%; Kalshi charges 61¢ (EV -3.9%, priced against you).
Favorite: The betting market makes PUR about 60% to win.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (23.5-34.8) · Away 5-5 (27.8-19.9)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -36.0)
Rest: Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

Over 3.5 · BOS @ ANA

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.9 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -115 / Under +102), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies: BOS goalie unconfirmed; ANA goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.6-2.9) · Away 7-3 (3.4-2.0)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +1.5)
Rest: Home 3d rest · Away 2.9d rest
Starters: BOS: Jeremy Swayman, expected, #1 goalie, 0.930 SV% | ANA: Lukas Dostal, expected, #1 goalie, 0.892 SV%
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, steam

Not enough priced legs to reach 4x.

Games, best to worst

Positive EV only

#1 NFL DAL @ GB Sun 05:20 PM

Over 37.5

Best total · book line Over 53

EV–

Model87%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score40.4

Best spreadDAL +13.5book DAL +1.581% · 86¢ · EV -6.3%

Bets

63%

Money

83%

🔥 Sharp play: 83% of money on 63% of bets

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 37.5 vs the book's 53: 15.5 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 50.5 combined vs the book's 53, which works against this pick.
Sharp money: 83% of the money on 63% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 51.5, now 53.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (20.1-24.6) · Away 3-7 (25.8-30.5)
Head to head: 0-1-0 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest: Home 7.3d rest · Away 10d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 31.5 (EV -1.4%)

#1 NCAAF MASS @ BUFF Sat 10:00 AM

BUFF +5.5

Best spread · book line BUFF -7

EV–

Model75%

Price84¢

Pays1.18x

Score7.9

Best totalOver 27.5book Over 42.584% · 89¢ · EV -6.4%

Bets

50%

Money

78%

🔥 Sharp play: 78% of money on 50% of betsPinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -11.5%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: BUFF +5.5 vs the book's -7: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 78% of the money on 50% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened -3.5, now -7.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BUFF -7.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: +17.5 (EV -5.3%)

#2 NFL LAC @ KC Sun 01:25 PM

LAC +20.5

Best spread · book line LAC +7.5

EV–

Model84%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score5.1

Best totalOver 25.5book Over 41.587% · 93¢ · EV -6.5%

Bets

40%

Money

46%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV +0.5%, priced in your favor).
Cushion: LAC +20.5 vs the book's +7.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +2.5, now +7.5.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (20.3-20.4) · Away 3-7 (17.5-21.7)
Head to head: 0-2 (avg margin -4.5)
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Tre' Harris WR (Doubtful); Brenen Thompson WR (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -10.5 (EV +86.8%)

#2 NCAAF NIU @ WYO Sat 12:30 PM

NIU +20.5

Best spread · book line NIU +8

EV–

Model80%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score0.7

Best totalOver 25.5book Over 41.584% · 93¢ · EV -10.4%

Bets

41%

Money

57%

Sharp money +16Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -1.8%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 80%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: NIU +20.5 vs the book's +8: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 57% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +7.5, now +8.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: NIU +7.5, vs +8 at other books.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (11.1-21.1) · Away 2-8 (18.1-29.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Best-value line: -14.5 (EV +84.8%)

#3 NCAAF KU @ KSU Sat 09:00 AM

KSU +7.5

Best spread · book line KSU -4.5

EV–

Model76%

Price–

Pays–

Score0.5

Best totalUnder 70.5book Under 55.582% · no price · EV –

Bets

54%

Money

55%

Pinnacle-basedNo Kalshi market

Why this bet & matchup notes

Cushion: KSU +7.5 vs the book's -4.5: 12 extra points.
Line move: Opened -7.5, now -4.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: KSU -4.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (32.5-22.7) · Away 3-7 (27.8-26.5)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +25.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam

#4 EPL CHE @ EVE Sat 04:30 AM

Over 0.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV–

Model94%

Price–

Pays–

Score0.5

Bets

95%

Money

96%

Public sidePinnacle-basedNo Kalshi market

Why this bet & matchup notes

Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over -118 / Under +105), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 2-6-2 (1.4-1.4) · Away 4-2-4 (2.0-2.0)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin +0.5)
Rest: Home 5.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest

#5 NCAAF LT @ ULM Sat 05:00 PM

ULM +27.5

Best spread · book line ULM +15.5

EV–

Model78%

Price79¢

Pays1.25x

Score0.2

Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 55.584% · 87¢ · EV -4.6%

Bets

53%

Money

71%

Sharp money +18Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: ULM +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 71% of the money on 53% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +14.5, now +15.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: ULM +14.5, vs +15.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 0-10 (20.2-39.0) · Away 6-4 (33.4-27.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -7.5 (EV +42.6%)

#6 NCAAF RUT @ UMD Sat 09:30 AM

Under 71.5

Best total · book line Under 56.5

EV–

Model83%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score0.1

Best spreadUMD +6.5book UMD -5.575% · 81¢ · EV -8.1%

Bets

61%

Money

67%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 56.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -111 / Under -105), vs 56.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.6-19.0) · Away 3-7 (27.0-32.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest
Best-value line: 77.5 (EV +2.6%)

#3 NFL BUF @ LV Sun 01:25 PM

LV +16.5

Best spread · book line LV +4.5

EV–

Model81%

Price82¢

Pays1.20x

Score-1.7

Best totalOver 38.5book Over 53.585% · 88¢ · EV -3.7%

Bets

41%

Money

52%

Reverse line moveSharp money +11

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: LV +16.5 vs the book's +4.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 52% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +6.5, now +4.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 4-6 (19.4-25.3) · Away 8-2 (30.8-24.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 5.8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -7.5 (EV +40.8%)

#7 EPL AVL @ NEW Sat 09:30 AM

Over 0.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV–

Model96%

Price96¢

Pays1.04x

Score-1.9

Bets

93%

Money

95%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over +103 / Under -116), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 4-3-3 (1.7-1.8) · Away 3-3-4 (1.5-1.8)
Head to head: 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.0)
Rest: Home 4.9d rest · Away 7.1d rest

#8 NCAAF CHA @ TEM Sat 10:00 AM

CHA +33.5

Best spread · book line CHA +21

EV–

Model80%

Price82¢

Pays1.20x

Score-2.0

Best totalOver 29.5book Over 46.587% · 93¢ · EV -7.1%

Bets

47%

Money

60%

Reverse line moveSharp money +13Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -3.4%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: CHA +33.5 vs the book's +21: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 60% of the money on 47% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +23.5, now +21 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: CHA +21.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (21.4-30.6) · Away 0-10 (12.8-39.1)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +35.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: +2.5 (EV +43.0%)

#1 MLB TB @ CLE Fri 05:00 PM

Over 2.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV–

Model92%

Price93¢

Pays1.07x

Score-2.5

Best spreadTB +1.5book TB -1.567% · 71¢ · EV -7.5%

Bets

71%

Money

77%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -117 / Under +104).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0)
Head to head: 8-8 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest
Best-value line: 5.5 (EV +2.4%)

#9 EPL LFC @ BRE Sat 07:00 AM

Over 0.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV–

Model96%

Price96¢

Pays1.04x

Score-2.6

Bets

92%

Money

92%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 92%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 3.5, now 2.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over -109 / Under -103), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 3-6-1 (1.8-1.2) · Away 2-5-3 (1.3-1.6)
Head to head: 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 5.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

#2 NHL PIT @ COL Fri 06:00 PM

Over 3.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV–

Model91%

Price91¢

Pays1.09x

Score-2.8

Bets

92%

Money

89%

Public sidePinnacle-basedPIT goalie unconfirmedCOL goalie unconfirmed

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -121 / Under +107).
Goalies: PIT goalie unconfirmed; COL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest
Starters: PIT: Arturs Silovs, expected, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, expected, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV%
Best-value line: 9.5 (EV +24.8%)

#4 NFL HOU @ JAC Sun 06:30 AM

Over 27.5

Best total · book line Over 42.5

EV–

Model87%

Price90¢

Pays1.10x

Score-2.9

Best spreadJAC +9.5book JAC -2.582% · 84¢ · EV -3.6%

Bets

45%

Money

60%

Reverse line moveSharp money +15

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.9%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 27.5 vs the book's 42.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 42.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp money: 60% of the money on 45% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 40.5, now 42.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10: Home 9-1 (30.5-15.3) · Away 6-4 (25.1-20.9)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away David Montgomery RB (Out); Tank Dell WR (Out)
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 54.5 (EV +1.2%)

#5 EPL MUN @ LEE Sun 06:00 AM

Over 0.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV–

Model95%

Price95¢

Pays1.05x

Score-3.2

Bets

94%

Money

94%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 2.7 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 94% of bets are on this side (money 94%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Form L10: Home 4-4-2 (1.3-1.0) · Away 4-4-2 (1.8-1.3)
Head to head: 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5)
Rest: Home 8.1d rest · Away 7.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

#10 NCAAF CIN @ WVU Sat 09:00 AM

Under 78.5

Best total · book line Under 63.5

EV–

Model83%

Price82¢

Pays1.20x

Score-3.4

Best spreadWVU +10.5book WVU -1.575% · 82¢ · EV -9.2%

Bets

69%

Money

62%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.0%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 61.5, now 63.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63.5 (Over -106 / Under -110).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 84.5 (EV +0.3%)

#3 NCAAF APP @ CC Fri 05:00 PM

Over 33.5

Best total · book line Over 48.5

EV–

Model86%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score-3.8

Best spreadCC +13.5book CC +1.577% · 81¢ · EV -5.9%

Bets

73%

Money

77%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 48.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -110 / Under -106).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 69.5 (EV +10.6%)

#6 EPL SUN @ BOU Sun 06:00 AM

Over 0.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV–

Model93%

Price94¢

Pays1.06x

Score-4.4

Bets

93%

Money

92%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 94¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 2.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 92%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Form L10: Home 2-5-3 (1.3-1.5) · Away 3-3-4 (1.2-1.5)
Head to head: 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 8d rest · Away 8d rest

#11 NCAAF GT @ VT Sat 12:30 PM

GT +21.5

Best spread · book line GT +9.5

EV–

Model78%

Price78¢

Pays1.26x

Score-4.6

Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 56.584% · 86¢ · EV -3.0%

Bets

75%

Money

76%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: GT +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points.
Public side: 75% of bets are on this side (money 76%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: GT +9.5.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (28.0-24.7) · Away 4-6 (28.6-28.5)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -15.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -14.5 (EV +51.3%)

#7 EPL CRY @ BRI Sun 06:00 AM

Over 0.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV–

Model96%

Price97¢

Pays1.03x

Score-5.0

Bets

92%

Money

93%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 97¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Form L10: Home 5-1-4 (2.2-1.2) · Away 2-3-5 (1.4-2.1)
Head to head: 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 8d rest · Away 7d rest

#12 NCAAF FLA @ TEX Sat 09:00 AM

FLA +23.5

Best spread · book line FLA +11.5

EV–

Model78%

Price79¢

Pays1.25x

Score-5.1

Best totalOver 36.5book Over 51.584% · 87¢ · EV -4.0%

Bets

63%

Money

70%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: FLA +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points.
Line move: Opened +9.5, now +11.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: FLA +11.5.
Form L10: Home 8-2 (32.5-23.8) · Away 5-5 (33.2-29.8)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -8.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -10.5 (EV +59.2%)

#13 NCAAF MIZ @ MISS Sat 12:30 PM

Under 74.5

Best total · book line Under 58.5

EV–

Model84%

Price83¢

Pays1.19x

Score-5.3

Best spreadMISS +6.5book MISS -5.574% · 80¢ · EV -8.5%

Bets

53%

Money

46%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.5%, about fair).
Cushion: Under 74.5 vs the book's 58.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 56.2 combined vs the book's 58.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 57.5, now 58.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 58.5 (Over -113 / Under -103).
Form L10: Home 9-1 (37.9-22.3) · Away 7-3 (31.8-20.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move

#8 NFL ARI @ LA Sun 01:05 PM

Over 34.5

Best total · book line Over 51.5

EV–

Model90%

Price92¢

Pays1.08x

Score-5.4

Best spreadLA +1.5book LA -12.584% · 88¢ · EV -5.3%

Bets

57%

Money

65%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 90%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 34.5 vs the book's 51.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 55.2 combined vs the book's 51.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 51.5.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (30.3-25.6) · Away 1-9 (19.8-34.7)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +22.5)
Rest: Home 5.8d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 53.5 (EV -0.3%)

#14 NCAAF OHIO @ SAC Sat 07:00 PM

SAC +27.5

Best spread · book line SAC +15

EV–

Model81%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score-5.5

Best totalOver 32.5book Over 47.583% · 89¢ · EV -7.2%

Bets

42%

Money

46%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.9%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: SAC +27.5 vs the book's +15: 12.5 extra points.
Line move: Opened +13.5, now +15.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: SAC +14.5, vs +15 at other books.
Form L10: Home 4-6 (23.5-26.9) · Away 7-3 (27.5-22.5)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.4d rest · Away 7.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -7.5 (EV +62.9%)

#15 EPL IPS @ MCI Sat 07:00 AM

Over 1.5

Best total · book line Over 3.5

EV–

Model87%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-5.6

Bets

95%

Money

96%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.5 (Over -102 / Under -113).
Form L10: Home 8-1-1 (2.4-0.8) · Away 3-3 (1.5-2.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line: 0.5 (EV -0.9%)

#16 NCAAF NAVY @ UTSA Sat 05:00 PM

Under 72.5

Best total · book line Under 55.5

EV–

Model85%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-5.7

Best spreadUTSA +5.5book UTSA -6.575% · 84¢ · EV -11.5%

Bets

46%

Money

47%

Reverse line movePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -2.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 72.5 vs the book's 55.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 55.2 combined vs the book's 55.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 56.5, now 55.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -102 / Under -115), vs 55.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (32.1-26.8) · Away 5-5 (24.8-26.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 9d rest · Away 7.2d rest
Best-value line: 36.5 (EV +8.4%)

#9 EPL ARS @ NFO Sun 08:30 AM

Over 0.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV–

Model93%

Price94¢

Pays1.06x

Score-7.4

Bets

93%

Money

93%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 94¢ (EV -1.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 93% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Form L10: Home 2-4-4 (1.2-1.4) · Away 9-1 (1.7-0.6)
Head to head: 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.5)
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 8.2d rest

#1 NFL WAS @ SF Mon 05:15 PM

Over 35.5

Best total · book line Over 51.5

EV–

Model88%

Price89¢

Pays1.11x

Score-8.1

Best spreadSF +4.5book SF -7.581% · 89¢ · EV -9.3%

Bets

64%

Money

67%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 35.5 vs the book's 51.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 50 combined vs the book's 51.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 50.5, now 51.5.
Form L10: Home 9-1 (31.0-20.3) · Away 3-1-6 (20.9-27.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 8.2d rest · Away 8.3d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Deebo Samuel WR (Out)
Best-value line: 29.5 (EV -1.8%)

#10 NFL CAR @ PHI Sun 10:00 AM

Over 21.5

Best total · book line Over 39

EV–

Model91%

Price93¢

Pays1.07x

Score-8.9

Best spreadCAR +9.5book CAR -3.581% · 87¢ · EV -7.2%

Bets

70%

Money

73%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 21.5 vs the book's 39: 17.5 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 42.7 combined vs the book's 39, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 43.5, now 39.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (20.1-18.8) · Away 4-6 (22.5-24.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 13.7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Jalen Hurts QB (Out); Will Shipley RB (Out)
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 51.5 (EV +11.6%)

#17 NCAAF TOL @ EMU Sat 12:30 PM

Under 68.5

Best total · book line Under 52.5

EV–

Model84%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-9.0

Best spreadTOL +5.5book TOL -6.577% · 83¢ · EV -8.7%

Bets

52%

Money

53%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 68.5 vs the book's 52.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 48.9 combined vs the book's 52.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 52.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 53 (Over -108 / Under -108), vs 52.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (23.0-23.4) · Away 8-2 (34.5-16.9)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 32.5 (EV +8.4%)

#18 NCAAF GAST @ JMU Sat 09:00 AM

GAST +23.5

Best spread · book line GAST +10.5

EV–

Model77%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score-9.0

Best totalUnder 73.5book Under 57.584% · 86¢ · EV -3.5%

Bets

43%

Money

51%

Reverse line movePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -4.5%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 77% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: GAST +23.5 vs the book's +10.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +12.5, now +10.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: GAST +10.5.
Form L10: Home 10-0 (42.3-14.4) · Away 4-6 (30.2-26.1)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 13.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -11.5 (EV +34.9%)

#19 NCAAF FAU @ ARMY Sat 09:00 AM

Under 71.5

Best total · book line Under 54.5

EV–

Model84%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-9.4

Best spreadARMY +9.5book ARMY -2.576% · 79¢ · EV -5.1%

Bets

56%

Money

53%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 55 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 59.5, now 54.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 54.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (25.5-19.3) · Away 5-5 (33.0-32.1)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 13.8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 35.5 (EV +0.0%)

#20 NCAAF AKR @ M-OH Sat 12:30 PM

AKR +21.5

Best spread · book line AKR +9.5

EV–

Model78%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score-9.6

Best totalOver 29.5book Over 46.586% · 92¢ · EV -6.6%

Bets

39%

Money

49%

Sharp money +10Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -3.6%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: AKR +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 49% of the money on 39% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: AKR +9.5.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (25.2-25.6) · Away 4-6 (24.0-27.7)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +13.0)
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line: -13.5 (EV +68.8%)

#21 NCAAF WSU @ ORST Sat 03:00 PM

Under 67.5

Best total · book line Under 52.5

EV–

Model84%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-9.9

Best spreadORST -6.5book ORST -18.571% · 79¢ · EV -10.8%

Bets

48%

Money

48%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 67.5 vs the book's 52.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 45.4 combined vs the book's 52.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 48.5, now 52.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 52.5 (Over -108 / Under -108).
Form L10: Home 5-5 (30.0-22.3) · Away 3-7 (19.8-18.7)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -10.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7.9d rest
Best-value line: 28.5 (EV +37.8%)

#22 NCAAF CCH @ CLEM Sat 09:00 AM

Under 72.5

Best total · book line Under 57.5

EV–

Model86%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-10.2

Best spreadCLEM -24.5book CLEM -42.575% · 90¢ · EV -17.2%

Bets

51%

Money

51%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 72.5 vs the book's 57.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 44.7 combined vs the book's 57.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 58.5, now 57.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (25.9-22.8) · Away 6-4 (22.8-17.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 48.5 (EV +8.1%)

#23 NCAAF MSST @ LSU Sat 09:00 AM

Over 42.5

Best total · book line Over 57.5

EV–

Model82%

Price84¢

Pays1.18x

Score-10.3

Best spreadMSST +27.5book MSST +15.578% · 78¢ · EV -2.1%

Bets

50%

Money

56%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -3.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 42.5 vs the book's 57.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 58.8 combined vs the book's 57.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 58.5, now 57.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 57 (Over -109 / Under -107), vs 57.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-18.0) · Away 5-5 (33.8-34.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 59.5 (EV -3.2%)

#4 NCAAF MEM @ TULN Fri 04:30 PM

Over 37.5

Best total · book line Over 54.5

EV–

Model85%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-10.6

Best spreadMEM +5.5book MEM -776% · 82¢ · EV -8.9%

Bets

60%

Money

69%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -3.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 37.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 54.5 (Over -112 / Under -104).
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest
Best-value line: 34.5 (EV -3.5%)

#5 NHL BOS @ ANA Fri 07:00 PM

Over 3.5

Best total · book line Over 6.5

EV–

Model87%

Price89¢

Pays1.11x

Score-10.6

Bets

92%

Money

93%

Public sidePinnacle-basedBOS goalie unconfirmedANA goalie unconfirmed

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.9 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -115 / Under +102), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies: BOS goalie unconfirmed; ANA goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.6-2.9) · Away 7-3 (3.4-2.0)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +1.5)
Rest: Home 3d rest · Away 2.9d rest
Starters: BOS: Jeremy Swayman, expected, #1 goalie, 0.930 SV% | ANA: Lukas Dostal, expected, #1 goalie, 0.892 SV%
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, steam
Best-value line: 7.5 (EV +3.9%)

#24 NCAAF OKST @ HOU Sat 04:30 PM

Over 45.5

Best total · book line Over 62.5

EV–

Model83%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-10.8

Best spreadOKST +16.5book OKST +4.576% · 80¢ · EV -6.8%

Bets

40%

Money

59%

Reverse line moveSharp money +19Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -6.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 45.5 vs the book's 62.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 53 combined vs the book's 62.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money: 59% of the money on 40% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 57.5, now 62.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63 (Over -101 / Under -115), vs 62.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (35.0-22.8) · Away 4-6 (24.5-23.8)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +22.0)
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 42.5 (EV -5.5%)

#11 NFL NO @ NYG Sun 10:00 AM

Over 30.5

Best total · book line Over 45.5

EV–

Model86%

Price90¢

Pays1.10x

Score-11.9

Best spreadNYG +13.5book NYG +1.582% · 85¢ · EV -5.0%

Bets

61%

Money

74%

Sharp money +13

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 30.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 45.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp money: 74% of the money on 61% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened 44.5, now 45.5.
Form L10: Home 5-1-4 (22.6-21.1) · Away 5-5 (24.2-23.9)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -12.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 24.5 (EV -3.4%)

#12 NFL NYJ @ NE Sun 10:00 AM

Over 26.5

Best total · book line Over 43.5

EV–

Model90%

Price93¢

Pays1.07x

Score-12.1

Best spreadNE +4.5book NE -7.582% · 87¢ · EV -6.4%

Bets

62%

Money

71%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 90%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -4.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 26.5 vs the book's 43.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 45 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 42.5, now 43.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (28.2-18.8) · Away 2-8 (14.7-28.4)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +22.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Breece Hall RB (Out); Adonai Mitchell WR (Out); TreVeyon Henderson RB (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 44.5 (EV -1.8%)

#25 NCAAF ARST @ USM Sat 04:00 PM

USM +20.5

Best spread · book line USM +6.5

EV–

Model81%

Price82¢

Pays1.20x

Score-12.1

Best totalUnder 79.5book Under 62.587% · 87¢ · EV -1.3%

Bets

74%

Money

73%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -2.9%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: USM +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points.
Line move: Opened +7, now +6.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: USM +6.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (27.5-32.6) · Away 4-6 (27.3-27.3)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 11d rest · Away 9d rest
Signals: steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -7.5 (EV +27.3%)

#13 NFL TEN @ IND Sun 10:00 AM

Over 29.5

Best total · book line Over 44.5

EV–

Model87%

Price90¢

Pays1.10x

Score-12.4

Best spreadIND +5.5book IND -780% · 88¢ · EV -9.7%

Bets

63%

Money

67%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 29.5 vs the book's 44.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 48.2 combined vs the book's 44.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 44.5.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (23.3-30.1) · Away 2-8 (17.2-25.9)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +22.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Ashton Dulin WR (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 56.5 (EV -2.6%)

#26 NCAAF ELO @ STAN Sat 04:30 PM

Under 72.5

Best total · book line Under 56.5

EV–

Model85%

Price86¢

Pays1.15x

Score-12.7

Bets

86%

Money

77%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 72.5 vs the book's 56.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 51.3 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 86% of bets are on this side (money 77%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 52.5, now 56.5.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (18.0-36.3) · Away 6-4 (28.6-19.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.2d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 75.5 (EV +0.3%)

#27 NCAAF PSU @ MICH Sat 12:30 PM

PSU +20.5

Best spread · book line PSU +6.5

EV–

Model82%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-13.4

Best totalOver 27.5book Over 42.583% · 87¢ · EV -5.8%

Bets

74%

Money

84%

Sharp money +10Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 82%; adjusted to 82% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: PSU +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points.
Sharp money: 84% of the money on 74% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: PSU +6.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (24.5-18.4) · Away 6-4 (31.2-19.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 14.1d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: -14.5 (EV +78.0%)

#28 NCAAF FSU @ MIA Sat 04:00 PM

FSU +33.5

Best spread · book line FSU +20.5

EV–

Model79%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score-13.6

Best totalOver 39.5book Over 56.584% · 89¢ · EV -6.0%

Bets

49%

Money

46%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 79% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: FSU +33.5 vs the book's +20.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +16.5, now +20.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: FSU +21, vs +20.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 9-1 (41.9-11.6) · Away 4-6 (26.2-25.1)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 8d rest
Best-value line: +1.5 (EV +32.2%)

#29 NCAAF UVA @ SMU Sat 09:00 AM

UVA +21.5

Best spread · book line UVA +9.5

EV–

Model78%

Price80¢

Pays1.23x

Score-13.9

Best totalOver 34.5book Over 51.585% · 90¢ · EV -5.8%

Bets

57%

Money

64%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -4.4%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: UVA +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points.
Line move: Opened +6.5, now +9.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: UVA +10, vs +9.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (32.9-20.5) · Away 6-4 (28.7-18.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -14.5 (EV +45.8%)

#30 EPL HUL @ FUL Sat 07:00 AM

Over 0.5

Best total · book line Over 2.5

EV–

Model93%

Price95¢

Pays1.05x

Score-14.8

Bets

92%

Money

86%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -2.9%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 86%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over +101 / Under -113), vs 2.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 1-3-6 (0.9-1.5) · Away 2-3-1 (1.3-1.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6d rest

#31 NCAAF TCU @ BAY Sat 04:00 PM

TCU +17.5

Best spread · book line TCU +5.5

EV–

Model77%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score-15.1

Best totalOver 31.5book Over 48.585% · 89¢ · EV -5.0%

Bets

39%

Money

50%

Reverse line moveSharp money +11Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -6.4%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 77%; adjusted to 77% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: TCU +17.5 vs the book's +5.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 50% of the money on 39% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +6.5, now +5.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: TCU +6, vs +5.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (29.3-24.2) · Away 5-5 (24.2-18.5)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -6.0)
Rest: Home 13.9d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -11.5 (EV +60.0%)

#32 NCAAF OSU @ IU Sat 09:00 AM

Over 34.5

Best total · book line Over 50.5

EV–

Model83%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-15.2

Best spreadOSU +9.5book OSU -376% · 82¢ · EV -8.2%

Bets

59%

Money

55%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -3.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 34.5 vs the book's 50.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 49.3 combined vs the book's 50.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 48.5, now 50.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 50.5 (Over -103 / Under -113).
Form L10: Home 10-0 (36.8-11.5) · Away 8-2 (38.3-12.0)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +3.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Best-value line: 51.5 (EV -2.1%)

#6 NCAAF WASH @ PUR Fri 05:00 PM

Over 35.5

Best total · book line Over 50.5

EV–

Model82%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-15.8

Best spreadPUR +9.5book PUR -3.573% · 82¢ · EV -11.7%

Bets

64%

Money

68%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -4.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 35.5 vs the book's 50.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 53 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 50.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49.5 (Over -112 / Under -104), vs 50.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (23.5-34.8) · Away 5-5 (27.8-19.9)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -36.0)
Rest: Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 52.5 (EV +1.2%)

#14 NFL BAL @ CLE Sun 10:00 AM

Over 23.5

Best total · book line Over 40.5

EV–

Model90%

Price93¢

Pays1.07x

Score-16.2

Best spreadBAL +9.5book BAL -3.583% · 88¢ · EV -6.1%

Bets

79%

Money

73%

Public side

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 90%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -3.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 23.5 vs the book's 40.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 45.2 combined vs the book's 40.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 79% of bets are on this side (money 73%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 44.5, now 40.5.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (17.8-22.1) · Away 6-4 (28.1-22.4)
Head to head: 0-2 (avg margin -15.5)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Raheim Sanders RB (Out); KC Concepcion WR (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 44.5 (EV +3.3%)

#33 NCAAF ND @ BYU Sat 04:30 PM

BYU +23.5

Best spread · book line BYU +10.5

EV–

Model78%

Price79¢

Pays1.25x

Score-16.5

Best totalOver 29.5book Over 46.587% · 91¢ · EV -4.9%

Bets

64%

Money

57%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -3.2%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: BYU +23.5 vs the book's +10.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened +10, now +10.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BYU +10.5.
Form L10: Home 8-2 (29.8-17.8) · Away 10-0 (46.9-11.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.9d rest · Away 7.2d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -7.5 (EV +23.6%)

#34 NCAAF NW @ MSU Sat 09:00 AM

Over 32.5

Best total · book line Over 49.5

EV–

Model86%

Price89¢

Pays1.11x

Score-16.5

Best spreadNW +5.5book NW -776% · 85¢ · EV -11.1%

Bets

71%

Money

75%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 32.5 vs the book's 49.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 49 combined vs the book's 49.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 48.5, now 49.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49.5 (Over -110 / Under -106).
Form L10: Home 3-7 (21.3-25.3) · Away 5-5 (28.8-22.6)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 51.5 (EV -1.9%)

#35 NCAAF LOU @ SYR Sat 04:30 PM

Under 71.5

Best total · book line Under 55.5

EV–

Model83%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-16.6

Best spreadSYR +27.5book SYR +15.578% · 80¢ · EV -4.2%

Bets

60%

Money

57%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -3.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Under 71.5 vs the book's 55.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 56.6 combined vs the book's 55.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -115 / Under -102).
Form L10: Home 2-8 (21.9-33.0) · Away 4-6 (32.9-25.3)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest, road game #3 · Away 8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 35.5 (EV -0.3%)

#36 NCAAF ARK @ VAN Sat 04:00 PM

Over 34.5

Best total · book line Over 50.5

EV–

Model85%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-16.6

Best spreadVAN +6.5book VAN -677% · 83¢ · EV -7.7%

Bets

72%

Money

67%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 34.5 vs the book's 50.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 56.9 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 48.5, now 50.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 50.5 (Over -102 / Under -114).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (31.0-29.0) · Away 2-8 (22.7-31.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Best-value line: 55.5 (EV +2.5%)

#37 NCAAF BAMA @ TENN Sat 12:30 PM

Over 35.5

Best total · book line Over 50.5

EV–

Model84%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-16.7

Best spreadBAMA +4.5book BAMA -7.576% · 83¢ · EV -9.5%

Bets

61%

Money

63%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -4.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 35.5 vs the book's 50.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 54.7 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 56.5, now 50.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 51 (Over -107 / Under -109), vs 50.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (33.2-19.1) · Away 7-3 (37.6-19.5)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -17.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 55.5 (EV +8.6%)

#38 NCAAF ASU @ TTU Sat 12:30 PM

Over 34.5

Best total · book line Over 50.5

EV–

Model84%

Price87¢

Pays1.14x

Score-17.3

Best spreadASU +27.5book ASU +15.576% · 80¢ · EV -5.8%

Bets

83%

Money

86%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -4.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 34.5 vs the book's 50.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 51.2 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 83% of bets are on this side (money 86%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 50 (Over -110 / Under -106), vs 50.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 10-0 (37.7-12.4) · Away 6-4 (27.7-24.5)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -4.0)
Rest: Home 13.8d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Best-value line: 46.5 (EV -2.6%)

#15 NFL CHI @ ATL Sun 10:00 AM

Over 35.5

Best total · book line Over 51.5

EV–

Model87%

Price90¢

Pays1.10x

Score-17.5

Best spreadATL +13.5book ATL +1.580% · 85¢ · EV -6.3%

Bets

69%

Money

68%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -4.2%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 35.5 vs the book's 51.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 46.3 combined vs the book's 51.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 51.5.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (22.9-24.7) · Away 5-5 (24.7-20.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 6.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Kyle Monangai RB (Doubtful)
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 26.5 (EV -0.9%)

#39 NCAAF AUB @ UGA Sat 12:30 PM

UGA -7.5

Best spread · book line UGA -19.5

EV–

Model74%

Price78¢

Pays1.26x

Score-19.1

Best totalOver 32.5book Over 49.586% · 91¢ · EV -5.7%

Bets

61%

Money

72%

Sharp money +11Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 74%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -6.1%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 75%; adjusted to 74% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: UGA -7.5 vs the book's -19.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money: 72% of the money on 61% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened -16.5, now -19.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: UGA -20, vs -19.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 10-0 (39.1-11.3) · Away 5-5 (29.0-23.0)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +10.0)
Rest: Home 6.8d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -38.5 (EV +4.2%)

#40 NCAAF UNLV @ AFA Sat 12:30 PM

Over 33.5

Best total · book line Over 48.5

EV–

Model82%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-19.8

Best spreadUNLV +13.5book UNLV +1.577% · 84¢ · EV -9.2%

Bets

71%

Money

71%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -4.9%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 46.1 combined vs the book's 48.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -107 / Under -109).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (24.8-19.0) · Away 7-3 (26.8-21.6)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -3.0)
Rest: Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 27.5 (EV -4.7%)

#41 NCAAF TLSA @ RICE Sat 01:30 PM

RICE +16.5

Best spread · book line RICE +4

EV–

Model76%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score-19.9

Best totalOver 29.5book Over 46.586% · 92¢ · EV -6.8%

Bets

46%

Money

62%

Sharp money +16Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 76%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -7.0%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 77%; adjusted to 76% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: RICE +16.5 vs the book's +4: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 62% of the money on 46% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +3, now +4.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: RICE +3.5, vs +4 at other books.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (16.7-32.8) · Away 5-5 (26.7-25.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line: -14.5 (EV +28.7%)

#16 NFL PIT @ TB Sun 10:00 AM

PIT +9.5

Best spread · book line PIT -2.5

EV–

Model81%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-20.1

Best totalOver 22.5book Over 39.590% · 94¢ · EV -4.8%

Bets

70%

Money

77%

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -5.9%, priced against you).
Cushion: PIT +9.5 vs the book's -2.5: 12 extra points.
Line move: Opened +1.5, now -2.5.
Form L10: Home 2-8 (20.1-22.2) · Away 7-3 (22.7-20.7)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 9.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries: Home - · Away Ben Skowronek WR (Out); Roman Wilson WR (Out)
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: -7.5 (EV +14.6%)

#42 NCAAF UK @ OU Sat 04:30 PM

UK +20.5

Best spread · book line UK +6.5

EV–

Model81%

Price84¢

Pays1.18x

Score-21.3

Best totalOver 28.5book Over 43.584% · 88¢ · EV -5.6%

Bets

79%

Money

72%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -4.5%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 82%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: UK +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points.
Public side: 79% of bets are on this side (money 72%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: UK +6.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (23.1-18.9) · Away 7-3 (30.5-27.1)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line: -11.5 (EV +52.2%)

#43 NCAAF UNC @ DUKE Sat 12:30 PM

Over 30.5

Best total · book line Over 46.5

EV–

Model85%

Price89¢

Pays1.11x

Score-22.0

Best spreadUNC +16.5book UNC +378% · 84¢ · EV -8.1%

Bets

77%

Money

76%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -5.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 30.5 vs the book's 46.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 49.5 combined vs the book's 46.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 77% of bets are on this side (money 76%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 54.5, now 46.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 47 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 46.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (32.9-22.0) · Away 5-5 (22.0-22.2)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: 47.5 (EV -0.1%)

#44 NCAAF PITT @ BC Sat 09:00 AM

Over 28.5

Best total · book line Over 43.5

EV–

Model83%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-23.6

Best spreadPITT +5.5book PITT -6.576% · 82¢ · EV -8.0%

Bets

82%

Money

83%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -6.0%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 28.5 vs the book's 43.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 50.1 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 82% of bets are on this side (money 83%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 43.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -109 / Under -107), vs 43.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (21.0-27.3) · Away 7-3 (30.8-21.1)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -41.0)
Rest: Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 52.5 (EV +8.8%)

#45 NCAAF TROY @ UL Sat 02:00 PM

TROY +16.5

Best spread · book line TROY +3

EV–

Model78%

Price85¢

Pays1.16x

Score-24.5

Best totalOver 34.5book Over 49.582% · 87¢ · EV -6.4%

Bets

47%

Money

58%

Reverse line moveSharp money +11Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -8.8%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: TROY +16.5 vs the book's +3: 13.5 extra points.
Sharp money: 58% of the money on 47% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move: Opened +3.5, now +3 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: TROY +3.
Form L10: Home 8-2 (31.4-24.7) · Away 5-5 (22.3-24.4)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -12.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 10.9d rest
Best-value line: -17.5 (EV +36.0%)

#46 NCAAF SJSU @ UTEP Sat 06:00 PM

Over 30.5

Best total · book line Over 45.5

EV–

Model84%

Price89¢

Pays1.11x

Score-26.1

Best spreadSJSU +5.5book SJSU -776% · 84¢ · EV -10.5%

Bets

84%

Money

82%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -6.3%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 30.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 53.2 combined vs the book's 45.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 84% of bets are on this side (money 82%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 52.5, now 45.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 45.5 (Over -107 / Under -109).
Form L10: Home 1-9 (20.8-40.0) · Away 3-7 (16.9-28.8)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.1d rest · Away 8d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 48.5 (EV +0.4%)

#47 NCAAF BALL @ BGSU Sat 09:00 AM

Over 30.5

Best total · book line Over 47.5

EV–

Model85%

Price91¢

Pays1.09x

Score-28.1

Best spreadBGSU +5.5book BGSU -6.576% · 82¢ · EV -9.0%

Bets

76%

Money

81%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -7.6%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 30.5 vs the book's 47.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 48.3 combined vs the book's 47.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 76% of bets are on this side (money 81%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 44.5, now 47.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 46.5 (Over -110 / Under -106), vs 47.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 3-7 (18.0-26.3) · Away 2-8 (16.9-35.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: 66.5 (EV +2.6%)

#48 NCAAF KENT @ USF Sat 04:00 PM

USF -7.5

Best spread · book line USF -20.5

EV–

Model76%

Price81¢

Pays1.22x

Score-29.0

Best totalOver 30.5book Over 45.584% · 88¢ · EV -5.4%

Bets

56%

Money

57%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 76%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -7.4%, priced against you).
Learned: Raw model said 77%; adjusted to 76% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far.
Cushion: USF -7.5 vs the book's -20.5: 13 extra points.
Line move: Opened -18.5, now -20.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: USF -20.5.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (35.0-18.9) · Away 4-6 (18.8-30.6)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 9d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: -41.5 (EV +18.6%)

#49 NCAAF WIS @ UCLA Sat 04:30 PM

Over 28.5

Best total · book line Over 43.5

EV–

Model82%

Price88¢

Pays1.13x

Score-32.1

Best spreadUCLA +9.5book UCLA -2.574% · 82¢ · EV -10.9%

Bets

85%

Money

80%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -7.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 28.5 vs the book's 43.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 47.3 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 85% of bets are on this side (money 80%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 49.5, now 43.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 43.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (25.7-29.9) · Away 6-4 (21.9-17.2)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7.2d rest · Away 14.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line: 49.5 (EV +0.7%)

#50 NCAAF WMU @ CMU Sat 10:30 AM

Over 26.5

Best total · book line Over 43.5

EV–

Model84%

Price92¢

Pays1.08x

Score-35.3

Best spreadWMU +5.5book WMU -777% · 84¢ · EV -9.5%

Bets

72%

Money

71%

Pinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -8.7%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 26.5 vs the book's 43.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 43 combined vs the book's 43.5, which works against this pick.
Line move: Opened 47.5, now 43.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -106 / Under -110), vs 43.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 5-5 (19.2-23.8) · Away 8-2 (26.0-17.0)
Head to head: 0-1 (avg margin -3.0)
Rest: Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 65.5 (EV +3.8%)

#51 NCAAF NEV @ NDSU Sat 04:00 PM

Over 26.5

Best total · book line Over 42.5

EV–

Model85%

Price93¢

Pays1.07x

Score-36.0

Best spreadNDSU -2.5book NDSU -14.575% · 85¢ · EV -12.9%

Bets

87%

Money

88%

Public sidePinnacle-based

Why this bet & matchup notes

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -9.1%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 26.5 vs the book's 42.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 46.8 combined vs the book's 42.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 87% of bets are on this side (money 88%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move: Opened 45.5, now 42.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -103 / Under -114), vs 42.5 at other books.
Form L10: Home 8-2 (32.8-12.4) · Away 4-6 (24.1-24.4)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move
Best-value line: 62.5 (EV +16.9%)

No picks match these filters.

Parlays: Today

Top 2-leg EV-1.7%

#1 MLB Over 2.5 TB @ CLE
#2 NHL Over 3.5 PIT @ COL

Pays1.17x

Needs86%

Model hits84%

Why these bets

Over 2.5 · TB @ CLE

Price: Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -117 / Under +104).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0)
Head to head: 8-8 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest

Over 3.5 · PIT @ COL

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -121 / Under +107).
Goalies: PIT goalie unconfirmed; COL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest
Starters: PIT: Arturs Silovs, expected, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, expected, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV%

Top 3-leg EV-3.1%

#1 MLB Over 2.5 TB @ CLE
#2 NHL Over 3.5 PIT @ COL
#3 NCAAF Over 33.5 APP @ CC

Pays1.35x

Needs74%

Model hits72%

Why these bets

Over 2.5 · TB @ CLE

Price: Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -117 / Under +104).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0)
Head to head: 8-8 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest

Over 3.5 · PIT @ COL

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -121 / Under +107).
Goalies: PIT goalie unconfirmed; COL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest
Starters: PIT: Arturs Silovs, expected, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, expected, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV%

Over 33.5 · APP @ CC

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 48.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -110 / Under -106).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Top 4-leg EV-6.8%

#1 MLB Over 2.5 TB @ CLE
#2 NHL Over 3.5 PIT @ COL
#3 NCAAF Over 33.5 APP @ CC
#4 NCAAF Over 37.5 MEM @ TULN

Pays1.52x

Needs66%

Model hits61%

Why these bets

Over 2.5 · TB @ CLE

Price: Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -117 / Under +104).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0)
Head to head: 8-8 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest

Over 3.5 · PIT @ COL

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -121 / Under +107).
Goalies: PIT goalie unconfirmed; COL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest
Starters: PIT: Arturs Silovs, expected, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, expected, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV%

Over 33.5 · APP @ CC

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 48.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -110 / Under -106).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Over 37.5 · MEM @ TULN

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -3.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 37.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 54.5 (Over -112 / Under -104).
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest

Top 5-leg EV-9.4%

#1 MLB Over 2.5 TB @ CLE
#2 NHL Over 3.5 PIT @ COL
#3 NCAAF Over 33.5 APP @ CC
#4 NCAAF Over 37.5 MEM @ TULN
#5 NHL Over 3.5 BOS @ ANA

Pays1.69x

Needs59%

Model hits54%

Why these bets

Over 2.5 · TB @ CLE

Price: Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -117 / Under +104).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0)
Head to head: 8-8 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest

Over 3.5 · PIT @ COL

Price: Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -121 / Under +107).
Goalies: PIT goalie unconfirmed; COL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8)
Head to head: 1-1 (avg margin -0.5)
Rest: Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest
Starters: PIT: Arturs Silovs, expected, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, expected, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV%

Over 33.5 · APP @ CC

Price: Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move: Opened 53.5, now 48.5.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -110 / Under -106).
Form L10: Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0)
Head to head: no recent meetings
Rest: Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest
Signals: reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move

Over 37.5 · MEM @ TULN

Price: Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -3.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 37.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 54.5 (Over -112 / Under -104).
Form L10: Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6)
Head to head: 1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest: Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest

Over 3.5 · BOS @ ANA

Price: Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.8%, priced against you).
Cushion: Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring: These teams' last 10 games average about 5.9 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side: 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line: Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -115 / Under +102), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies: BOS goalie unconfirmed; ANA goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10: Home 6-4 (3.6-2.9) · Away 7-3 (3.4-2.0)
Head to head: 2-0 (avg margin +1.5)
Rest: Home 3d rest · Away 2.9d rest
Starters: BOS: Jeremy Swayman, expected, #1 goalie, 0.930 SV% | ANA: Lukas Dostal, expected, #1 goalie, 0.892 SV%
Signals: reverse_line_move, steam, steam

Heavy-favorite add-ons

No heavy favorites meet the rules today.

Results

Chart appears after two graded days. So far: -0.98 units.

League	Record	Win	Units
MLB	1-1	50%	-0.78
NBA	2-0	100%	+0.32
NCAAF	2-1	67%	-0.68
NFL	1-0	100%	+0.16
NHL	15-3	83%	+0.00

	Pick	Final
L	CGY +2.5 #6 NHL · CGY @ VGK	2-6
W	Over 3.5 #51 NHL · CGY @ VGK	2-6
W	Over 3.5 #37 NHL · UTA @ EDM	4-2
W	HOU +16.5 #4 NBA · OKC @ HOU	89-116
W	Under 54.5 #26 NFL · SEA @ DEN	14-17
L	CSU +27.5 #7 NCAAF · CSU @ TXST	27-66
W	SJ +2.5 #15 NHL · SJ @ NSH	3-2
W	Over 3.5 #20 NHL · SJ @ NSH	3-2
W	Under 11.5 #39 MLB · MIL @ LAD	6-4
L	Under 8.5 #46 NHL · STL @ MIN	4-5
W	Over 3.5 #53 NHL · WPG @ CHI	3-4
W	TOR +18.5 #3 NBA · TOR @ NYK	120-122

Your bets

No bets logged yet.

Missing matches

1 of our games have no Kalshi price · 89 Kalshi games didn't link

If a game appears in both lists under different names, it's a name mismatch. Send both names and they'll be added as an alias. Games only in our list usually just aren't on Kalshi yet.

Kalshi games not linked

Tottenham vs Coventry EPL · 2026-10-19 · TOT vs COV
Game 5: Tampa Bay vs Cleveland MLB · 2026-10-17 ·
Charleston Southern vs Clemson NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · CHSO vs CLEM
Columbia vs Penn NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · CLMB vs PENN
Illinois St. vs Southern Illinois NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · ILST vs SIU
Louisiana Tech vs Louisiana-Monroe NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · LT vs ULM
Navy vs UTSA NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · NAVY vs UTSA
New Mexico vs Hawai'i NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · UNM vs HAW
Ohio vs Sacramento St. NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · OHIO vs SAC
Utah vs Colorado NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · UTAH vs COLO
Wake Forest vs California NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · WAKE vs CAL
Abilene Christian vs North Alabama NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · AC vs UNA
Alabama St. vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ALST vs ARPB
Alcorn St. vs Prairie View A&M NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ALCN vs PV
Austin Peay vs West Georgia NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · PEAY vs UWGA
Bethune-Cookman vs Mississippi Valley St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · COOK vs MVSU
Brown vs Princeton NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · BRWN vs PRIN
Bryant vs Maine NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · BRY vs ME
Cal Poly vs Northern Colorado NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CP vs UNCO
Central Arkansas vs Tarleton St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CARK vs TARL
Central Connecticut St. vs Mercyhurst NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CCSU vs MHU
Chicago St. vs North Carolina A&T NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CHS vs NCAT
Dayton vs Butler NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · DAY vs BUT
Duquesne vs Stonehill NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · DUQ vs STNH
East Texas A&M vs Houston Christian NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ETAM vs HCU
Eastern Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · EKY vs TNTC
Florida A&M vs Jackson St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · FAMU vs JKST
Fresno St. vs San Diego St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · FRES vs SDSU
Gardner-Webb vs Tennessee-Martin NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · WEBB vs UTM
Georgetown vs Colgate NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · GTWN vs COLG
Grambling St. vs Alabama A&M NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · GRAM vs AAMU
Hampton vs Sacred Heart NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · HAMP vs SHU
Holy Cross vs Harvard NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · HC vs HARV
Idaho St. vs Weber St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · IDST vs WEB
Idaho vs Montana NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · IDHO vs MONT
Illinois St. vs Southern Illinois NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ILST vs SIU
Kansas vs Kansas St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · KU vs KSU
LIU vs Wagner NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LIU vs WAG
Lafayette vs Bucknell NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LAF vs BUCK
Lamar vs Southeastern Louisiana NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LAM vs SELA
Lehigh vs Cornell NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LEH vs COR
Lindenwood vs Eastern Illinois NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LINW vs EIU
Marist vs Drake NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MRST vs DRKE
McNeese vs Northwestern St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MCNS vs NWST
Mercer vs Samford NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MER vs SAM
Merrimack vs Dartmouth NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MRMK vs DART
Monmouth vs New Hampshire NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MONM vs UNH
Montana St. vs Eastern Washington NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MTST vs EWU
Morehead St. vs Davidson NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MORE vs DAV
Morgan St. vs Tennessee St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MORG vs TNST
Nebraska vs Oregon NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · NEB vs ORE
New Haven vs Robert Morris NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · NHC vs RMU
New Mexico vs Hawai'i NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UNM vs HAW
Northern Iowa vs Youngstown St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UNI vs YSU
Portland St. vs Northern Arizona NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · PRST vs NAU
Presbyterian vs Stetson NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · PRE vs STET
Rhode Island vs Yale NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · URI vs YALE
South Dakota St. vs North Dakota NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SDST vs UND
South Dakota vs Murray St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SDAK vs MURR
Stephen F. Austin vs Nicholls St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SFA vs NICH
Towson vs Campbell NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · TOWS vs CAMP
UC Davis vs Southern Utah NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UCD vs SUU
UT Rio Grande Valley vs Incarnate Word NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UTRGV vs IW
University at Albany vs Stony Brook NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ALBY vs STON
Utah vs Colorado NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UTAH vs COLO
VMI vs Wofford NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · VMI vs WOF
Valparaiso vs San Diego NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · VALP vs USD
Villanova vs Fordham NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · VILL vs FOR
Wake Forest vs California NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · WAKE vs CAL
Western Illinois vs Southeast Missouri St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · WIU vs SEMO
Middle Tennessee vs Florida International NCAAF · 2026-10-20 · MTU vs FIU
Missouri St. vs Delaware NCAAF · 2026-10-20 · MOSU vs DEL
South Alabama vs Marshall NCAAF · 2026-10-20 · USA vs MRSH
Boston vs Los Angeles NHL · 2026-10-17 · BOS vs LA
Buffalo vs Montreal NHL · 2026-10-17 · BUF vs MTL
Carolina vs Winnipeg NHL · 2026-10-17 · CAR vs WPG
Dallas vs Chicago NHL · 2026-10-17 · DAL vs CHI
Edmonton vs Utah NHL · 2026-10-17 · EDM vs UTA
New Jersey vs Washington NHL · 2026-10-17 · NJ vs WSH
New York I vs Toronto NHL · 2026-10-17 · NYI vs TOR
New York R vs Columbus NHL · 2026-10-17 · NYR vs CBJ
Ottawa vs Philadelphia NHL · 2026-10-17 · OTT vs PHI
Pittsburgh vs Vegas NHL · 2026-10-17 · PIT vs VGK
San Jose vs Detroit NHL · 2026-10-17 · SJ vs DET
Seattle vs Florida NHL · 2026-10-17 · SEA vs FLA
St. Louis vs Nashville NHL · 2026-10-17 · STL vs NSH
Vancouver vs Tampa Bay NHL · 2026-10-17 · VAN vs TB
Carolina vs Calgary NHL · 2026-10-18 · CAR vs CGY
Columbus vs Minnesota NHL · 2026-10-18 · CBJ vs MIN

Our games without a Kalshi price

KU @ KSU NCAAF · Sat 09:00 AM · Kansas Jayhawks @ Kansas State Wildcats

EV = model win chance × Kalshi payout − 1. Positive means the price is in your favor by the model's estimate. Model numbers are estimates; check results over 100+ picks before trusting any pattern.