#1
NFL
DAL @ GB
Sun 05:20 PM
Over 37.5
Best total · book line Over 53
EV -2.2%
Model 87%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score 41.1
Bets 62% · Money 82% 🔥 Sharp play: 82% of money on 62% of bets
+ Add Over 37.5 + Add DAL +13.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread DAL +13.5 book DAL +1.5 81% · 86¢ · EV -6.3%
🔥 Sharp play: 82% of money on 62% of bets
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 37.5 vs the book's 53: 15.5 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 50.5 combined vs the book's 53, which works against this pick. Sharp money 82% of the money on 62% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 51.5, now 53. Form L10 Home 4-6 (20.1-24.6) · Away 3-7 (25.8-30.5) Head to head 0-1-0 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7.3d rest · Away 10d rest Injuries Home - · Away Skyy Moore WR (Out) Signals steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 31.5 (EV -1.3%)
#1
LIGUE1
BRE @ LILL
Sat 11:45 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV +1.9%
Model 87%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score 7.4
No betting splits
+ Add Under 4.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV +1.9%, priced in your favor). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over -109 / Under -103), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-2-2 (1.2-0.7) · Away 2-3-5 (1.4-1.7) Head to head 0-2-0 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +8.0%)
#2
NCAAF
MORE @ DAV
Sat 10:00 AM
DAV +12.5
Best spread · book line DAV -1.5
EV +1.8%
Model 79%
Price 76¢
Pays 1.29x
Score 7.2
No betting splits
+ Add DAV +12.5 + Add Under 73.5
Details
Best total Under 73.5 book Under 56.5 85% · 87¢ · EV -3.7%
Price Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 76¢ (EV +1.8%, priced in your favor). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 79% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion DAV +12.5 vs the book's -1.5: 14 extra points. Form L10 Home 3-7 (19.5-36.1) · Away 4-6 (24.1-36.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -4.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line +20.5 (EV +7.2%)
#2
NFL
LAC @ KC
Sun 01:25 PM
LAC +20.5
Best spread · book line LAC +7.5
EV +0.5%
Model 84%
Price 83¢
Pays 1.19x
Score 6.6
Bets 40% · Money 49%
+ Add LAC +20.5 + Add Over 25.5
Details
Best total Over 25.5 book Over 41.5 87% · 93¢ · EV -6.5%
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV +0.5%, priced in your favor). Cushion LAC +20.5 vs the book's +7.5: 13 extra points. Line move Opened +2.5, now +7.5. Form L10 Home 4-6 (20.3-20.4) · Away 3-7 (17.5-21.7) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -4.5) Rest Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Alec Ingold FB (Out); Rashee Rice WR (Out); Tre' Harris WR (Out); Brenen Thompson WR (Doubtful) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -9.5 (EV +76.9%)
#3
NCAAF
MONM @ UNH
Sat 10:00 AM
Under 74.5
Best total · book line Under 57.5
EV +1.3%
Model 88%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score 5.1
No betting splits
+ Add Under 74.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread UNH +19 book UNH +7 90% · no price · EV –
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.3%, priced in your favor). Cushion Under 74.5 vs the book's 57.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 55.6 combined vs the book's 57.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -107 / Under -109), vs 57.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 4-6 (21.4-31.5) · Away 6-4 (29.4-29.0) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +21.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14d rest Best-value line 46.5 (EV +6.8%)
#4
SERIEA
NAP @ VEN
Sat 06:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV +1.2%
Model 87%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score 4.6
No betting splits
+ Add Under 4.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +1.2%, priced in your favor). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over -103 / Under -109), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 0-6 (0.8-2.7) · Away 5-2-3 (1.6-0.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 4.9d rest · Away 6.8d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +10.1%)
#5
LALIGA
ATH @ VAL
Sat 12:00 PM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV +1.0%
Model 93%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score 4.0
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.25 (Over -112 / Under +100), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-2-5 (1.3-1.9) · Away 2-3-5 (1.0-1.4) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +1.5) Rest Home 6d rest · Away 28.2d rest Best-value line 4.5 (EV +20.8%)
#6
SERIEA
GEN @ ROMA
Sat 11:45 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV +1.0%
Model 89%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score 4.0
No betting splits
+ Add Under 4.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 3.5, now 2.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over +110 / Under -124), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 8-2-0 (2.5-0.5) · Away 1-3-6 (0.6-1.4) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 6.3d rest · Away 7.2d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +15.4%)
#7
BUNDESLIGA
DOR @ FCU
Sat 06:30 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV +0.8%
Model 87%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score 3.3
No betting splits
+ Add Over 1.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.8%, priced in your favor). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.5 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.25 (Over +106 / Under -120), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-2-5 (1.6-2.5) · Away 7-1-2 (2.1-0.9) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -3.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.8d rest Best-value line 5.5 (EV +14.0%)
#8
NCAAF
MASS @ BUFF
Sat 10:00 AM
BUFF +5.5
Best spread · book line BUFF -7
EV -12.5%
Model 75%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score 3.0
Bets 50% · Money 76% 🔥 Sharp play: 76% of money on 50% of bets
+ Add BUFF +5.5 + Add Over 27.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 27.5 book Over 42.5 84% · 89¢ · EV -6.4%
🔥 Sharp play: 76% of money on 50% of bets Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -12.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion BUFF +5.5 vs the book's -7: 12.5 extra points. Sharp money 76% of the money on 50% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened -3.5, now -7. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BUFF -7. Form L10 Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +7.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest Signals steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line +17.5 (EV -5.3%)
#9
BUNDESLIGA
FCA @ ELV
Sat 06:30 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV +0.6%
Model 88%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score 2.6
No betting splits
+ Add Over 1.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.5 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.25 (Over -110 / Under -102), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 2-1-2 (1.6-1.6) · Away 5-3-2 (2.2-1.6) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 5.5 (EV +14.4%)
#10
NCAAF
HC @ HARV
Sat 10:00 AM
HC +38.5
Best spread · book line HC +15.5
EV +0.5%
Model 93%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score 2.0
No betting splits
+ Add HC +38.5 + Add Under 64.5
Details
Best total Under 64.5 book Under 49.5 81% · 86¢ · EV -6.4%
Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV +0.5%, about fair). Cushion HC +38.5 vs the book's +15.5: 23 extra points. Form L10 Home 8-2 (28.3-24.1) · Away 4-6 (22.9-28.3) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +35.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.9d rest, road game #3 Best-value line -5.5 (EV +36.4%)
#11
NCAAF
RUT @ UMD
Sat 09:30 AM
Under 71.5
Best total · book line Under 55.5
EV -0.0%
Model 84%
Price 83¢
Pays 1.19x
Score 1.9
Bets 62% · Money 66%
+ Add Under 71.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.0%, about fair). Cushion Under 71.5 vs the book's 55.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 55.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 56.5, now 55.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -106 / Under -110), vs 55.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (26.6-19.0) · Away 3-7 (27.0-32.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 77.5 (EV +3.1%)
#12
NCAAF
GT @ VT
Sat 12:30 PM
GT +20.5
Best spread · book line GT +8.5
EV +0.6%
Model 79%
Price 77¢
Pays 1.28x
Score 1.7
Bets 76% · Money 75%
+ Add GT +20.5 + Add Under 72.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Under 72.5 book Under 56.5 84% · 86¢ · EV -2.9%
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 77¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 79% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion GT +20.5 vs the book's +8.5: 12 extra points. Public side 76% of bets are on this side (money 75%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened +9.5, now +8.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: GT +8, vs +8.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 4-6 (28.0-24.7) · Away 4-6 (28.6-28.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -15.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -10.5 (EV +87.1%)
#13
NCAAF
CCSU @ MERC
Sat 09:00 AM
MERC +31.5
Best spread · book line MERC +7
EV +0.3%
Model 93%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score 1.4
No betting splits
+ Add MERC +31.5 + Add Under 70.5
Details
Best total Under 70.5 book Under 53.5 85% · 87¢ · EV -3.7%
Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair). Cushion MERC +31.5 vs the book's +7: 24.5 extra points. Form L10 Home 3-7 (19.7-34.8) · Away 5-5 (29.3-29.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -7.0) Rest Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
#3
LALIGA
RAC @ OSA
Sun 05:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV +0.3%
Model 96%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score 1.3
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details
Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 2-2-6 (0.9-2.1) · Away 2-2-4 (1.6-2.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.7d rest
#14
NCAAF
NIU @ WYO
Sat 12:30 PM
NIU +20.5
Best spread · book line NIU +8
EV -1.8%
Model 80%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score 1.2
Bets 42% · Money 59%
+ Add NIU +20.5 + Add Over 25.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 25.5 book Over 41.5 84% · 90¢ · EV -7.3%
Sharp money +17 Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -1.8%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 80%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion NIU +20.5 vs the book's +8: 12.5 extra points. Sharp money 59% of the money on 42% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +7.5, now +8. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: NIU +7.5, vs +8 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-7 (11.1-21.1) · Away 2-8 (18.1-29.5) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest Best-value line -14.5 (EV +84.8%)
#15
LALIGA
ATM @ ESP
Sat 05:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV +0.3%
Model 87%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score 1.0
No betting splits
+ Add Under 4.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over +105 / Under -118), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-3-4 (1.4-1.3) · Away 7-1-2 (2.0-1.3) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 7.7d rest · Away 6.9d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +6.3%)
#4
NFL
HOU @ JAC
Sun 06:30 AM
Over 27.5
Best total · book line Over 42.5
EV -2.9%
Model 87%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score 0.9
Bets 45% · Money 60%
+ Add Over 27.5 + Add JAC +9.5
Details · 2 tags
Best spread JAC +9.5 book JAC -2.5 82% · 84¢ · EV -3.6%
Reverse line move Sharp money +15
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.9%, priced against you). Cushion Over 27.5 vs the book's 42.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 42.5, which supports this pick. Sharp money 60% of the money on 45% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 40.5, now 42.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Form L10 Home 9-1 (30.5-15.3) · Away 6-4 (25.1-20.9) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6.9d rest Injuries Home - · Away David Montgomery RB (Out); Tank Dell WR (Out) Signals steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 54.5 (EV +0.8%)
#16
EPL
CHE @ EVE
Sat 04:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV –
Model 94%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.5
Bets 95% · Money 96%
Details · 3 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based No Kalshi market
Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over -115 / Under +103), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 2-6-2 (1.4-1.4) · Away 4-2-4 (2.0-2.0) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 5.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
#17
NCAAF
LEH @ COR
Sat 11:00 AM
COR +23.5
Best spread · book line COR +11.5
EV –
Model 77%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Under 62.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Under 62.5 book Under 46.5 84% · 87¢ · EV -4.5%
No Kalshi market
Cushion COR +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 6-4 (25.4-23.1) · Away 9-1 (31.6-12.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14.1d rest
#18
NCAAF
ALB @ STBK
Sat 11:30 AM
ALB +18
Best spread · book line ALB +6
EV –
Model 77%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Under 63.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Under 63.5 book Under 46.5 84% · 87¢ · EV -4.5%
No Kalshi market
Cushion ALB +18 vs the book's +6: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 6-4 (32.6-27.6) · Away 4-6 (20.9-22.5) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +35.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 14d rest
#19
NCAAF
MRST @ DRKE
Sat 10:00 AM
MRST +16.5
Best spread · book line MRST +4.5
EV –
Model 79%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 33.5 book Over 48.5 83% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Cushion MRST +16.5 vs the book's +4.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 4-6 (21.4-28.8) · Away 5-5 (25.8-21.2) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +14.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.8d rest
#20
NCAAF
GTWN @ COLG
Sat 10:00 AM
GTWN +30.5
Best spread · book line GTWN +18.5
EV –
Model 79%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Over 24.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 24.5 book Over 45.5 90% · 96¢ · EV -6.1%
No Kalshi market
Cushion GTWN +30.5 vs the book's +18.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 6-4 (24.4-21.0) · Away 3-7 (16.3-27.6) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -4.0) Rest Home 13.8d rest · Away 7d rest
#21
NCAAF
MCN @ NWST
Sat 10:00 AM
NWST +33
Best spread · book line NWST +21
EV –
Model 77%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 41.5 book Over 56.5 82% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Cushion NWST +33 vs the book's +21: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 0-10 (15.3-47.9) · Away 5-5 (27.3-24.9) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -47.0) Rest Home 13.8d rest · Away 13.7d rest
#22
NCAAF
CHST @ NCAT
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 41.5
Best total · book line Over 56.5
EV –
Model 83%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
Details · 1 tag
Best spread CHST +28.5 book CHST +16.5 76% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Cushion Over 41.5 vs the book's 56.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 62.6 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 54.5, now 56.5. Form L10 Home 2-8 (18.3-38.0) · Away 1-5 (29.0-39.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest
#23
NCAAF
SDST @ UND
Sat 11:00 AM
Over 41.5
Best total · book line Over 56.5
EV –
Model 83%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
Details · 1 tag
Best spread UND +26 book UND +14 79% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Cushion Over 41.5 vs the book's 56.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 59.7 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 6-4 (34.7-26.2) · Away 7-3 (37.0-21.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -3.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 13.8d rest
#24
NCAAF
APSU @ WES
Sat 11:00 AM
WES +33
Best spread · book line WES +21
EV –
Model 79%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Under 72.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Under 72.5 book Under 55.5 85% · 87¢ · EV -2.9%
No Kalshi market
Cushion WES +33 vs the book's +21: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 4-6 (18.8-27.4) · Away 7-3 (36.9-23.6) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -14.0) Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest
#25
NCAAF
DUQ @ STO
Sat 09:00 AM
DUQ +14.5
Best spread · book line DUQ +2.5
EV –
Model 77%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Under 63.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Under 63.5 book Under 46.5 85% · 87¢ · EV -2.6%
No Kalshi market
Cushion DUQ +14.5 vs the book's +2.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 3-7 (17.2-23.7) · Away 4-6 (20.6-27.2) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -20.0) Rest Home 7d rest, road game #5 · Away 7d rest
#26
NCAAF
NH @ RMU
Sat 09:00 AM
NH +22
Best spread · book line NH +10
EV –
Model 78%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Over 25.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 25.5 book Over 46.5 91% · 96¢ · EV -5.7%
No Kalshi market
Cushion NH +22 vs the book's +10: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 4-6 (22.5-23.9) · Away 3-7 (22.2-27.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.8d rest, road game #3
#27
BUNDESLIGA
RBL @ MUN
Sat 09:30 AM
Under 6.5
Best total · book line Under 4.5
EV –
Model 81%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
Details · 2 tags
Pinnacle-based No Kalshi market
Cushion Under 6.5 vs the book's 4.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 4.3 combined vs the book's 4.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 4.5 (Over -111 / Under -101). Form L10 Home 7-3-0 (3.3-1.3) · Away 6-4 (2.5-1.6) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +5.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest
#28
NCAAF
URI @ YALE
Sat 09:00 AM
URI +26
Best spread · book line URI +14
EV –
Model 79%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Under 66.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Under 66.5 book Under 50.5 83% · 87¢ · EV -5.2%
No Kalshi market
Cushion URI +26 vs the book's +14: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +10, now +14. Form L10 Home 8-2 (30.4-23.0) · Away 6-4 (27.0-23.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14d rest
#29
NCAAF
BRWN @ PRIN
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 23.5
Best total · book line Over 38.5
EV –
Model 83%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
Details · 1 tag
Best spread BRWN +18.5 book BRWN +6.5 77% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Cushion Over 23.5 vs the book's 38.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 41.5 combined vs the book's 38.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 36.5, now 38.5. Form L10 Home 4-6 (20.3-16.7) · Away 4-6 (22.0-23.9) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +19.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
#30
NCAAF
DAY @ BTLR
Sat 10:00 AM
DAY +17.5
Best spread · book line DAY +5.5
EV –
Model 78%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 35.5 book Over 50.5 83% · no price · EV –
No Kalshi market
Cushion DAY +17.5 vs the book's +5.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 6-4 (30.7-23.6) · Away 6-4 (28.1-20.0) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +6.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
#31
NCAAF
VMI @ WOF
Sat 10:30 AM
VMI +40.5
Best spread · book line VMI +28.5
EV –
Model 79%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Under 62.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Under 62.5 book Under 46.5 83% · 88¢ · EV -6.8%
No Kalshi market
Cushion VMI +40.5 vs the book's +28.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 7-3 (27.0-20.8) · Away 0-10 (10.4-41.8) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +42.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14d rest
#32
NCAAF
PRES @ STET
Sat 11:00 AM
STET +22.5
Best spread · book line STET +10.5
EV –
Model 76%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Under 75.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Under 75.5 book Under 59.5 84% · 86¢ · EV -3.3%
No Kalshi market
Cushion STET +22.5 vs the book's +10.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 1-9 (17.4-42.7) · Away 6-4 (27.2-30.3) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -35.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
#33
NCAAF
BRY @ ME
Sat 10:00 AM
BRY +10.5
Best spread · book line BRY -1.5
EV –
Model 76%
Price –
Pays –
Score 0.0
No betting splits
+ Add Over 31.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 31.5 book Over 46.5 83% · 87¢ · EV -5.6%
No Kalshi market
Cushion BRY +10.5 vs the book's -1.5: 12 extra points. Form L10 Home 3-7 (19.0-29.1) · Away 5-5 (19.9-27.6) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +20.0) Rest Home 13.9d rest · Away 7d rest
#34
NCAAF
MRMK @ DART
Sat 10:00 AM
MRMK +33.5
Best spread · book line MRMK +10
EV -0.0%
Model 92%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -0.1
No betting splits
+ Add MRMK +33.5 + Add Under 63.5
Details
Best total Under 63.5 book Under 47.5 83% · 87¢ · EV -5.1%
Price Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -0.0%, about fair). Cushion MRMK +33.5 vs the book's +10: 23.5 extra points. Line move Opened +11.5, now +10. Form L10 Home 5-5 (23.0-20.6) · Away 3-7 (21.3-31.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14d rest Best-value line -10.5 (EV +46.9%)
#35
SERIEA
INT @ BOL
Sat 09:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV -0.0%
Model 84%
Price 83¢
Pays 1.19x
Score -0.1
No betting splits
+ Add Under 4.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.0%, about fair). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.2 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over -118 / Under +105), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-4-3 (1.2-1.2) · Away 7-3-0 (2.7-1.2) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.0) Rest Home 6.1d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +5.1%)
#1
NHL
BOS @ ANA
Fri 07:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV -0.2%
Model 90%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -0.2
Bets 92% · Money 93%
+ Add Over 3.5
Details · 3 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based BOS backup goalie
Price Model gives it 90%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair). Cushion Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 5.9 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick. Public side 92% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -105 / Under -107). Goalies BOS backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under. Form L10 Home 6-4 (3.6-2.9) · Away 7-3 (3.4-2.0) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +1.5) Rest Home 3d rest · Away 2.9d rest Starters BOS: Michael DiPietro, confirmed, backup, 1.000 SV% | ANA: Lukas Dostal, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.892 SV% Injuries Home - · Away Mikael Granlund F (Out) Signals reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 9.5 (EV +23.6%)
#36
LALIGA
ELC @ VIL
Sat 07:15 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -0.1%
Model 87%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -0.5
No betting splits
+ Add Over 1.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.1%, about fair). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.2 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.25 (Over +100 / Under -113), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-2-5 (1.8-1.6) · Away 2-4-4 (1.3-1.8) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +1.5) Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.1d rest Best-value line 4.5 (EV +6.6%)
#37
BUNDESLIGA
M05 @ S04
Sat 06:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.2%
Model 95%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -0.6
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.1 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over +107 / Under -121), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 1-2-2 (0.8-1.2) · Away 4-2-4 (2.2-1.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest
#2
NCAAF
WASH @ PUR
Fri 05:00 PM
WASH +16.5
Best spread · book line WASH +3
EV -1.3%
Model 82%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -0.8
Bets 54% · Money 63%
+ Add WASH +16.5 + Add Over 35.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 35.5 book Over 50.5 83% · 84¢ · EV -2.8%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 82%; adjusted to 82% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion WASH +16.5 vs the book's +3: 13.5 extra points. Line move Opened +1.5, now +3. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: WASH +3. Form L10 Home 3-7 (23.5-34.8) · Away 5-5 (27.8-19.9) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -36.0) Rest Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -17.5 (EV +47.6%)
#5
LIGUE1
MON @ LOR
Sun 08:15 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.3%
Model 93%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -1.3
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details
Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 3-3-4 (1.4-1.3) · Away 5-3-2 (1.8-1.4) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +2.0) Rest Home 7.9d rest · Away 7.9d rest
#6
NFL
BUF @ LV
Sun 01:25 PM
LV +16.5
Best spread · book line LV +4.5
EV -3.0%
Model 81%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -1.7
Bets 40% · Money 51%
+ Add LV +16.5 + Add Over 38.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 38.5 book Over 53.5 85% · 88¢ · EV -3.7%
Reverse line move Sharp money +11
Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you). Cushion LV +16.5 vs the book's +4.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 51% of the money on 40% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +6.5, now +4.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Form L10 Home 4-6 (19.4-25.3) · Away 8-2 (30.8-24.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 5.8d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +40.8%)
#7
LIGUE1
REN @ PAR
Sun 08:15 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.5%
Model 95%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -1.8
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details
Price Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.5%, about fair). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 5-2-3 (1.5-0.8) · Away 6-1-3 (1.9-1.9) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -1.0) Rest Home 7.9d rest · Away 7d rest
#38
EPL
AVL @ NEW
Sat 09:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.7%
Model 96%
Price 96¢
Pays 1.04x
Score -1.9
Bets 93% · Money 95%
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 2 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 93% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over +103 / Under -115), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 4-3-3 (1.7-1.8) · Away 3-3-4 (1.5-1.8) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.0) Rest Home 4.9d rest · Away 7.1d rest
#8
LIGUE1
AUX @ HAC
Sun 08:15 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.6%
Model 94%
Price 94¢
Pays 1.06x
Score -2.4
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details
Price Model gives it 94%; Kalshi charges 94¢ (EV -0.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.1 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 1-4-5 (1.1-1.4) · Away 5-5 (1.7-2.1) Head to head 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 4.5 (EV +1.2%)
#9
LIGUE1
NICE @ LYON
Sun 11:45 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.7%
Model 95%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -2.6
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details
Price Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.6 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 5-2-3 (1.9-1.4) · Away 2-5-3 (0.8-1.1) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 9d rest · Away 7.2d rest
#39
EPL
LFC @ BRE
Sat 07:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.6%
Model 96%
Price 96¢
Pays 1.04x
Score -2.6
Bets 93% · Money 93%
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 2 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 93% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 3.5, now 2.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over -109 / Under -103), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-6-1 (1.8-1.2) · Away 2-5-3 (1.3-1.6) Head to head 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 5.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
#40
NCAAF
LT @ ULM
Sat 05:00 PM
ULM +27.5
Best spread · book line ULM +15.5
EV -2.2%
Model 78%
Price 79¢
Pays 1.25x
Score -2.8
Bets 70% · Money 82%
+ Add ULM +27.5 + Add Under 72.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Under 72.5 book Under 56.5 84% · 87¢ · EV -4.6%
Sharp money +12 Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion ULM +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 82% of the money on 70% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +14.5, now +15.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: ULM +14.5, vs +15.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 0-10 (20.2-39.0) · Away 6-4 (33.4-27.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +22.3%)
#3
NCAAF
APP @ CC
Fri 05:00 PM
Over 33.5
Best total · book line Over 48.5
EV -1.2%
Model 86%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -2.8
Bets 73% · Money 77%
+ Add Over 33.5 + Add CC +13.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread CC +13.5 book CC +1.5 77% · 81¢ · EV -5.9%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 53.5, now 48.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -112 / Under -104). Form L10 Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 66.5 (EV +16.6%)
#41
LIGUE1
RCL @ TRY
Sat 11:45 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.7%
Model 96%
Price 96¢
Pays 1.04x
Score -2.9
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.9 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over -103 / Under -110), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 1-1-4 (0.7-2.2) · Away 4-2-4 (1.7-1.3) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6d rest · Away 8d rest
#10
EPL
MUN @ LEE
Sun 06:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.8%
Model 95%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -3.2
Bets 94% · Money 94%
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 1 tag
Public side
Price Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.8%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.7 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 94% of bets are on this side (money 94%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Form L10 Home 4-4-2 (1.3-1.0) · Away 4-4-2 (1.8-1.3) Head to head 1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5) Rest Home 8.1d rest · Away 7.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move
#11
SERIEA
COMO @ FIO
Sun 06:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -0.9%
Model 94%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -3.5
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details
Price Model gives it 94%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -0.9%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Form L10 Home 2-3-5 (1.0-1.9) · Away 6-3-1 (1.5-0.7) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 7.1d rest
#4
MLB
TB @ CLE
Fri 05:00 PM
Over 2.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV -1.1%
Model 91%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -4.0
Bets 82% · Money 83% Held from parlays: starter not announced
+ Add Over 2.5 + Add TB +1.5
Details · 5 tags
Best spread TB +1.5 book TB -1.5 67% · 70¢ · EV -6.4%
Public side Pinnacle-based TB pitcher not announced CLE pitcher not announced Held from parlays: starter not announced
Price Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 2.5 vs the book's 6.5: 4 runs of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 7.3 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick. Public side 82% of bets are on this side (money 83%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -105 / Under -107). Form L10 Home 6-4 (4.7-3.1) · Away 6-4 (3.9-3.0) Head to head 8-8 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 1.3d rest · Away 1.3d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +0.5%)
#12
EPL
CRY @ BRI
Sun 06:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.2%
Model 96%
Price 97¢
Pays 1.03x
Score -4.4
Bets 93% · Money 94%
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 1 tag
Public side
Price Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 97¢ (EV -1.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 93% of bets are on this side (money 94%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Form L10 Home 5-1-4 (2.2-1.2) · Away 2-3-5 (1.4-2.1) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 7d rest
#13
SERIEA
ATA @ MIL
Sun 09:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV -1.1%
Model 84%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -4.5
No betting splits
+ Add Under 4.5
Details
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.6 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Form L10 Home 4-3-3 (1.6-1.3) · Away 4-2-4 (1.2-1.2) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6d rest Best-value line 1.5 (EV +0.2%)
#14
SERIEA
LAZ @ JUV
Sun 11:45 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV -1.1%
Model 88%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -4.5
No betting splits
+ Add Under 4.5
Details
Price Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.5 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 4-4-2 (1.3-1.0) · Away 7-1-2 (1.5-1.1) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.2d rest Best-value line 3.5 (EV -1.1%)
#15
SERIEA
LEC @ UDI
Sun 03:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.2%
Model 92%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -4.6
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details
Price Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -1.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 3-1-6 (1.3-1.5) · Away 5-5 (1.2-1.6) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 5.7d rest · Away 6.9d rest
#42
NCAAF
CIN @ WVU
Sat 09:00 AM
Under 78.5
Best total · book line Under 63.5
EV -0.3%
Model 83%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -4.6
Bets 70% · Money 63%
+ Add Under 78.5 + Add WVU +10.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread WVU +10.5 book WVU -1.5 75% · 82¢ · EV -9.2%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair). Cushion Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 61.5, now 63.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63.5 (Over -108 / Under -108). Form L10 Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 84.5 (EV +0.1%)
#16
LIGUE1
OLM @ ANG
Sun 06:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV -1.2%
Model 81%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -4.6
No betting splits
+ Add Under 4.5
Details
Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.2%, priced against you). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Form L10 Home 2-3-5 (1.0-1.8) · Away 4-1-5 (1.4-1.3) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.5) Rest Home 7.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest
#17
NFL
ARI @ LA
Sun 01:05 PM
Over 34.5
Best total · book line Over 51.5
EV -2.4%
Model 90%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -4.8
Bets 56% · Money 66%
+ Add Over 34.5 + Add LA +1.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread LA +1.5 book LA -12.5 84% · 88¢ · EV -5.3%
Sharp money +10
Price Model gives it 90%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 34.5 vs the book's 51.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 55.2 combined vs the book's 51.5, which supports this pick. Sharp money 66% of the money on 56% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 47.5, now 51.5. Form L10 Home 5-5 (30.3-25.6) · Away 1-9 (19.8-34.7) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +22.5) Rest Home 5.8d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Jeremiyah Love RB (Out) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 53.5 (EV -0.6%)
#18
BUNDESLIGA
SCF @ B04
Sun 06:30 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -1.3%
Model 86%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -5.2
No betting splits
+ Add Over 1.5
Details
Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.8 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 5-2-3 (2.3-1.6) · Away 6-2-2 (2.3-1.4) Head to head 1-1-0 (avg margin +1.0) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 6.9d rest
#5
NHL
PIT @ COL
Fri 06:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV -1.1%
Model 92%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -5.2
Bets 92% · Money 90%
+ Add Over 3.5
Details · 2 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick. Public side 92% of bets are on this side (money 90%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -125 / Under +111). Form L10 Home 7-3 (3.8-2.4) · Away 3-7 (3.3-3.8) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 2d rest · Away 3d rest Starters PIT: Arturs Silovs, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV% | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.879 SV% Injuries Home - · Away Nicolas Roy C (Out); Zachary L'Heureux LW (Out) Best-value line 9.5 (EV +28.5%)
#19
LALIGA
ALA @ CEL
Sun 07:15 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV -1.4%
Model 91%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -5.5
No betting splits
+ Add Under 4.5
Details
Price Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you). Cushion Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 2-6-2 (1.0-0.7) · Away 4-2-4 (1.4-1.0) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 8d rest Best-value line 5.5 (EV -1.3%)
#20
EPL
SUN @ BOU
Sun 06:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.2%
Model 93%
Price 94¢
Pays 1.06x
Score -5.5
Bets 93% · Money 92%
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 1 tag
Public side
Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 94¢ (EV -1.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.8 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Public side 93% of bets are on this side (money 92%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Form L10 Home 2-5-3 (1.3-1.5) · Away 3-3-4 (1.2-1.5) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 8d rest
#21
LALIGA
RSO @ MCF
Sun 09:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.4%
Model 94%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -5.5
No betting splits
+ Add Over 0.5
Details
Price Model gives it 94%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.9 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 0-4-4 (0.5-1.6) · Away 4-2-4 (1.6-2.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 8.9d rest · Away 7.1d rest
#43
NCAAF
OHIO @ SAC
Sat 07:00 PM
SAC +27.5
Best spread · book line SAC +15.5
EV -1.9%
Model 81%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -6.5
Bets 63% · Money 65%
+ Add SAC +27.5 + Add Over 32.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 32.5 book Over 47.5 82% · 89¢ · EV -8.6%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.9%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion SAC +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +13.5, now +15.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: SAC +14.5, vs +15.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 4-6 (23.5-26.9) · Away 7-3 (27.5-22.5) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.4d rest · Away 7.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +62.9%)
#22
BUNDESLIGA
TSG @ BMG
Sun 08:30 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -1.7%
Model 87%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -6.6
No betting splits
+ Add Over 1.5
Details
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.8 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 2-2-6 (1.4-2.2) · Away 4-1-5 (1.7-2.2) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin +0.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 8.1d rest Best-value line 0.5 (EV -0.9%)
#23
EPL
ARS @ NFO
Sun 08:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -1.8%
Model 93%
Price 94¢
Pays 1.06x
Score -7.4
Bets 93% · Money 93%
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 1 tag
Public side
Price Model gives it 93%; Kalshi charges 94¢ (EV -1.8%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Public side 93% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Form L10 Home 2-4-4 (1.2-1.4) · Away 9-1 (1.7-0.6) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -1.5) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 8.2d rest
#6
NCAAF
MEM @ TULN
Fri 04:30 PM
Over 37.5
Best total · book line Over 54.5
EV -3.1%
Model 85%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -7.9
Bets 60% · Money 69%
+ Add Over 37.5 + Add MEM +5.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread MEM +5.5 book MEM -7 76% · 82¢ · EV -8.9%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -3.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 37.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 54.5 (Over -109 / Under -107). Form L10 Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +6.0) Rest Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest
#44
EPL
IPS @ MCI
Sat 07:00 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -2.1%
Model 87%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -8.0
Bets 95% · Money 96%
+ Add Over 1.5
Details · 2 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick. Public side 95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.5 (Over +103 / Under -118). Form L10 Home 8-1-1 (2.4-0.8) · Away 3-3 (1.5-2.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 0.5 (EV -1.0%)
#45
NCAAF
FLA @ TEX
Sat 09:00 AM
FLA +23.5
Best spread · book line FLA +11.5
EV -2.2%
Model 78%
Price 79¢
Pays 1.25x
Score -8.1
Bets 64% · Money 65%
+ Add FLA +23.5 + Add Over 36.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 36.5 book Over 51.5 84% · 86¢ · EV -2.8%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion FLA +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +9.5, now +11.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: FLA +11.5. Form L10 Home 8-2 (32.5-23.8) · Away 5-5 (33.2-29.8) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -8.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -10.5 (EV +59.2%)
#24
NFL
NO @ NYG
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 46
EV -4.0%
Model 87%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -8.3
Bets 60% · Money 75%
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add NO +10.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread NO +10.5 book NO -1.5 80% · 83¢ · EV -4.4%
Sharp money +15
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -4.0%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 46: 15.5 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 46, which works against this pick. Sharp money 75% of the money on 60% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 44.5, now 46. Form L10 Home 5-1-4 (22.6-21.1) · Away 5-5 (24.2-23.9) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -12.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Theo Johnson TE (Out) Signals reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 24.5 (EV -3.1%)
#46
NCAAF
ARST @ USM
Sat 04:00 PM
Under 79.5
Best total · book line Under 62.5
EV -0.2%
Model 87%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -8.3
Bets 72% · Money 57%
+ Add Under 79.5 + Add USM +20.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread USM +20.5 book USM +6.5 81% · 82¢ · EV -2.9%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair). Cushion Under 79.5 vs the book's 62.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 57.4 combined vs the book's 62.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 56.5, now 62.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 62.5 (Over -104 / Under -112). Form L10 Home 3-7 (27.5-32.6) · Away 4-6 (27.3-27.3) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +6.0) Rest Home 11d rest · Away 9d rest Signals steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 43.5 (EV +9.1%)
#47
LALIGA
BAR @ BET
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV -2.1%
Model 92%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -8.4
No betting splits
+ Add Over 1.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.9 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 4 (Over -104 / Under -108), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-1-2 (1.7-1.3) · Away 9-1 (3.8-1.1) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -2.0) Rest Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 0.5 (EV -0.7%)
#48
LIGUE1
PSG @ STR
Sat 08:15 AM
Under 5.5
Best total · book line Under 3.5
EV -2.2%
Model 83%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -8.6
No betting splits
+ Add Under 5.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you). Cushion Under 5.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3.5 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3.5 (Over -110 / Under -102). Form L10 Home 4-2-4 (2.0-2.0) · Away 5-3-2 (1.7-1.2) Head to head 0-1-1 (avg margin -0.5) Rest Home 6.1d rest · Away 6.9d rest
#49
NCAAF
FAU @ ARMY
Sat 09:00 AM
Under 71.5
Best total · book line Under 54.5
EV -2.0%
Model 84%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -8.9
Bets 56% · Money 54%
+ Add Under 71.5 + Add ARMY +9.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread ARMY +9.5 book ARMY -2.5 76% · 79¢ · EV -5.1%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you). Cushion Under 71.5 vs the book's 54.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 55 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 59.5, now 54.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 54.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-4 (25.5-19.3) · Away 5-5 (33.0-32.1) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.8d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 74.5 (EV -0.5%)
#50
NCAAF
PSU @ MICH
Sat 12:30 PM
PSU +20.5
Best spread · book line PSU +6.5
EV -3.5%
Model 82%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -9.1
Bets 74% · Money 84%
+ Add PSU +20.5 + Add Over 27.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 27.5 book Over 42.5 83% · 86¢ · EV -4.7%
Sharp money +10 Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 82%; adjusted to 82% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion PSU +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points. Sharp money 84% of the money on 74% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: PSU +6.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (24.5-18.4) · Away 6-4 (31.2-19.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 14.1d rest · Away 6.8d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line -11.5 (EV +59.3%)
#51
NCAAF
LOU @ SYR
Sat 04:30 PM
SYR +27.5
Best spread · book line SYR +14.5
EV -2.3%
Model 79%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score -9.4
Bets 68% · Money 68%
+ Add SYR +27.5 + Add Under 71.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Under 71.5 book Under 55.5 84% · 85¢ · EV -2.7%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -2.3%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 80%; adjusted to 79% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion SYR +27.5 vs the book's +14.5: 13 extra points. Line move Opened +12.5, now +14.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: SYR +14.5. Form L10 Home 2-8 (21.9-33.0) · Away 4-6 (32.9-25.3) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest, road game #3 · Away 8d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +50.1%)
#52
NCAAF
AKR @ M-OH
Sat 12:30 PM
AKR +21.5
Best spread · book line AKR +9.5
EV -3.6%
Model 78%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score -9.6
Bets 39% · Money 49%
+ Add AKR +21.5 + Add Over 29.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 29.5 book Over 46.5 86% · 92¢ · EV -6.6%
Sharp money +10 Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -3.6%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion AKR +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 49% of the money on 39% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: AKR +9.5. Form L10 Home 5-5 (25.2-25.6) · Away 4-6 (24.0-27.7) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +13.0) Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line -13.5 (EV +68.8%)
#25
NFL
CAR @ PHI
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 21.5
Best total · book line Over 39
EV -2.7%
Model 91%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -9.7
Bets 69% · Money 71%
+ Add Over 21.5 + Add CAR +9.5
Details
Best spread CAR +9.5 book CAR -3.5 81% · 87¢ · EV -7.2%
Price Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 21.5 vs the book's 39: 17.5 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 42.7 combined vs the book's 39, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 43.5, now 39. Form L10 Home 5-5 (20.1-18.8) · Away 4-6 (22.5-24.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 13.7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Saquon Barkley RB (Out); Jalen Hurts QB (Out); A.J. Dillon RB (Out); Will Shipley RB (Out) Signals steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 51.5 (EV +10.9%)
#53
NCAAF
CHA @ TEM
Sat 10:00 AM
CHA +33.5
Best spread · book line CHA +21
EV -3.4%
Model 80%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -10.0
Bets 55% · Money 62%
+ Add CHA +33.5 + Add Over 29.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 29.5 book Over 46.5 87% · 93¢ · EV -7.1%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -3.4%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 81%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion CHA +33.5 vs the book's +21: 12.5 extra points. Line move Opened +23.5, now +21. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: CHA +21. Form L10 Home 2-8 (21.4-30.6) · Away 0-10 (12.8-39.1) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +35.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line +2.5 (EV +43.0%)
#1
NFL
WAS @ SF
Mon 05:15 PM
Over 35.5
Best total · book line Over 51.5
EV -2.2%
Model 88%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -10.0
Bets 64% · Money 62%
+ Add Over 35.5 + Add SF +4.5
Details
Best spread SF +4.5 book SF -7.5 81% · 89¢ · EV -9.3%
Price Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 35.5 vs the book's 51.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 50 combined vs the book's 51.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 50.5, now 51.5. Form L10 Home 9-1 (31.0-20.3) · Away 3-1-6 (20.9-27.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 8.2d rest · Away 8.3d rest Injuries Home - · Away Deebo Samuel WR (Out) Best-value line 29.5 (EV -1.8%)
#26
LALIGA
SEV @ RMA
Sun 12:00 PM
Under 5.5
Best total · book line Under 3.5
EV -2.6%
Model 86%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -10.3
No betting splits
+ Add Under 5.5
Details
Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you). Cushion Under 5.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Form L10 Home 8-2 (2.4-1.0) · Away 4-2-4 (1.3-1.4) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +1.5) Rest Home 8d rest · Away 6d rest Best-value line 0.5 (EV -0.7%)
#54
BUNDESLIGA
SCP @ SVW
Sat 06:30 AM
Under 5.5
Best total · book line Under 3.5
EV -2.7%
Model 89%
Price 91¢
Pays 1.09x
Score -10.8
No betting splits
+ Add Under 5.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you). Cushion Under 5.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.6 combined vs the book's 3.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 2.5, now 3.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 3 (Over -113 / Under +101), vs 3.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-3-4 (1.5-1.8) · Away 1-1-3 (0.6-1.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.8d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 4.5 (EV -2.2%)
#27
NFL
TEN @ IND
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 29.5
Best total · book line Over 44.5
EV -3.7%
Model 87%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -10.9
Bets 61% · Money 69%
+ Add Over 29.5 + Add IND +5.5
Details
Best spread IND +5.5 book IND -7 80% · 88¢ · EV -9.7%
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 29.5 vs the book's 44.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 48.2 combined vs the book's 44.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 47.5, now 44.5. Form L10 Home 2-8 (23.3-30.1) · Away 2-8 (17.2-25.9) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +22.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Ashton Dulin WR (Out) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 53.5 (EV -0.9%)
#55
NCAAF
OKST @ HOU
Sat 04:30 PM
Over 45.5
Best total · book line Over 62.5
EV -6.3%
Model 83%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -11.3
Bets 41% · Money 59%
+ Add Over 45.5 + Add OKST +16.5
Details · 3 tags
Best spread OKST +16.5 book OKST +4.5 76% · 79¢ · EV -5.6%
Reverse line move Sharp money +18 Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -6.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 45.5 vs the book's 62.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 53 combined vs the book's 62.5, which works against this pick. Sharp money 59% of the money on 41% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 57.5, now 62.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 63 (Over -101 / Under -115), vs 62.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (35.0-22.8) · Away 4-6 (24.5-23.8) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +22.0) Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 42.5 (EV -5.5%)
#56
NCAAF
MSST @ LSU
Sat 09:00 AM
MSST +30.5
Best spread · book line MSST +16.5
EV -1.6%
Model 83%
Price 83¢
Pays 1.19x
Score -11.3
Bets 76% · Money 66%
+ Add MSST +30.5 + Add Over 39.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 39.5 book Over 56.5 87% · 90¢ · EV -4.5%
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -1.6%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 83%; adjusted to 83% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion MSST +30.5 vs the book's +16.5: 14 extra points. Public side 76% of bets are on this side (money 66%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened +10.5, now +16.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: MSST +16, vs +16.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-4 (31.0-18.0) · Away 5-5 (33.8-34.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6.7d rest · Away 14d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -10.5 (EV +44.3%)
#28
NFL
NYJ @ NE
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 26.5
Best total · book line Over 43.5
EV -4.1%
Model 90%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -11.6
Bets 60% · Money 70%
+ Add Over 26.5 + Add NE +4.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread NE +4.5 book NE -7.5 82% · 87¢ · EV -6.4%
Sharp money +10
Price Model gives it 90%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -4.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 26.5 vs the book's 43.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 45 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick. Sharp money 70% of the money on 60% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened 42.5, now 43.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (28.2-18.8) · Away 2-8 (14.7-28.4) Head to head 2-0 (avg margin +22.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Breece Hall RB (Out); Adonai Mitchell WR (Out) Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 44.5 (EV -1.8%)
#57
NCAAF
ELO @ STAN
Sat 04:30 PM
Under 72.5
Best total · book line Under 56.5
EV -2.0%
Model 85%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -11.7
Bets 83% · Money 76%
+ Add Under 72.5
Details · 1 tag
Public side
Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you). Cushion Under 72.5 vs the book's 56.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 51.3 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick. Public side 83% of bets are on this side (money 76%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 52.5, now 56.5. Form L10 Home 3-7 (18.0-36.3) · Away 6-4 (28.6-19.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.2d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 36.5 (EV +32.9%)
#58
NCAAF
UVA @ SMU
Sat 09:00 AM
UVA +21.5
Best spread · book line UVA +9.5
EV -4.4%
Model 78%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score -13.4
Bets 56% · Money 64%
+ Add UVA +21.5 + Add Over 34.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 34.5 book Over 51.5 85% · 90¢ · EV -5.8%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -4.4%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion UVA +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +6.5, now +9.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: UVA +10, vs +9.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (32.9-20.5) · Away 6-4 (28.7-18.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 14d rest · Away 6.7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +49.7%)
#59
EPL
HUL @ FUL
Sat 07:00 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV -3.0%
Model 92%
Price 95¢
Pays 1.05x
Score -14.4
Bets 92% · Money 87%
+ Add Over 0.5
Details · 2 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 92%; Kalshi charges 95¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you). Cushion Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick. Public side 92% of bets are on this side (money 87%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 2.75 (Over +101 / Under -114), vs 2.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 1-3-6 (0.9-1.5) · Away 2-3-1 (1.3-1.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6d rest
#60
NCAAF
GAST @ JMU
Sat 09:00 AM
GAST +23.5
Best spread · book line GAST +10
EV -5.6%
Model 77%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -14.5
Bets 43% · Money 49%
+ Add GAST +23.5 + Add Under 73.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Under 73.5 book Under 57.5 84% · 86¢ · EV -3.4%
Reverse line move Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -5.6%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 77% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion GAST +23.5 vs the book's +10: 13.5 extra points. Line move Opened +12.5, now +10 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: GAST +10.5, vs +10 at other books. Form L10 Home 10-0 (42.3-14.4) · Away 4-6 (30.2-26.1) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +7.0) Rest Home 6.7d rest · Away 13.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -11.5 (EV +34.9%)
#61
NCAAF
ND @ BYU
Sat 04:30 PM
BYU +23.5
Best spread · book line BYU +10.5
EV -3.2%
Model 78%
Price 79¢
Pays 1.25x
Score -14.5
Bets 63% · Money 60%
+ Add BYU +23.5 + Add Over 29.5
Details · 1 tag
Best total Over 29.5 book Over 46.5 87% · 91¢ · EV -4.8%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -3.2%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 78%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion BYU +23.5 vs the book's +10.5: 13 extra points. Line move Opened +10, now +10.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: BYU +10.5. Form L10 Home 8-2 (29.8-17.8) · Away 10-0 (46.9-11.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.9d rest · Away 7.2d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -10.5 (EV +29.7%)
#62
NCAAF
TOL @ EMU
Sat 12:30 PM
TOL +5.5
Best spread · book line TOL -6.5
EV -6.5%
Model 77%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -14.7
Bets 39% · Money 52%
+ Add TOL +5.5
Details · 3 tags
Reverse line move Sharp money +13 Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -6.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 77%; adjusted to 77% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion TOL +5.5 vs the book's -6.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 52% of the money on 39% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened -5.5, now -6.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: TOL -6.5. Form L10 Home 6-4 (23.0-23.4) · Away 8-2 (34.5-16.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -14.5 (EV -0.2%)
#63
NCAAF
OSU @ IU
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 34.5
Best total · book line Over 50.5
EV -3.3%
Model 83%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -14.7
Bets 60% · Money 57%
+ Add Over 34.5 + Add OSU +9.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread OSU +9.5 book OSU -3 76% · 81¢ · EV -7.1%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -3.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 34.5 vs the book's 50.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 49.3 combined vs the book's 50.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 48.5, now 50.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 50.5 (Over -103 / Under -113). Form L10 Home 10-0 (36.8-11.5) · Away 8-2 (38.3-12.0) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +3.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest Best-value line 51.5 (EV -2.1%)
#64
NCAAF
UTAH @ COLO
Sat 07:15 PM
Over 32.5
Best total · book line Over 49.5
EV -3.6%
Model 86%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -15.3
Bets 74% · Money 72%
+ Add Over 32.5 + Add UTAH -2.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread UTAH -2.5 book UTAH -14.5 78% · 83¢ · EV -7.3%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -3.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 32.5 vs the book's 49.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 56.4 combined vs the book's 49.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 50.5, now 49.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49 (Over -110 / Under -106), vs 49.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 2-8 (17.0-32.7) · Away 10-0 (44.9-18.2) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -46.0) Rest Home 14.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 71.5 (EV +6.8%)
#65
NCAAF
NEB @ ORE
Sat 08:00 PM
NEB +20.5
Best spread · book line NEB +6.5
EV -4.1%
Model 80%
Price 82¢
Pays 1.20x
Score -15.3
Bets 76% · Money 78%
+ Add NEB +20.5 + Add Over 34.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 34.5 book Over 51.5 85% · 89¢ · EV -4.9%
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -4.1%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 80%; adjusted to 80% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion NEB +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points. Public side 76% of bets are on this side (money 78%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened +21.5, now +6.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: NEB +7, vs +6.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 8-2 (35.4-18.7) · Away 6-4 (30.6-21.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.3d rest · Away 7.5d rest Signals reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line -11.5 (EV +57.0%)
#66
NCAAF
BAMA @ TENN
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 35.5
Best total · book line Over 50.5
EV -4.4%
Model 84%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -15.7
Bets 61% · Money 65%
+ Add Over 35.5 + Add BAMA +4.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread BAMA +4.5 book BAMA -7.5 74% · 83¢ · EV -11.4%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -4.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 35.5 vs the book's 50.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 54.7 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 56.5, now 50.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 51 (Over -107 / Under -109), vs 50.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (33.2-19.1) · Away 7-3 (37.6-19.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -17.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 59.5 (EV +3.7%)
#67
NCAAF
NW @ MSU
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 32.5
Best total · book line Over 49.5
EV -4.6%
Model 86%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -16.0
Bets 72% · Money 77%
+ Add Over 32.5 + Add NW +5.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread NW +5.5 book NW -7 76% · 85¢ · EV -11.1%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 32.5 vs the book's 49.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 49 combined vs the book's 49.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 48.5, now 49.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49.5 (Over -110 / Under -106). Form L10 Home 3-7 (21.3-25.3) · Away 5-5 (28.8-22.6) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 51.5 (EV -1.9%)
#29
NFL
BAL @ CLE
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 23.5
Best total · book line Over 39.5
EV -3.5%
Model 89%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -16.1
Bets 79% · Money 75%
+ Add Over 23.5 + Add BAL +9.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread BAL +9.5 book BAL -3 83% · 87¢ · EV -6.0%
Public side
Price Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you). Cushion Over 23.5 vs the book's 39.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 45.2 combined vs the book's 39.5, which supports this pick. Public side 79% of bets are on this side (money 75%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 44.5, now 39.5. Form L10 Home 5-5 (17.8-22.1) · Away 6-4 (28.1-22.4) Head to head 0-2 (avg margin -15.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 6.7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Lamar Jackson QB (Out); Raheim Sanders RB (Out); Matthew Hibner TE (Out) Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 44.5 (EV +2.4%)
#68
NCAAF
TCU @ BAY
Sat 04:00 PM
TCU +17.5
Best spread · book line TCU +5.5
EV -6.4%
Model 77%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -16.1
Bets 39% · Money 48%
+ Add TCU +17.5 + Add Over 31.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 31.5 book Over 48.5 85% · 89¢ · EV -5.0%
Reverse line move Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -6.4%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 77%; adjusted to 77% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion TCU +17.5 vs the book's +5.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +6.5, now +5.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: TCU +6, vs +5.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 5-5 (29.3-24.2) · Away 5-5 (24.2-18.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -6.0) Rest Home 13.9d rest · Away 14d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line -14.5 (EV +53.3%)
#69
NCAAF
ARK @ VAN
Sat 04:00 PM
Over 34.5
Best total · book line Over 49.5
EV -3.5%
Model 85%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -16.6
Bets 72% · Money 67%
+ Add Over 34.5 + Add VAN +5.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread VAN +5.5 book VAN -6.5 76% · 81¢ · EV -7.9%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you). Cushion Over 34.5 vs the book's 49.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 56.9 combined vs the book's 49.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 48.5, now 49.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 50.5 (Over -102 / Under -114), vs 49.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-4 (31.0-29.0) · Away 2-8 (22.7-31.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest Best-value line 61.5 (EV +4.4%)
#70
NCAAF
ASU @ TTU
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 34.5
Best total · book line Over 50.5
EV -4.8%
Model 84%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -16.8
Bets 82% · Money 87%
+ Add Over 34.5
Details · 2 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -4.8%, priced against you). Cushion Over 34.5 vs the book's 50.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 51.2 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick. Public side 82% of bets are on this side (money 87%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 50 (Over -109 / Under -107), vs 50.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 10-0 (37.7-12.4) · Away 6-4 (27.7-24.5) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -4.0) Rest Home 13.8d rest · Away 6.7d rest Best-value line 55.5 (EV +3.4%)
#30
NFL
PIT @ TB
Sun 10:00 AM
PIT +9.5
Best spread · book line PIT -2.5
EV -4.8%
Model 81%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -16.9
Bets 70% · Money 75%
+ Add PIT +9.5 + Add Over 22.5
Details
Best total Over 22.5 book Over 39 90% · 94¢ · EV -5.1%
Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -4.8%, priced against you). Cushion PIT +9.5 vs the book's -2.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened +1.5, now -2.5. Form L10 Home 2-8 (20.1-22.2) · Away 7-3 (22.7-20.7) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 9.7d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Ben Skowronek WR (Out); Roman Wilson WR (Out) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -10.5 (EV +16.7%)
#71
NCAAF
HAMP @ SHU
Sat 09:00 AM
HAMP +32.5
Best spread · book line HAMP +13.5
EV -4.3%
Model 88%
Price 91¢
Pays 1.09x
Score -17.3
No betting splits
+ Add HAMP +32.5 + Add Over 24.5
Details
Best total Over 24.5 book Over 45.5 91% · 95¢ · EV -4.3%
Price Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -4.3%, priced against you). Cushion HAMP +32.5 vs the book's +13.5: 19 extra points. Form L10 Home 5-5 (24.9-25.0) · Away 1-9 (14.3-36.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 13.9d rest Best-value line -7.5 (EV +20.3%)
#72
NCAAF
WF @ CAL
Sat 07:30 PM
Over 36.5
Best total · book line Over 53.5
EV -4.6%
Model 86%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -17.8
Bets 59% · Money 60%
+ Add Over 36.5 + Add WF +2.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread WF +2.5 book WF -10 76% · 81¢ · EV -7.0%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -4.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 36.5 vs the book's 53.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 54.8 combined vs the book's 53.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 54.5, now 53.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 53.5 (Over -107 / Under -109). Form L10 Home 5-5 (25.8-27.6) · Away 8-2 (34.9-21.3) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.3d rest · Away 7.4d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 55.5 (EV -1.7%)
#73
NCAAF
AUB @ UGA
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 32.5
Best total · book line Over 49.5
EV -4.7%
Model 86%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -17.9
Bets 70% · Money 72%
+ Add Over 32.5 + Add UGA -7.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread UGA -7.5 book UGA -19.5 74% · 78¢ · EV -6.1%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -4.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 32.5 vs the book's 49.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 51.2 combined vs the book's 49.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 54.5, now 49.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49.5 (Over -114 / Under -103). Form L10 Home 10-0 (39.1-11.3) · Away 5-5 (29.0-23.0) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +10.0) Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 14d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 65.5 (EV +5.0%)
#31
NFL
CHI @ ATL
Sun 10:00 AM
Over 35.5
Best total · book line Over 51.5
EV -4.2%
Model 87%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -18.0
Bets 70% · Money 68%
+ Add Over 35.5 + Add ATL +13.5
Details
Best spread ATL +13.5 book ATL +1.5 80% · 85¢ · EV -6.3%
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -4.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 35.5 vs the book's 51.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 46.3 combined vs the book's 51.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 47.5, now 51.5. Form L10 Home 6-4 (22.9-24.7) · Away 5-5 (24.7-20.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 6.7d rest · Away 7d rest Injuries Home - · Away Kyle Monangai RB (Out) Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 26.5 (EV -0.9%)
#74
NCAAF
UNLV @ AFA
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 47.5
EV -4.9%
Model 86%
Price 90¢
Pays 1.10x
Score -18.5
Bets 71% · Money 73%
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add UNLV +13.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread UNLV +13.5 book UNLV +1.5 77% · 84¢ · EV -9.2%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -4.9%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 47.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 46.1 combined vs the book's 47.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 48.5, now 47.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -107 / Under -109), vs 47.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 6-4 (24.8-19.0) · Away 7-3 (26.8-21.6) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -3.0) Rest Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 27.5 (EV -4.7%)
#7
NCAAF
COLU @ PENN
Fri 04:00 PM
Under 62.5
Best total · book line Under 47.5
EV -4.7%
Model 82%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -18.8
No betting splits
+ Add Under 62.5 + Add PENN +5.5
Details
Best spread PENN +5.5 book PENN -6.5 75% · 78¢ · EV -5.1%
Price Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -4.7%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 82%; adjusted to 82% from the track record of NCAAF Unders so far. Cushion Under 62.5 vs the book's 47.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 47.6 combined vs the book's 47.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 46.5, now 47.5. Form L10 Home 5-5 (21.4-22.8) · Away 4-6 (21.4-29.7) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +14.0) Rest Home 6.2d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 26.5 (EV +21.3%)
#75
NCAAF
UK @ OU
Sat 04:30 PM
UK +20.5
Best spread · book line UK +6.5
EV -4.5%
Model 81%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -20.8
Bets 79% · Money 73%
+ Add UK +20.5 + Add Over 28.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 28.5 book Over 43.5 84% · 88¢ · EV -5.8%
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -4.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 82%; adjusted to 81% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion UK +20.5 vs the book's +6.5: 14 extra points. Public side 79% of bets are on this side (money 73%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: UK +6.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (23.1-18.9) · Away 7-3 (30.5-27.1) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line -11.5 (EV +52.2%)
#76
NCAAF
TLSA @ RICE
Sat 01:30 PM
RICE +16.5
Best spread · book line RICE +4.5
EV -7.0%
Model 76%
Price 81¢
Pays 1.22x
Score -21.4
Bets 46% · Money 59%
+ Add RICE +16.5 + Add Over 29.5
Details · 2 tags
Best total Over 29.5 book Over 46.5 86% · 92¢ · EV -6.8%
Sharp money +13 Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 76%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -7.0%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 77%; adjusted to 76% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion RICE +16.5 vs the book's +4.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 59% of the money on 46% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +3, now +4.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: RICE +3.5, vs +4.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 2-8 (16.7-32.8) · Away 5-5 (26.7-25.0) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line -14.5 (EV +28.7%)
#77
NCAAF
UNC @ DUKE
Sat 12:30 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 46.5
EV -5.4%
Model 85%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -22.0
Bets 77% · Money 76%
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add UNC +16.5
Details · 2 tags
Best spread UNC +16.5 book UNC +3 78% · 84¢ · EV -8.1%
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -5.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 46.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 49.5 combined vs the book's 46.5, which supports this pick. Public side 77% of bets are on this side (money 76%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 54.5, now 46.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 47 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 46.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (32.9-22.0) · Away 5-5 (22.0-22.2) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +7.0) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 60.5 (EV -0.8%)
#78
NCAAF
MIZ @ MISS
Sat 12:30 PM
MISS +6.5
Best spread · book line MISS -5.5
EV -7.5%
Model 75%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score -23.0
Bets 44% · Money 58%
+ Add MISS +6.5
Details · 2 tags
Sharp money +14 Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -7.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion MISS +6.5 vs the book's -5.5: 12 extra points. Sharp money 58% of the money on 44% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened -7.5, now -5.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: MISS -5.5. Form L10 Home 9-1 (37.9-22.3) · Away 7-3 (31.8-20.5) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line -7.5 (EV +3.4%)
#79
NCAAF
TROY @ UL
Sat 02:00 PM
TROY +16.5
Best spread · book line TROY +3
EV -8.8%
Model 78%
Price 85¢
Pays 1.16x
Score -23.5
Bets 47% · Money 60%
+ Add TROY +16.5 + Add Over 34.5
Details · 3 tags
Best total Over 34.5 book Over 49.5 82% · 87¢ · EV -6.4%
Reverse line move Sharp money +13 Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -8.8%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 79%; adjusted to 78% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion TROY +16.5 vs the book's +3: 13.5 extra points. Sharp money 60% of the money on 47% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side. Line move Opened +3.5, now +3 against most of the bets (reverse line move). Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: TROY +3. Form L10 Home 8-2 (31.4-24.7) · Away 5-5 (22.3-24.4) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -12.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 10.9d rest Best-value line -17.5 (EV +36.0%)
#80
NCAAF
FRES @ SDSU
Sat 07:30 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 45.5
EV -6.0%
Model 83%
Price 87¢
Pays 1.14x
Score -24.0
Bets 74% · Money 74%
+ Add Over 30.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -6.0%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 46.8 combined vs the book's 45.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 44.5, now 45.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 46 (Over -101 / Under -115), vs 45.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 4-6 (20.2-28.1) · Away 7-3 (28.2-17.2) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +23.0) Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 66.5 (EV -1.4%)
#81
NCAAF
FSU @ MIA
Sat 04:00 PM
Over 39.5
Best total · book line Over 56.5
EV -6.1%
Model 84%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -24.4
Bets 58% · Money 58%
+ Add Over 39.5 + Add MIA -7.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread MIA -7.5 book MIA -20.5 75% · 80¢ · EV -7.0%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -6.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 39.5 vs the book's 56.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 53.5, now 56.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 56 (Over -111 / Under -105), vs 56.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 9-1 (41.9-11.6) · Away 4-6 (26.2-25.1) Head to head 1-0 (avg margin +6.0) Rest Home 14d rest · Away 8d rest Best-value line 36.5 (EV -4.5%)
#82
NCAAF
SJSU @ UTEP
Sat 06:00 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 45.5
EV -6.3%
Model 84%
Price 89¢
Pays 1.11x
Score -25.6
Bets 84% · Money 83%
+ Add Over 30.5
Details · 2 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -6.3%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 53.2 combined vs the book's 45.5, which supports this pick. Public side 84% of bets are on this side (money 83%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 52.5, now 45.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 45.5 (Over -107 / Under -109). Form L10 Home 1-9 (20.8-40.0) · Away 3-7 (16.9-28.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.1d rest · Away 8d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 51.5 (EV +2.7%)
#83
NCAAF
UNM @ HAW
Sat 07:30 PM
Over 27.5
Best total · book line Over 44.5
EV -7.2%
Model 87%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -25.8
Bets 81% · Money 87%
+ Add Over 27.5
Details · 2 tags
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -7.2%, priced against you). Cushion Over 27.5 vs the book's 44.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 47.8 combined vs the book's 44.5, which supports this pick. Public side 81% of bets are on this side (money 87%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 48.5, now 44.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 44.5 (Over -114 / Under -102). Form L10 Home 3-7 (21.3-25.0) · Away 9-1 (35.3-13.9) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 14.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 63.5 (EV +20.3%)
#84
NCAAF
PITT @ BC
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 25.5
Best total · book line Over 42.5
EV -6.6%
Model 87%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -26.6
Bets 82% · Money 82%
+ Add Over 25.5 + Add PITT +5.5
Details · 2 tags
Best spread PITT +5.5 book PITT -6.5 76% · 82¢ · EV -8.0%
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -6.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 25.5 vs the book's 42.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 50.1 combined vs the book's 42.5, which supports this pick. Public side 82% of bets are on this side (money 82%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 47.5, now 42.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -105 / Under -111), vs 42.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-7 (21.0-27.3) · Away 7-3 (30.8-21.1) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -41.0) Rest Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 64.5 (EV +13.9%)
#85
NCAAF
BALL @ BGSU
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 47.5
EV -7.6%
Model 85%
Price 91¢
Pays 1.09x
Score -27.6
Bets 76% · Money 82%
+ Add Over 30.5 + Add BGSU +5.5
Details · 2 tags
Best spread BGSU +5.5 book BGSU -6.5 76% · 82¢ · EV -9.0%
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -7.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 47.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 48.3 combined vs the book's 47.5, which supports this pick. Public side 76% of bets are on this side (money 82%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 44.5, now 47.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 46.5 (Over -110 / Under -106), vs 47.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 3-7 (18.0-26.3) · Away 2-8 (16.9-35.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 47.5 (EV -3.1%)
#86
NCAAF
KENT @ USF
Sat 04:00 PM
Over 30.5
Best total · book line Over 45.5
EV -5.4%
Model 84%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -28.2
Bets 73% · Money 60%
+ Add Over 30.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -5.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 30.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 51.6 combined vs the book's 45.5, which supports this pick. Line move Opened 49.5, now 45.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 45 (Over -115 / Under -102), vs 45.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 7-3 (35.0-18.9) · Away 4-6 (18.8-30.6) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 9d rest · Away 7.1d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move Best-value line 66.5 (EV +22.3%)
#87
NCAAF
WIS @ UCLA
Sat 04:30 PM
Over 28.5
Best total · book line Over 43.5
EV -7.4%
Model 82%
Price 88¢
Pays 1.13x
Score -32.1
Bets 85% · Money 80%
+ Add Over 28.5 + Add UCLA +9.5
Details · 2 tags
Best spread UCLA +9.5 book UCLA -2.5 74% · 82¢ · EV -10.9%
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -7.4%, priced against you). Cushion Over 28.5 vs the book's 43.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 47.3 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick. Public side 85% of bets are on this side (money 80%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 49.5, now 43.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -105 / Under -112), vs 43.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 5-5 (25.7-29.9) · Away 6-4 (21.9-17.2) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7.2d rest · Away 14.3d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam Best-value line 45.5 (EV +1.6%)
#88
NCAAF
NEV @ NDSU
Sat 04:00 PM
Over 26.5
Best total · book line Over 42.5
EV -9.1%
Model 85%
Price 93¢
Pays 1.07x
Score -35.5
Bets 87% · Money 89%
+ Add Over 26.5 + Add NDSU -2.5
Details · 2 tags
Best spread NDSU -2.5 book NDSU -14.5 75% · 84¢ · EV -11.9%
Public side Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 93¢ (EV -9.1%, priced against you). Cushion Over 26.5 vs the book's 42.5: 16 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 46.8 combined vs the book's 42.5, which supports this pick. Public side 87% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse. Line move Opened 45.5, now 42.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -103 / Under -114), vs 42.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 8-2 (32.8-12.4) · Away 4-6 (24.1-24.4) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest Signals reverse_line_move Best-value line 62.5 (EV +16.9%)
#89
NCAAF
CCH @ CLEM
Sat 09:00 AM
Over 42.5
Best total · book line Over 57.5
EV -9.7%
Model 78%
Price 86¢
Pays 1.15x
Score -35.6
Bets 51% · Money 57%
+ Add Over 42.5 + Add CLEM -27.5
Details
Best spread CLEM -27.5 book CLEM -42.5 69% · 88¢ · EV -22.4%
Price Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -9.6%, priced against you). Cushion Over 42.5 vs the book's 57.5: 15 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 44.7 combined vs the book's 57.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 58.5, now 57.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (25.9-22.8) · Away 6-4 (22.8-17.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 13.7d rest · Away 7d rest Best-value line 78.5 (EV -3.4%)
#90
NCAAF
WMU @ CMU
Sat 10:30 AM
Over 26.5
Best total · book line Over 43.5
EV -8.7%
Model 84%
Price 92¢
Pays 1.08x
Score -36.3
Bets 74% · Money 71%
+ Add Over 26.5 + Add WMU +5.5
Details · 1 tag
Best spread WMU +5.5 book WMU -7 77% · 84¢ · EV -9.5%
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 92¢ (EV -8.7%, priced against you). Cushion Over 26.5 vs the book's 43.5: 17 points of room. Recent scoring These teams' last 10 games average about 43 combined vs the book's 43.5, which works against this pick. Line move Opened 47.5, now 43.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 43 (Over -106 / Under -110), vs 43.5 at other books. Form L10 Home 5-5 (19.2-23.8) · Away 8-2 (26.0-17.0) Head to head 0-1 (avg margin -3.0) Rest Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest Signals reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move Best-value line 65.5 (EV +3.8%)
#91
NCAAF
NAVY @ UTSA
Sat 05:00 PM
UTSA +5.5
Best spread · book line UTSA -6.5
EV -11.5%
Model 75%
Price 84¢
Pays 1.18x
Score -43.5
Bets 71% · Money 76%
+ Add UTSA +5.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 75%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -11.5%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 76%; adjusted to 75% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion UTSA +5.5 vs the book's -6.5: 12 extra points. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: UTSA -6.5. Form L10 Home 7-3 (32.1-26.8) · Away 5-5 (24.8-26.8) Head to head no recent meetings Rest Home 9d rest · Away 7.2d rest Best-value line -27.5 (EV -1.9%)
#92
NCAAF
WSU @ ORST
Sat 03:00 PM
ORST -6.5
Best spread · book line ORST -18.5
EV -11.9%
Model 71%
Price 80¢
Pays 1.23x
Score -48.5
Bets 68% · Money 66%
+ Add ORST -6.5
Details · 1 tag
Pinnacle-based
Price Model gives it 71%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -11.9%, priced against you). Learned Raw model said 72%; adjusted to 71% from the track record of NCAAF spreads so far. Cushion ORST -6.5 vs the book's -18.5: 12 extra points. Line move Opened -13.5, now -18.5. Sharp line Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: ORST -18.5. Form L10 Home 5-5 (30.0-22.3) · Away 3-7 (19.8-18.7) Head to head 1-1 (avg margin -10.5) Rest Home 7d rest · Away 7.9d rest Best-value line +13.5 (EV -1.9%)
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