Line Tracker

Updated Thu Oct 15, 3:36 PM PT · History →
Games today184 with positive EV · 83 this week
Pick record0-10% at Kalshi lines
Units-1.001 unit = 1 stake

Target parlays

The combination of Kalshi legs most likely to reach each payout. Heavy-favorite moneylines are included when they help.

All sports: full day · Today

🔒 Locked at 01:44 PM PT. These stay the same all day; legs that have started are marked.

2x5-leg parlay EV+3.4%
  • Under 8.5 NHL · NYI @ OTT87¢ · 89%
  • TOR +18.5 NBA · TOR @ NYK86¢ · 88%
  • Under 8.5 NHL · PHI @ DET85¢ · 86%
  • Over 3.5 NHL · SJ @ NSH88¢ · 89%
  • HOU +16.5 NBA · OKC @ HOU85¢ · 87%
Pays2.00x
Model hits52%
$10 returns$20.03
Why these bets

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies
NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -118 / Under +105).
Goalies
PHI backup goalie; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
PHI: Joseph Woll, confirmed, backup, 0.914 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%

Over 3.5 · SJ @ NSH

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side
95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over +103 / Under -116).
Form L10
Home 3-7 (2.5-3.2) · Away 5-5 (3.0-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 1.9d rest
Starters
SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.896 SV% | NSH: Juuse Saros, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.897 SV%

HOU +16.5 · OKC @ HOU

Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.9%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
HOU +16.5 vs the book's +3.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
69% of the money on 51% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +3.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head
1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a
Signals
steam
3x7-leg parlay EV+4.3%
  • Under 8.5 NHL · NYI @ OTT87¢ · 89%
  • TOR +18.5 NBA · TOR @ NYK86¢ · 88%
  • Under 8.5 NHL · PHI @ DET85¢ · 86%
  • Over 3.5 NHL · SJ @ NSH88¢ · 89%
  • Under 84.5 NCAAF · CSU @ TXST79¢ · 82%
  • Under 11.5 MLB · MIL @ LAD81¢ · 81%
  • HOU +16.5 NBA · OKC @ HOU85¢ · 87%
Pays3.05x
Model hits34%
$10 returns$30.45
Why these bets

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies
NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -118 / Under +105).
Goalies
PHI backup goalie; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
PHI: Joseph Woll, confirmed, backup, 0.914 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%

Over 3.5 · SJ @ NSH

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side
95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over +103 / Under -116).
Form L10
Home 3-7 (2.5-3.2) · Away 5-5 (3.0-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 1.9d rest
Starters
SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.896 SV% | NSH: Juuse Saros, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.897 SV%

Under 84.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price
Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV +2.2%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 84.5 vs the book's 69.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 64.9 combined vs the book's 69.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 63.5, now 69.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 70.5 (Over +101 / Under -118), vs 69.5 at other books.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals
steam, reverse_line_move

Under 11.5 · MIL @ LAD

Price
Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 11.5 vs the book's 8: 3.5 runs of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 8, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 7.5, now 8.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 8 (Over -102 / Under -111).
Form L10
Home 6-4 (3.2-2.7) · Away 9-1 (4.5-2.7)
Head to head
3-13 (avg margin -1.3)
Rest
Home 1d rest · Away 1d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move

HOU +16.5 · OKC @ HOU

Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.9%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
HOU +16.5 vs the book's +3.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
69% of the money on 51% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +3.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head
1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a
Signals
steam
4x7-leg parlay EV+3.1%
  • Under 8.5 NHL · NYI @ OTT87¢ · 89%
  • TOR +18.5 NBA · TOR @ NYK86¢ · 88%
  • Under 8.5 NHL · PHI @ DET85¢ · 86%
  • Over 3.5 NHL · SJ @ NSH88¢ · 89%
  • Under 84.5 NCAAF · CSU @ TXST79¢ · 82%
  • OKC ML NBA · OKC @ HOU58¢ · 59%
  • Over 3.5 NHL · CGY @ VGK88¢ · 88%
Pays4.05x
Model hits25%
$10 returns$40.52
Why these bets

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies
NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -118 / Under +105).
Goalies
PHI backup goalie; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
PHI: Joseph Woll, confirmed, backup, 0.914 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%

Over 3.5 · SJ @ NSH

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side
95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over +103 / Under -116).
Form L10
Home 3-7 (2.5-3.2) · Away 5-5 (3.0-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 1.9d rest
Starters
SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.896 SV% | NSH: Juuse Saros, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.897 SV%

Under 84.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price
Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV +2.2%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 84.5 vs the book's 69.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 64.9 combined vs the book's 69.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 63.5, now 69.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 70.5 (Over +101 / Under -118), vs 69.5 at other books.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals
steam, reverse_line_move

OKC ML · OKC @ HOU

Price
Model gives it 59%; Kalshi charges 58¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you).
Public side
75% of bets are on this side (money 51%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Favorite
The betting market makes OKC about 59% to win.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head
1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a
Signals
steam

Over 3.5 · CGY @ VGK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.5%, about fair).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side
98% of bets are on this side (money 99%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -118 / Under +105), vs 6.5 at other books.
Form L10
Home 8-2 (4.0-2.3) · Away 3-7 (2.1-3.8)
Head to head
3-1 (avg margin +1.8)
Rest
Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
CGY: Dustin Wolf, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.839 SV% | VGK: Carter Hart, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.906 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Parker Wotherspoon D (Out)

Games, best to worst

#1 NCAAF CIT @ TA&M Sat 10:00 AM
CIT +57.5
Best spread · book line CIT +45.5
EV+5.0%
Model85%
Price80¢
Pays1.23x
Score20.0
Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 56.585% · 89¢ · EV -5.1%
Bets
0%
Money
0%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV +5.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
CIT +57.5 vs the book's +45.5: 12 extra points.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (29.9-19.4) · Away 3-7 (21.0-31.8)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line
+24.5 (EV +127.4%)
#2 NCAAF CCH @ CLEM Sat 09:00 AM
CCH +54.5
Best spread · book line CCH +43
EV+2.8%
Model86%
Price83¢
Pays1.19x
Score11.3
Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 57.585% · 88¢ · EV -3.7%
Bets
27%
Money
17%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV +2.8%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
CCH +54.5 vs the book's +43: 11.5 extra points.
Line move
Opened +43.5, now +43 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 7-3 (25.9-22.8) · Away 6-4 (22.8-17.8)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 13.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
+27.5 (EV +73.9%)
#1 NBA TOR @ NYK Thu 04:30 PM
TOR +18.5
Best spread · book line TOR +5.5
EV+2.1%
Model88%
Price85¢
Pays1.16x
Score11.1
Best totalOver 211.5book Over 226.579% · 84¢ · EV -6.9%
Bets
51%
Money
56%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a
Best-value line
+4.5 (EV +6.0%)
#2 NBA OKC @ HOU Thu 05:30 PM
HOU +16.5
Best spread · book line HOU +3.5
EV-0.2%
Model87%
Price86¢
Pays1.15x
Score8.2
Best totalOver 209.5book Over 225.582% · 86¢ · EV -5.5%
Bets
51%
Money
69%
Sharp money +18
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
HOU +16.5 vs the book's +3.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
69% of the money on 51% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +3.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head
1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a
Signals
steam
Best-value line
+20.5 (EV +3.0%)
#3 NHL BUF @ TOR Thu 04:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV-0.3%
Model91%
Price91¢
Pays1.09x
Score7.0
Bets
79%
Money
95%
Sharp money +16Public sidePinnacle-basedBUF goalie unconfirmedTOR backup goalieTOR goalie unconfirmed
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.7 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp money
95% of the money on 79% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -127 / Under +113).
Goalies
BUF goalie unconfirmed; TOR backup goalie; TOR goalie unconfirmed. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (3.2-3.8) · Away 5-5 (3.2-3.1)
Head to head
1-3 (avg margin -1.2)
Rest
Home 1.9d rest, road game #3 · Away 2d rest
Starters
BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, expected, #1 goalie, 0.850 SV% | TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky, expected, backup, 0.907 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Matt Grzelcyk D (Out)
Best-value line
9.5 (EV +16.4%)
#3 NCAAF WSU @ ORST Sat 03:00 PM
WSU +30.5
Best spread · book line WSU +18.5
EV+0.6%
Model81%
Price79¢
Pays1.25x
Score7.0
Best totalUnder 67.5book Under 52.584% · 84¢ · EV -0.6%
Bets
30%
Money
39%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
WSU +30.5 vs the book's +18.5: 12 extra points.
Line move
Opened +13.5, now +18.5.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (30.0-22.3) · Away 3-7 (19.8-18.7)
Head to head
1-1 (avg margin -10.5)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7.9d rest
Best-value line
-4.5 (EV +63.6%)
#4 NCAAF CSU @ TXST Thu 05:00 PM
CSU +27.5
Best spread · book line CSU +14.5
EV+0.3%
Model79%
Price78¢
Pays1.26x
Score6.8
Best totalOver 54.5book Over 69.582% · 84¢ · EV -3.9%
Bets
53%
Money
64%
Sharp money +11Pinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
CSU +27.5 vs the book's +14.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
64% of the money on 53% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +9.5, now +14.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: CSU +15, vs +14.5 at other books.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals
steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-9.5 (EV +45.8%)
#1 NFL ARI @ LA Sun 01:05 PM
ARI +23.5
Best spread · book line ARI +12.5
EV-1.3%
Model80%
Price80¢
Pays1.23x
Score5.9
Best totalOver 37.5book Over 51.586% · 87¢ · EV -1.9%
Bets
35%
Money
47%
Reverse line moveSharp money +12
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you).
Cushion
ARI +23.5 vs the book's +12.5: 11 extra points.
Sharp money
47% of the money on 35% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +13.5, now +12.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 5-5 (30.3-25.6) · Away 1-9 (19.8-34.7)
Head to head
2-0 (avg margin +22.5)
Rest
Home 5.8d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-3.5 (EV +45.6%)
#4 NCAAF NIU @ WYO Sat 12:30 PM
NIU +20.5
Best spread · book line NIU +7.5
EV-1.1%
Model80%
Price80¢
Pays1.23x
Score5.1
Best totalUnder 55.5book Under 40.583% · 86¢ · EV -4.9%
Bets
37%
Money
56%
Sharp money +19
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -1.1%, priced against you).
Cushion
NIU +20.5 vs the book's +7.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
56% of the money on 37% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (11.1-21.1) · Away 2-8 (18.1-29.5)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7.8d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Best-value line
-14.5 (EV +90.9%)
#5 NHL NYI @ OTT Thu 04:00 PM
Under 8.5
Best total · book line Under 5.5
EV+1.0%
Model89%
Price87¢
Pays1.14x
Score4.1
Bets
4%
Money
4%
Pinnacle-basedNYI backup goalie
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies
NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)
Best-value line
2.5 (EV +94.7%)
#5 NCAAF CHA @ TEM Sat 10:00 AM
CHA +33.5
Best spread · book line CHA +21
EV-2.7%
Model81%
Price82¢
Pays1.20x
Score3.8
Best totalUnder 62.5book Under 46.582% · 88¢ · EV -7.2%
Bets
48%
Money
67%
Reverse line moveSharp money +19
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you).
Cushion
CHA +33.5 vs the book's +21: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money
67% of the money on 48% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +23.5, now +21 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 2-8 (21.4-30.6) · Away 0-10 (12.8-39.1)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +35.0)
Rest
Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals
steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
+2.5 (EV +47.4%)
#1 NCAAF WASH @ PUR Fri 05:00 PM
WASH +16.5
Best spread · book line WASH +3.5
EV-0.4%
Model82%
Price81¢
Pays1.22x
Score3.6
Best totalUnder 65.5book Under 50.582% · 85¢ · EV -4.4%
Bets
59%
Money
69%
Sharp money +10Pinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -0.4%, about fair).
Cushion
WASH +16.5 vs the book's +3.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
69% of the money on 59% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +1.5, now +3.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: WASH +3.5.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (23.5-34.8) · Away 5-5 (27.8-19.9)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -36.0)
Rest
Home 6d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-14.5 (EV +55.8%)
#2 NFL LAC @ KC Sun 01:25 PM
LAC +20.5
Best spread · book line LAC +8.5
EV+0.2%
Model83%
Price82¢
Pays1.20x
Score2.6
Best totalUnder 55.5book Under 41.585% · 87¢ · EV -2.7%
Bets
42%
Money
46%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
LAC +20.5 vs the book's +8.5: 12 extra points.
Line move
Opened +2.5, now +8.5.
Form L10
Home 4-6 (20.3-20.4) · Away 3-7 (17.5-21.7)
Head to head
0-2 (avg margin -4.5)
Rest
Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries
Home - · Away Tre' Harris WR (Doubtful); Brenen Thompson WR (Doubtful)
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-7.5 (EV +78.0%)
#6 NCAAF OKST @ HOU Sat 04:30 PM
Under 78.5
Best total · book line Under 62.5
EV+1.5%
Model86%
Price84¢
Pays1.18x
Score2.4
Best spreadOKST +16.5book OKST +4.576% · 79¢ · EV -4.8%
Bets
60%
Money
53%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV +1.5%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 78.5 vs the book's 62.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 53 combined vs the book's 62.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 57.5, now 62.5.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (35.0-22.8) · Away 4-6 (24.5-23.8)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +22.0)
Rest
Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.3d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
42.5 (EV +5.0%)
#6 NHL PHI @ DET Thu 04:30 PM
Under 8.5
Best total · book line Under 5.5
EV+0.5%
Model86%
Price85¢
Pays1.16x
Score1.8
Bets
3%
Money
3%
Pinnacle-basedPHI backup goalieDET backup goalie
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.5%, about fair).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -118 / Under +105).
Goalies
PHI backup goalie; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
PHI: Joseph Woll, confirmed, backup, 0.914 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%
Best-value line
2.5 (EV +62.3%)
#7 NCAAF ELO @ STAN Sat 04:30 PM
ELO +48.5
Best spread · book line ELO +35.5
EV+0.5%
Model89%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score1.8
Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 56.585% · 86¢ · EV -1.6%
Bets
0%
Money
0%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV +0.5%, about fair).
Cushion
ELO +48.5 vs the book's +35.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +32.5, now +35.5.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (18.0-36.3) · Away 6-4 (28.6-19.7)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7.2d rest · Away 7.2d rest
Best-value line
+16.5 (EV +74.3%)
#8 NCAAF KU @ KSU Sat 09:00 AM
Over 40.5
Best total · book line Over 55.5
EV–
Model82%
Price–
Pays–
Score1.5
Best spreadKSU +7.5book KSU -4.577% · no price · EV –
Bets
55%
Money
58%
No Kalshi market
Why this bet & matchup notes
Cushion
Over 40.5 vs the book's 55.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 54.8 combined vs the book's 55.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 54.5, now 55.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (32.5-22.7) · Away 3-7 (27.8-26.5)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +25.0)
Rest
Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, steam
#3 NFL BUF @ LV Sun 01:25 PM
LV +16.5
Best spread · book line LV +4.5
EV-2.6%
Model81%
Price82¢
Pays1.20x
Score1.4
Best totalUnder 68.5book Under 53.587% · 87¢ · EV -0.4%
Bets
48%
Money
62%
Reverse line moveSharp money +14
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you).
Cushion
LV +16.5 vs the book's +4.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money
62% of the money on 48% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +6.5, now +4.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 4-6 (19.4-25.3) · Away 8-2 (30.8-24.7)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7.1d rest · Away 5.8d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-7.5 (EV +43.3%)
#9 NCAAF CIN @ WVU Sat 09:00 AM
Under 78.5
Best total · book line Under 63.5
EV+0.7%
Model84%
Price82¢
Pays1.20x
Score0.1
Best spreadCIN +13.5book CIN +1.577% · 83¢ · EV -8.0%
Bets
66%
Money
61%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.7%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 78.5 vs the book's 63.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 60.5 combined vs the book's 63.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 61.5, now 63.5.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (31.5-32.7) · Away 5-5 (28.5-28.2)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 13.5d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
69.5 (EV +0.7%)
#7 NHL SJ @ NSH Thu 05:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV-0.2%
Model89%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score-0.2
Bets
95%
Money
96%
Public sidePinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side
95% of bets are on this side (money 96%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over +103 / Under -116).
Form L10
Home 3-7 (2.5-3.2) · Away 5-5 (3.0-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 1.9d rest
Starters
SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.896 SV% | NSH: Juuse Saros, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.897 SV%
Best-value line
7.5 (EV +13.6%)
#10 NCAAF FLA @ TEX Sat 09:00 AM
FLA +23.5
Best spread · book line FLA +11.5
EV-1.4%
Model79%
Price79¢
Pays1.25x
Score-0.6
Best totalUnder 66.5book Under 51.581% · 85¢ · EV -5.9%
Bets
64%
Money
74%
Sharp money +10
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion
FLA +23.5 vs the book's +11.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money
74% of the money on 64% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +9.5, now +11.5.
Form L10
Home 8-2 (32.5-23.8) · Away 5-5 (33.2-29.8)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -8.0)
Rest
Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-13.5 (EV +41.9%)
#4 NFL BAL @ CLE Sun 10:00 AM
Under 56.5
Best total · book line Under 41.5
EV-2.9%
Model86%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score-0.8
Best spreadCLE +16.5book CLE +482% · 84¢ · EV -3.5%
Bets
19%
Money
31%
Reverse line moveSharp money +12
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -2.9%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 56.5 vs the book's 41.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 45.2 combined vs the book's 41.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money
31% of the money on 19% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened 44.5, now 41.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 5-5 (17.8-22.1) · Away 6-4 (28.1-22.4)
Head to head
0-2 (avg margin -15.5)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Injuries
Home - · Away Raheim Sanders RB (Out); KC Concepcion WR (Doubtful)
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
20.5 (EV +6.9%)
#5 NFL CAR @ PHI Sun 10:00 AM
Under 54.5
Best total · book line Under 38.5
EV-3.2%
Model87%
Price89¢
Pays1.11x
Score-0.8
Best spreadCAR +9.5book CAR -3.582% · 87¢ · EV -6.8%
Bets
19%
Money
33%
Reverse line moveSharp money +14
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -3.2%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 54.5 vs the book's 38.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 42.7 combined vs the book's 38.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp money
33% of the money on 19% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened 43.5, now 38.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 5-5 (20.1-18.8) · Away 4-6 (22.5-24.0)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7.1d rest · Away 13.7d rest
Injuries
Home - · Away Jalen Hurts QB (Out); Will Shipley RB (Out)
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
21.5 (EV +8.4%)
#6 NFL DAL @ GB Sun 05:20 PM
Under 67.5
Best total · book line Under 53
EV+0.6%
Model86%
Price85¢
Pays1.16x
Score-0.8
Best spreadDAL +13.5book DAL +1.582% · 85¢ · EV -4.9%
Bets
25%
Money
19%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 67.5 vs the book's 53: 14.5 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 50.5 combined vs the book's 53, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 51.5, now 53.
Form L10
Home 4-6 (20.1-24.6) · Away 3-7 (25.8-30.5)
Head to head
0-1-0 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest
Home 7.3d rest · Away 10d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line
34.5 (EV +4.5%)
#11 NCAAF BAMA @ TENN Sat 12:30 PM
TENN +20.5
Best spread · book line TENN +7.5
EV+0.9%
Model80%
Price78¢
Pays1.26x
Score-1.0
Best totalOver 35.5book Over 50.584% · 87¢ · EV -4.2%
Bets
32%
Money
23%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV +0.9%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TENN +20.5 vs the book's +7.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +1.5, now +7.5.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (33.2-19.1) · Away 7-3 (37.6-19.5)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -17.0)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-14.5 (EV +86.9%)
#8 NFL SEA @ DEN Thu 05:15 PM
Under 54.5
Best total · book line Under 40.5
EV-2.1%
Model84%
Price85¢
Pays1.16x
Score-1.1
Best spreadSEA +9.5book SEA -2.582% · 84¢ · EV -3.8%
Bets
16%
Money
21%
Reverse line moveHome short weekAway short weekPinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.1%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 54.5 vs the book's 40.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 43.2 combined vs the book's 40.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 43.5, now 40.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 40.5 (Over -108 / Under -104).
Form L10
Home 7-3 (21.4-20.4) · Away 8-2 (26.7-18.0)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 4.2d rest, short week · Away 4.2d rest, short week
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
21.5 (EV +38.5%)
#12 NCAAF GT @ VT Sat 12:30 PM
GT +21.5
Best spread · book line GT +10
EV-0.3%
Model78%
Price77¢
Pays1.28x
Score-1.1
Best totalUnder 69.5book Under 55.581% · 82¢ · EV -2.7%
Bets
74%
Money
74%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 77¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
GT +21.5 vs the book's +10: 11.5 extra points.
Line move
Opened +9.5, now +10.
Form L10
Home 4-6 (28.0-24.7) · Away 4-6 (28.6-28.5)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -15.0)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-14.5 (EV +86.2%)
#13 NCAAF RUT @ UMD Sat 09:30 AM
Under 71.5
Best total · book line Under 56.5
EV-0.8%
Model83%
Price83¢
Pays1.19x
Score-1.2
Best spreadRUT +17.5book RUT +577% · 82¢ · EV -7.0%
Bets
62%
Money
66%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -0.8%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 71.5 vs the book's 56.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (26.6-19.0) · Away 3-7 (27.0-32.2)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 13.7d rest
Best-value line
77.5 (EV +2.6%)
#14 NCAAF ARST @ USM Sat 04:00 PM
Under 76.5
Best total · book line Under 62.5
EV+0.2%
Model82%
Price81¢
Pays1.22x
Score-1.4
Best spreadUSM +20.5book USM +780% · 82¢ · EV -3.1%
Bets
73%
Money
69%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV +0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
Under 76.5 vs the book's 62.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 57.4 combined vs the book's 62.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 56.5, now 62.5.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (27.5-32.6) · Away 4-6 (27.3-27.3)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest
Home 11d rest · Away 9d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
43.5 (EV +8.9%)
#15 EPL AVL @ NEW Sat 09:30 AM
Over 0.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV-0.8%
Model96%
Price96¢
Pays1.04x
Score-1.5
Bets
91%
Money
94%
Public side
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 96%; Kalshi charges 96¢ (EV -0.8%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 0.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side
91% of bets are on this side (money 94%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Form L10
Home 4-3-3 (1.7-1.8) · Away 3-3-4 (1.5-1.8)
Head to head
0-1-1 (avg margin -1.0)
Rest
Home 4.9d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
5.5 (EV -0.3%)
#7 NFL HOU @ JAC Sun 06:30 AM
Over 27.5
Best total · book line Over 42.5
EV-3.5%
Model87%
Price90¢
Pays1.10x
Score-1.9
Best spreadJAC +9.5book JAC -2.582% · 84¢ · EV -3.3%
Bets
45%
Money
59%
Reverse line moveSharp money +14
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.5%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 27.5 vs the book's 42.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 42.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp money
59% of the money on 45% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened 40.5, now 42.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 9-1 (30.5-15.3) · Away 6-4 (25.1-20.9)
Head to head
1-1 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Injuries
Home - · Away David Montgomery RB (Out); Tank Dell WR (Out)
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
51.5 (EV +4.7%)
#2 NCAAF MEM @ TULN Fri 04:30 PM
Under 70.5
Best total · book line Under 55.5
EV+0.6%
Model84%
Price82¢
Pays1.20x
Score-2.0
Best spreadTULN +20.5book TULN +780% · 81¢ · EV -1.9%
Bets
40%
Money
31%
Pinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV +0.6%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 70.5 vs the book's 55.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 55.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 54.5, now 55.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 55.5 (Over -106 / Under -110).
Form L10
Home 7-3 (26.3-20.3) · Away 6-4 (34.5-23.6)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest
Home 6.3d rest · Away 6d rest
Best-value line
34.5 (EV +5.9%)
#16 NCAAF LT @ ULM Sat 05:00 PM
ULM +27.5
Best spread · book line ULM +15.5
EV-3.4%
Model77%
Price79¢
Pays1.25x
Score-2.4
Best totalOver 39.5book Over 55.585% · 90¢ · EV -5.7%
Bets
46%
Money
68%
Sharp money +22
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 79¢ (EV -3.4%, priced against you).
Cushion
ULM +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money
68% of the money on 46% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +14.5, now +15.5.
Form L10
Home 0-10 (20.2-39.0) · Away 6-4 (33.4-27.2)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-7.5 (EV +34.3%)
#17 NCAAF FSU @ MIA Sat 04:00 PM
Under 72.5
Best total · book line Under 56.5
EV-1.0%
Model85%
Price85¢
Pays1.16x
Score-2.5
Best spreadFSU +33.5book FSU +21.579% · 79¢ · EV -2.0%
Bets
47%
Money
50%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 72.5 vs the book's 56.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 52.4 combined vs the book's 56.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 53.5, now 56.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (41.9-11.6) · Away 4-6 (26.2-25.1)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +6.0)
Rest
Home 14d rest · Away 8d rest
Best-value line
36.5 (EV +17.9%)
#18 EPL LFC @ BRE Sat 07:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV-2.0%
Model80%
Price80¢
Pays1.23x
Score-2.5
Bets
9%
Money
10%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 3 combined vs the book's 2.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 3.5, now 2.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 3-6-1 (1.8-1.2) · Away 2-5-3 (1.3-1.6)
Head to head
1-1-0 (avg margin +0.5)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 5.9d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
5.5 (EV -1.3%)
#19 NCAAF UVA @ SMU Sat 09:00 AM
Under 67.5
Best total · book line Under 51.5
EV-2.2%
Model84%
Price85¢
Pays1.16x
Score-3.2
Best spreadUVA +21.5book UVA +9.579% · 80¢ · EV -2.7%
Bets
40%
Money
41%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.2%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 67.5 vs the book's 51.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 50.1 combined vs the book's 51.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 55.5, now 51.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 7-3 (32.9-20.5) · Away 6-4 (28.7-18.2)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 14d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
34.5 (EV +3.6%)
#9 NHL UTA @ EDM Thu 06:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV-1.0%
Model91%
Price91¢
Pays1.09x
Score-3.5
Bets
98%
Money
99%
Public sidePinnacle-basedEDM backup goalie
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side
98% of bets are on this side (money 99%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -117 / Under +104).
Goalies
EDM backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (4.1-2.4) · Away 6-4 (3.6-3.1)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.7)
Rest
Home 1.9d rest, road game #3 · Away 2d rest
Starters
UTA: Karel Vejmelka, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.895 SV% | EDM: Devon Levi, confirmed, backup, 0.903 SV%
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
9.5 (EV +16.9%)
#10 NHL VAN @ FLA Thu 04:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV-1.3%
Model88%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score-4.6
Bets
98%
Money
99%
Public sidePinnacle-basedVAN backup goalieFLA backup goalie
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 7 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side
98% of bets are on this side (money 99%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -111 / Under -101), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies
VAN backup goalie; FLA backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (3.6-2.5) · Away 3-7 (3.1-4.7)
Head to head
1-1 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest, road game #5
Starters
VAN: Leevi Merilainen, confirmed, backup, 0.926 SV% | FLA: Akira Schmid, confirmed, backup, 0.875 SV%
Best-value line
9.5 (EV +13.6%)
#11 MLB MIL @ LAD Thu 05:00 PM
Under 11.5
Best total · book line Under 8
EV-1.3%
Model81%
Price81¢
Pays1.22x
Score-4.6
Best spreadLAD -1.5book LAD -1.540% · 40¢ · EV -3.9%
Bets
17%
Money
18%
Pinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 11.5 vs the book's 8: 3.5 runs of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 8, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 7.5, now 8.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 8 (Over -102 / Under -111).
Form L10
Home 6-4 (3.2-2.7) · Away 9-1 (4.5-2.7)
Head to head
3-13 (avg margin -1.3)
Rest
Home 1d rest · Away 1d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
4.5 (EV +3.6%)
#12 NCAAF GASO @ ODU Thu 04:30 PM
Under 60.5
Best total · book line Under 45.5
EV-2.7%
Model83%
Price84¢
Pays1.18x
Score-4.9
Best spreadODU +14.5book ODU +378% · 81¢ · EV -5.5%
Bets
23%
Money
25%
Reverse line moveAway short weekPinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 60.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 48 combined vs the book's 45.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 52.5, now 45.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 45.5 (Over -103 / Under -114).
Form L10
Home 6-4 (24.5-19.1) · Away 5-5 (25.2-27.3)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +35.0)
Rest
Home 5.3d rest · Away 5d rest, short week
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
30.5 (EV +17.8%)
#20 NCAAF PSU @ MICH Sat 12:30 PM
PSU +20.5
Best spread · book line PSU +7
EV-2.6%
Model82%
Price83¢
Pays1.19x
Score-4.9
Best totalUnder 57.5book Under 42.581% · 85¢ · EV -5.4%
Bets
73%
Money
84%
Sharp money +11
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you).
Cushion
PSU +20.5 vs the book's +7: 13.5 extra points.
Sharp money
84% of the money on 73% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +6.5, now +7.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (24.5-18.4) · Away 6-4 (31.2-19.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 14.1d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-11.5 (EV +77.5%)
#8 NFL NYJ @ NE Sun 10:00 AM
Under 59.5
Best total · book line Under 43.5
EV-1.0%
Model88%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score-5.0
Best spreadNYJ +20.5book NYJ +7.582% · 84¢ · EV -3.4%
Bets
25%
Money
23%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 59.5 vs the book's 43.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 45 combined vs the book's 43.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 42.5, now 43.5.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (28.2-18.8) · Away 2-8 (14.7-28.4)
Head to head
2-0 (avg margin +22.5)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries
Home - · Away Breece Hall RB (Doubtful); Adonai Mitchell WR (Doubtful); TreVeyon Henderson RB (Doubtful); Kenyon Sadiq TE (Doubtful)
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
23.5 (EV +25.6%)
#21 EPL HUL @ FUL Sat 07:00 AM
Under 4.5
Best total · book line Under 2.5
EV-2.3%
Model84%
Price85¢
Pays1.16x
Score-5.1
Bets
9%
Money
17%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.3%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 4.5 vs the book's 2.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 2.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Form L10
Home 1-3-6 (0.9-1.5) · Away 2-3-1 (1.3-1.0)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 6d rest
Best-value line
5.5 (EV -1.5%)
#9 NFL CHI @ ATL Sun 10:00 AM
Under 65.5
Best total · book line Under 51.5
EV-0.6%
Model86%
Price86¢
Pays1.15x
Score-5.2
Best spreadCHI +10.5book CHI -1.582% · 83¢ · EV -2.7%
Bets
31%
Money
25%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.6%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 65.5 vs the book's 51.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 46.3 combined vs the book's 51.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 47.5, now 51.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (22.9-24.7) · Away 5-5 (24.7-20.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 6.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries
Home - · Away Kyle Monangai RB (Doubtful)
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
44.5 (EV +9.9%)
#22 NCAAF MIZ @ MISS Sat 12:30 PM
Under 74.5
Best total · book line Under 58.5
EV-1.0%
Model84%
Price84¢
Pays1.18x
Score-5.5
Best spreadMISS +6.5book MISS -5.576% · 81¢ · EV -7.8%
Bets
53%
Money
50%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -1.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 74.5 vs the book's 58.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 56.2 combined vs the book's 58.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 57.5, now 58.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (37.9-22.3) · Away 7-3 (31.8-20.5)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
50.5 (EV +1.1%)
#13 NHL STL @ MIN Thu 05:00 PM
Under 8.5
Best total · book line Under 5.5
EV-1.3%
Model83%
Price83¢
Pays1.19x
Score-5.7
Bets
3%
Money
2%
Pinnacle-basedSTL goalie unconfirmed
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -1.3%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.5 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -102 / Under -110), vs 5.5 at other books.
Goalies
STL goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (2.8-2.6) · Away 7-3 (4.4-3.2)
Head to head
1-2 (avg margin +0.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
STL: Joel Hofer, expected, #1 goalie, 0.921 SV% | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.933 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Torey Krug D (Out); Nico Sturm F (Out)
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
2.5 (EV +28.2%)
#23 NCAAF TCU @ BAY Sat 04:00 PM
Under 64.5
Best total · book line Under 48.5
EV-2.4%
Model85%
Price86¢
Pays1.15x
Score-6.0
Best spreadTCU +17.5book TCU +677% · 81¢ · EV -5.6%
Bets
16%
Money
13%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 64.5 vs the book's 48.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 48.1 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 52.5, now 48.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 5-5 (29.3-24.2) · Away 5-5 (24.2-18.5)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -6.0)
Rest
Home 13.9d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
28.5 (EV +15.6%)
#1 NFL WAS @ SF Mon 05:15 PM
Under 65.5
Best total · book line Under 51.5
EV-1.6%
Model85%
Price86¢
Pays1.15x
Score-6.1
Best spreadWAS +20.5book WAS +7.583% · 83¢ · EV -1.3%
Bets
32%
Money
33%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -1.6%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 65.5 vs the book's 51.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 50 combined vs the book's 51.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 50.5, now 51.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (31.0-20.3) · Away 3-1-6 (20.9-27.7)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 8.2d rest · Away 8.3d rest
Injuries
Home - · Away Deebo Samuel WR (Out)
Best-value line
44.5 (EV +1.2%)
#24 EPL CHE @ EVE Sat 04:30 AM
Over 2.5
Best total · book line Over 2.5
EV-1.7%
Model59%
Price58¢
Pays1.67x
Score-6.4
Bets
94%
Money
95%
Public side
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 59%; Kalshi charges 58¢ (EV -1.7%, priced against you).
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 2.5, which supports this pick.
Public side
94% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Form L10
Home 2-6-2 (1.4-1.4) · Away 4-2-4 (2.0-2.0)
Head to head
1-1 (avg margin +0.5)
Rest
Home 5.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
#25 NCAAF UNC @ DUKE Sat 12:30 PM
Under 63.5
Best total · book line Under 47.5
EV-3.0%
Model84%
Price86¢
Pays1.15x
Score-6.5
Best spreadDUKE +9.5book DUKE -378% · 84¢ · EV -7.9%
Bets
22%
Money
23%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 63.5 vs the book's 47.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 49.5 combined vs the book's 47.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 54.5, now 47.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 7-3 (32.9-22.0) · Away 5-5 (22.0-22.2)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line
30.5 (EV +5.1%)
#14 NHL CGY @ VGK Thu 07:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV-1.8%
Model87%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score-6.7
Bets
98%
Money
99%
Public sidePinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.8%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.1 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side
98% of bets are on this side (money 99%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -118 / Under +105), vs 6.5 at other books.
Form L10
Home 8-2 (4.0-2.3) · Away 3-7 (2.1-3.8)
Head to head
3-1 (avg margin +1.8)
Rest
Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
CGY: Dustin Wolf, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.839 SV% | VGK: Carter Hart, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.906 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Parker Wotherspoon D (Out)
Best-value line
7.5 (EV +3.7%)
#26 NCAAF FAU @ ARMY Sat 09:00 AM
Under 68.5
Best total · book line Under 54.5
EV-1.5%
Model81%
Price81¢
Pays1.22x
Score-6.7
Best spreadARMY +9.5book ARMY -2.577% · 80¢ · EV -5.5%
Bets
54%
Money
53%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.5%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 68.5 vs the book's 54.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 55 combined vs the book's 54.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 59.5, now 54.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (25.5-19.3) · Away 5-5 (33.0-32.1)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 13.8d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
74.5 (EV +0.7%)
#15 NHL WPG @ CHI Thu 05:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV-1.7%
Model87%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score-7.0
Bets
97%
Money
97%
Public sidePinnacle-basedWPG backup goalie
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -1.7%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.6 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Public side
97% of bets are on this side (money 97%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move
Opened 5.5, now 6.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -110 / Under -102), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies
WPG backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (2.6-4.1) · Away 4-6 (2.5-4.1)
Head to head
1-3 (avg margin -0.8)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
WPG: Stuart Skinner, confirmed, backup, 0.917 SV% | CHI: Spencer Knight, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.885 SV%
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
9.5 (EV +9.0%)
#16 NHL NYR @ NJ Thu 04:00 PM
Over 2.5
Best total · book line Over 6
EV-2.7%
Model95%
Price97¢
Pays1.03x
Score-7.1
Bets
86%
Money
93%
Public sidePinnacle-basedNYR backup goalieNJ backup goalie
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 95%; Kalshi charges 97¢ (EV -2.7%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 2.5 vs the book's 6: 3.5 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.8 combined vs the book's 6, which works against this pick.
Public side
86% of bets are on this side (money 93%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move
Opened 5.5, now 6.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -115 / Under +102).
Goalies
NYR backup goalie; NJ backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (2.7-3.7) · Away 7-3 (3.3-1.9)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
NYR: Dylan Garand, confirmed, backup, 0.951 SV% | NJ: Nico Daws, confirmed, backup, 0.908 SV%
Best-value line
7.5 (EV +7.7%)
#27 NCAAF TOL @ EMU Sat 12:30 PM
Under 68.5
Best total · book line Under 53.5
EV-1.6%
Model84%
Price84¢
Pays1.18x
Score-7.1
Best spreadTOL +5.5book TOL -6.577% · 82¢ · EV -6.9%
Bets
42%
Money
41%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -1.6%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 68.5 vs the book's 53.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 48.9 combined vs the book's 53.5, which supports this pick.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (23.0-23.4) · Away 8-2 (34.5-16.9)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
32.5 (EV +19.0%)
#10 NFL PIT @ TB Sun 10:00 AM
Under 55.5
Best total · book line Under 39.5
EV-3.3%
Model88%
Price90¢
Pays1.10x
Score-7.2
Best spreadPIT +9.5book PIT -2.581% · 85¢ · EV -5.5%
Bets
18%
Money
20%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.3%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 55.5 vs the book's 39.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 42.8 combined vs the book's 39.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 45.5, now 39.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 2-8 (20.1-22.2) · Away 7-3 (22.7-20.7)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 9.7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries
Home - · Away Ben Skowronek WR (Out); Roman Wilson WR (Out)
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
19.5 (EV +23.0%)
#11 NFL NO @ NYG Sun 10:00 AM
Under 60.5
Best total · book line Under 45.5
EV-1.4%
Model87%
Price87¢
Pays1.14x
Score-7.2
Best spreadNO +10.5book NO -1.581% · 83¢ · EV -4.0%
Bets
29%
Money
26%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 60.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 45.9 combined vs the book's 45.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 44.5, now 45.5.
Form L10
Home 5-1-4 (22.6-21.1) · Away 5-5 (24.2-23.9)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -12.0)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line
24.5 (EV +10.8%)
#28 NCAAF UNLV @ AFA Sat 12:30 PM
Under 63.5
Best total · book line Under 48.5
EV-2.0%
Model83%
Price84¢
Pays1.18x
Score-7.9
Best spreadUNLV +11.5book UNLV -177% · 83¢ · EV -8.1%
Bets
24%
Money
24%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 84¢ (EV -2.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 63.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 46.1 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (24.8-19.0) · Away 7-3 (26.8-21.6)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -3.0)
Rest
Home 6.8d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
27.5 (EV +16.6%)
#29 NCAAF MSST @ LSU Sat 09:00 AM
MSST +27.5
Best spread · book line MSST +15.5
EV-0.3%
Model79%
Price78¢
Pays1.26x
Score-8.8
Best totalUnder 72.5book Under 57.583% · 85¢ · EV -3.9%
Bets
75%
Money
60%
Public side
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
MSST +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Public side
75% of bets are on this side (money 60%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move
Opened +10.5, now +15.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (31.0-18.0) · Away 5-5 (33.8-34.8)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 6.7d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals
steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
+1.5 (EV +30.0%)
#17 NHL SEA @ TB Thu 04:00 PM
Over 3.5
Best total · book line Over 6.5
EV-2.4%
Model87%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score-9.1
Bets
97%
Money
98%
Public sidePinnacle-basedSEA goalie unconfirmed
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -2.4%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.8 combined vs the book's 6.5, which works against this pick.
Public side
97% of bets are on this side (money 98%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6 (Over -116 / Under +104), vs 6.5 at other books.
Goalies
SEA goalie unconfirmed. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (2.6-2.6) · Away 5-5 (3.3-3.0)
Head to head
1-1 (avg margin +1.5)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest, road game #4
Starters
SEA: Joey Daccord, expected, #1 goalie, 0.913 SV% | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.886 SV%
Best-value line
9.5 (EV +3.1%)
#3 NCAAF APP @ CC Fri 05:00 PM
Over 33.5
Best total · book line Over 48.5
EV-2.5%
Model86%
Price87¢
Pays1.14x
Score-9.7
Best spreadCC +13.5book CC +1.579% · 82¢ · EV -5.3%
Bets
74%
Money
75%
Pinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -2.5%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 33.5 vs the book's 48.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 61.6 combined vs the book's 48.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 53.5, now 48.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 48.5 (Over -108 / Under -108).
Form L10
Home 6-4 (38.6-33.6) · Away 4-6 (25.1-26.0)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 13.3d rest · Away 6.3d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
63.5 (EV +15.5%)
#30 NCAAF GAST @ JMU Sat 09:00 AM
GAST +23.5
Best spread · book line GAST +10.5
EV-4.9%
Model78%
Price81¢
Pays1.22x
Score-9.9
Best totalUnder 73.5book Under 57.584% · 86¢ · EV -3.1%
Bets
46%
Money
55%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -4.9%, priced against you).
Cushion
GAST +23.5 vs the book's +10.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +12.5, now +10.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 10-0 (42.3-14.4) · Away 4-6 (30.2-26.1)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest
Home 6.7d rest · Away 13.9d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-10.5 (EV +55.3%)
#31 NCAAF AUB @ UGA Sat 12:30 PM
AUB +33.5
Best spread · book line AUB +20.5
EV-1.4%
Model81%
Price81¢
Pays1.22x
Score-10.1
Best totalUnder 65.5book Under 49.584% · 86¢ · EV -3.4%
Bets
37%
Money
28%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -1.4%, priced against you).
Cushion
AUB +33.5 vs the book's +20.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +16.5, now +20.5.
Form L10
Home 10-0 (39.1-11.3) · Away 5-5 (29.0-23.0)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +10.0)
Rest
Home 6.8d rest · Away 14d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-3.5 (EV +60.8%)
#32 EPL IPS @ MCI Sat 07:00 AM
Over 1.5
Best total · book line Over 3.5
EV-2.5%
Model87%
Price89¢
Pays1.11x
Score-10.2
Bets
95%
Money
95%
Public side
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -2.5%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 1.5 vs the book's 3.5: 2 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 3.4 combined vs the book's 3.5, which works against this pick.
Public side
95% of bets are on this side (money 95%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Form L10
Home 8-1-1 (2.4-0.8) · Away 3-3 (1.5-2.0)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 5.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line
0.5 (EV -0.9%)
#33 NCAAF OSU @ IU Sat 09:00 AM
Under 64.5
Best total · book line Under 50.5
EV-3.0%
Model81%
Price83¢
Pays1.19x
Score-10.5
Best spreadIU +16.5book IU +3.579% · 83¢ · EV -5.6%
Bets
39%
Money
42%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 81%; Kalshi charges 83¢ (EV -3.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 64.5 vs the book's 50.5: 14 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 49.3 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 48.5, now 50.5.
Form L10
Home 10-0 (36.8-11.5) · Away 8-2 (38.3-12.0)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +3.0)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 6.8d rest
Best-value line
28.5 (EV +17.7%)
#34 NCAAF ND @ BYU Sat 04:30 PM
ND +1.5
Best spread · book line ND -10.5
EV-5.2%
Model77%
Price80¢
Pays1.23x
Score-10.6
Best totalUnder 62.5book Under 46.582% · 87¢ · EV -6.1%
Bets
36%
Money
46%
Reverse line moveSharp money +10
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -5.2%, priced against you).
Cushion
ND +1.5 vs the book's -10.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money
46% of the money on 36% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened -10, now -10.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 8-2 (29.8-17.8) · Away 10-0 (46.9-11.8)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7.9d rest · Away 7.2d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-30.5 (EV +7.8%)
#12 NFL TEN @ IND Sun 10:00 AM
Over 29.5
Best total · book line Over 44.5
EV-3.3%
Model88%
Price90¢
Pays1.10x
Score-10.9
Best spreadTEN +20.5book TEN +786% · 87¢ · EV -2.4%
Bets
76%
Money
81%
Public side
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 90¢ (EV -3.3%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 29.5 vs the book's 44.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 48.2 combined vs the book's 44.5, which supports this pick.
Public side
76% of bets are on this side (money 81%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move
Opened 47.5, now 44.5.
Form L10
Home 2-8 (23.3-30.1) · Away 2-8 (17.2-25.9)
Head to head
2-0 (avg margin +22.5)
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Injuries
Home - · Away Ashton Dulin WR (Doubtful)
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
56.5 (EV -0.8%)
#35 NCAAF ASU @ TTU Sat 12:30 PM
ASU +27.5
Best spread · book line ASU +15.5
EV-4.0%
Model78%
Price80¢
Pays1.23x
Score-11.6
Best totalUnder 64.5book Under 49.582% · 85¢ · EV -4.2%
Bets
38%
Money
47%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 78%; Kalshi charges 80¢ (EV -4.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
ASU +27.5 vs the book's +15.5: 12 extra points.
Line move
Opened +12.5, now +15.5.
Form L10
Home 10-0 (37.7-12.4) · Away 6-4 (27.7-24.5)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -4.0)
Rest
Home 13.8d rest · Away 6.7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-10.5 (EV +46.1%)
#18 NCAAF ECU @ UAB Thu 04:30 PM
Under 65.5
Best total · book line Under 49.5
EV-4.9%
Model83%
Price87¢
Pays1.14x
Score-11.7
Best spreadUAB +16.5book UAB +4.576% · 79¢ · EV -5.6%
Bets
22%
Money
28%
Reverse line movePinnacle-based
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -4.9%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 65.5 vs the book's 49.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 53.9 combined vs the book's 49.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 54.5, now 49.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 49.5 (Over -105 / Under -111).
Form L10
Home 4-6 (22.3-30.4) · Away 7-3 (31.4-23.7)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 5d rest · Away 5.3d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
35.5 (EV +2.0%)
#36 NCAAF WMU @ CMU Sat 10:30 AM
Under 59.5
Best total · book line Under 43.5
EV-4.4%
Model85%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score-12.3
Best spreadCMU +20.5book CMU +779% · 84¢ · EV -6.5%
Bets
19%
Money
20%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -4.4%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 59.5 vs the book's 43.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 43 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 47.5, now 43.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 5-5 (19.2-23.8) · Away 8-2 (26.0-17.0)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -3.0)
Rest
Home 6.9d rest · Away 6.9d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, steam, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
23.5 (EV +30.1%)
#37 NCAAF AKR @ M-OH Sat 12:30 PM
AKR +21.5
Best spread · book line AKR +9.5
EV-5.1%
Model79%
Price82¢
Pays1.20x
Score-12.5
Best totalUnder 62.5book Under 46.583% · 88¢ · EV -6.3%
Bets
37%
Money
53%
Sharp money +16
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -5.1%, priced against you).
Cushion
AKR +21.5 vs the book's +9.5: 12 extra points.
Sharp money
53% of the money on 37% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (25.2-25.6) · Away 4-6 (24.0-27.7)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +13.0)
Rest
Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line
-11.5 (EV +115.3%)
#38 NCAAF NEV @ NDSU Sat 04:00 PM
NEV +27.5
Best spread · book line NEV +14.5
EV-3.1%
Model80%
Price81¢
Pays1.22x
Score-12.8
Best totalUnder 56.5book Under 42.580% · 84¢ · EV -6.1%
Bets
32%
Money
31%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -3.1%, priced against you).
Cushion
NEV +27.5 vs the book's +14.5: 13 extra points.
Form L10
Home 8-2 (32.8-12.4) · Away 4-6 (24.1-24.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-7.5 (EV +52.6%)
#39 NCAAF LOU @ SYR Sat 04:30 PM
Under 71.5
Best total · book line Under 55.5
EV-2.6%
Model84%
Price85¢
Pays1.16x
Score-12.9
Best spreadSYR +27.5book SYR +1579% · 80¢ · EV -2.5%
Bets
62%
Money
57%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -2.6%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 71.5 vs the book's 55.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 56.6 combined vs the book's 55.5, which works against this pick.
Form L10
Home 2-8 (21.9-33.0) · Away 4-6 (32.9-25.3)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest, road game #3 · Away 8d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
35.5 (EV +6.8%)
#40 NCAAF TROY @ UL Sat 02:00 PM
Under 64.5
Best total · book line Under 49.5
EV-3.7%
Model83%
Price85¢
Pays1.16x
Score-14.3
Best spreadTROY +16.5book TROY +3.578% · 83¢ · EV -6.9%
Bets
27%
Money
28%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 83%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV -3.7%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 64.5 vs the book's 49.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 51.4 combined vs the book's 49.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 47.5, now 49.5.
Form L10
Home 8-2 (31.4-24.7) · Away 5-5 (22.3-24.4)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -12.0)
Rest
Home 6.9d rest · Away 10.9d rest
Best-value line
28.5 (EV +12.2%)
#41 NCAAF NW @ MSU Sat 09:00 AM
MSU +20.5
Best spread · book line MSU +7
EV-3.9%
Model80%
Price82¢
Pays1.20x
Score-14.5
Best totalUnder 65.5book Under 49.584% · 87¢ · EV -3.8%
Bets
27%
Money
19%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 80%; Kalshi charges 82¢ (EV -3.9%, priced against you).
Cushion
MSU +20.5 vs the book's +7: 13.5 extra points.
Line move
Opened +7.5, now +7 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 3-7 (21.3-25.3) · Away 5-5 (28.8-22.6)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-14.5 (EV +55.2%)
#42 NCAAF WIS @ UCLA Sat 04:30 PM
Under 58.5
Best total · book line Under 43.5
EV-5.6%
Model82%
Price86¢
Pays1.15x
Score-14.6
Best spreadWIS +14.5book WIS +2.579% · 85¢ · EV -8.6%
Bets
12%
Money
18%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -5.6%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 58.5 vs the book's 43.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 47.3 combined vs the book's 43.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 49.5, now 43.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 5-5 (25.7-29.9) · Away 6-4 (21.9-17.2)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7.2d rest · Away 14.3d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line
22.5 (EV +41.8%)
#43 NCAAF BALL @ BGSU Sat 09:00 AM
Under 63.5
Best total · book line Under 47.5
EV-4.1%
Model84%
Price87¢
Pays1.14x
Score-18.0
Best spreadBALL +17.5book BALL +6.575% · 79¢ · EV -6.2%
Bets
21%
Money
18%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -4.1%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 63.5 vs the book's 47.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 48.3 combined vs the book's 47.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 44.5, now 47.5.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (18.0-26.3) · Away 2-8 (16.9-35.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move, steam
Best-value line
27.5 (EV +24.4%)
#44 NCAAF ARK @ VAN Sat 04:00 PM
Over 34.5
Best total · book line Over 50.5
EV-4.0%
Model85%
Price88¢
Pays1.13x
Score-18.7
Best spreadVAN +6.5book VAN -677% · 83¢ · EV -7.9%
Bets
74%
Money
69%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 85%; Kalshi charges 88¢ (EV -4.0%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 34.5 vs the book's 50.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 56.9 combined vs the book's 50.5, which supports this pick.
Line move
Opened 48.5, now 50.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (31.0-29.0) · Away 2-8 (22.7-31.0)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7.1d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Best-value line
70.5 (EV +7.0%)
#45 NCAAF MASS @ BUFF Sat 10:00 AM
Under 57.5
Best total · book line Under 41.5
EV-6.3%
Model82%
Price87¢
Pays1.14x
Score-18.8
Best spreadMASS +17.5book MASS +6.576% · 80¢ · EV -5.8%
Bets
13%
Money
16%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -6.3%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 57.5 vs the book's 41.5: 16 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 49.6 combined vs the book's 41.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 47.5, now 41.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 4-6 (21.8-27.0) · Away 4-6 (21.9-28.5)
Head to head
1-0 (avg margin +7.0)
Rest
Home 6.9d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
24.5 (EV +19.9%)
#46 NCAAF TLSA @ RICE Sat 01:30 PM
RICE +16.5
Best spread · book line RICE +4
EV-7.1%
Model76%
Price81¢
Pays1.22x
Score-19.1
Best totalUnder 62.5book Under 46.583% · 87¢ · EV -5.2%
Bets
44%
Money
63%
Sharp money +19
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 76%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -7.2%, priced against you).
Cushion
RICE +16.5 vs the book's +4: 12.5 extra points.
Sharp money
63% of the money on 44% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +3, now +4.
Form L10
Home 2-8 (16.7-32.8) · Away 5-5 (26.7-25.0)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7.1d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line
-14.5 (EV +27.3%)
#47 NCAAF PITT @ BC Sat 09:00 AM
PITT +5.5
Best spread · book line PITT -6.5
EV-6.1%
Model77%
Price81¢
Pays1.22x
Score-20.4
Best totalUnder 58.5book Under 42.582% · 87¢ · EV -6.4%
Bets
61%
Money
69%
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 77%; Kalshi charges 81¢ (EV -6.1%, priced against you).
Cushion
PITT +5.5 vs the book's -6.5: 12 extra points.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (21.0-27.3) · Away 7-3 (30.8-21.1)
Head to head
0-1 (avg margin -41.0)
Rest
Home 14d rest · Away 7d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move, reverse_line_move
Best-value line
-21.5 (EV +24.8%)
#48 NCAAF KENT @ USF Sat 04:00 PM
Under 60.5
Best total · book line Under 45.5
EV-6.7%
Model82%
Price87¢
Pays1.14x
Score-21.3
Best spreadKENT +33.5book KENT +20.580% · 84¢ · EV -5.6%
Bets
16%
Money
17%
Reverse line move
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 82%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV -6.7%, priced against you).
Cushion
Under 60.5 vs the book's 45.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 51.6 combined vs the book's 45.5, which works against this pick.
Line move
Opened 49.5, now 45.5 against most of the bets (reverse line move).
Form L10
Home 7-3 (35.0-18.9) · Away 4-6 (18.8-30.6)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 9d rest · Away 7.1d rest
Signals
reverse_line_move
Best-value line
30.5 (EV +21.6%)
#49 NCAAF UK @ OU Sat 04:30 PM
Over 28.5
Best total · book line Over 43.5
EV-6.4%
Model84%
Price89¢
Pays1.11x
Score-25.6
Best spreadUK +17.5book UK +6.576% · 80¢ · EV -5.7%
Bets
89%
Money
89%
Public side
Why this bet & matchup notes
Price
Model gives it 84%; Kalshi charges 89¢ (EV -6.4%, priced against you).
Cushion
Over 28.5 vs the book's 43.5: 15 points of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 49.8 combined vs the book's 43.5, which supports this pick.
Public side
89% of bets are on this side (money 89%). Popular sides are often priced a little worse.
Line move
Opened 41.5, now 43.5.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (23.1-18.9) · Away 7-3 (30.5-27.1)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 7.2d rest · Away 7d rest
Best-value line
52.5 (EV +7.7%)

No picks match these filters.

Parlays: Today

Top 2-leg EV+1.9%
  • #1 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
  • #2 NBA HOU +16.5 OKC @ HOU
Pays1.34x
Needs75%
Model hits76%
Why these bets

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

HOU +16.5 · OKC @ HOU

Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
HOU +16.5 vs the book's +3.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
69% of the money on 51% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +3.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head
1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a
Signals
steam
Top 3-leg EV+1.7%
  • #1 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
  • #2 NBA HOU +16.5 OKC @ HOU
  • #3 NHL Over 3.5 BUF @ TOR
Pays1.46x
Needs68%
Model hits69%
Why these bets

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

HOU +16.5 · OKC @ HOU

Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
HOU +16.5 vs the book's +3.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
69% of the money on 51% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +3.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head
1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a
Signals
steam

Over 3.5 · BUF @ TOR

Price
Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.7 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp money
95% of the money on 79% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -127 / Under +113).
Goalies
BUF goalie unconfirmed; TOR backup goalie; TOR goalie unconfirmed. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (3.2-3.8) · Away 5-5 (3.2-3.1)
Head to head
1-3 (avg margin -1.2)
Rest
Home 1.9d rest, road game #3 · Away 2d rest
Starters
BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, expected, #1 goalie, 0.850 SV% | TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky, expected, backup, 0.907 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Matt Grzelcyk D (Out)
Top 4-leg EV+2.0%
  • #1 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
  • #2 NBA HOU +16.5 OKC @ HOU
  • #3 NHL Over 3.5 BUF @ TOR
  • #4 NCAAF CSU +27.5 CSU @ TXST
Pays1.85x
Needs54%
Model hits55%
Why these bets

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

HOU +16.5 · OKC @ HOU

Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
HOU +16.5 vs the book's +3.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
69% of the money on 51% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +3.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head
1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a
Signals
steam

Over 3.5 · BUF @ TOR

Price
Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.7 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp money
95% of the money on 79% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -127 / Under +113).
Goalies
BUF goalie unconfirmed; TOR backup goalie; TOR goalie unconfirmed. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (3.2-3.8) · Away 5-5 (3.2-3.1)
Head to head
1-3 (avg margin -1.2)
Rest
Home 1.9d rest, road game #3 · Away 2d rest
Starters
BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, expected, #1 goalie, 0.850 SV% | TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky, expected, backup, 0.907 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Matt Grzelcyk D (Out)

CSU +27.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price
Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
CSU +27.5 vs the book's +14.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
64% of the money on 53% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +9.5, now +14.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: CSU +15, vs +14.5 at other books.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals
steam, reverse_line_move
Top 5-leg EV+3.0%
  • #1 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
  • #2 NBA HOU +16.5 OKC @ HOU
  • #3 NHL Over 3.5 BUF @ TOR
  • #4 NCAAF CSU +27.5 CSU @ TXST
  • #5 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
Pays2.11x
Needs47%
Model hits49%
Why these bets

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

HOU +16.5 · OKC @ HOU

Price
Model gives it 87%; Kalshi charges 86¢ (EV -0.2%, about fair).
Cushion
HOU +16.5 vs the book's +3.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
69% of the money on 51% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +3.5.
Form L10
Home 9-1 (123.6-108.4) · Away 7-3 (121.1-110.8)
Head to head
1-2 (avg margin -5.0)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a
Signals
steam

Over 3.5 · BUF @ TOR

Price
Model gives it 91%; Kalshi charges 91¢ (EV -0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
Over 3.5 vs the book's 6.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6.7 combined vs the book's 6.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp money
95% of the money on 79% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 6.5 (Over -127 / Under +113).
Goalies
BUF goalie unconfirmed; TOR backup goalie; TOR goalie unconfirmed. A backup in net usually means more goals, which helps an Over and hurts an Under. Check the starter before betting; lines move when a goalie is confirmed.
Form L10
Home 3-7 (3.2-3.8) · Away 5-5 (3.2-3.1)
Head to head
1-3 (avg margin -1.2)
Rest
Home 1.9d rest, road game #3 · Away 2d rest
Starters
BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, expected, #1 goalie, 0.850 SV% | TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky, expected, backup, 0.907 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Matt Grzelcyk D (Out)

CSU +27.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price
Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
CSU +27.5 vs the book's +14.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
64% of the money on 53% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +9.5, now +14.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: CSU +15, vs +14.5 at other books.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals
steam, reverse_line_move

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies
NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)
Best-value 2-leg EV+3.2%
  • #1 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
  • #5 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
Pays1.33x
Needs75%
Model hits78%
Why these bets

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies
NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)
Best-value 3-leg EV+3.6%
  • #1 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
  • #5 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
  • #6 NHL Under 8.5 PHI @ DET
Pays1.54x
Needs65%
Model hits67%
Why these bets

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies
NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.5%, about fair).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -118 / Under +105).
Goalies
PHI backup goalie; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
PHI: Joseph Woll, confirmed, backup, 0.914 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%
Best-value 4-leg EV+4.0%
  • #1 NBA TOR +18.5 TOR @ NYK
  • #5 NHL Under 8.5 NYI @ OTT
  • #6 NHL Under 8.5 PHI @ DET
  • #4 NCAAF CSU +27.5 CSU @ TXST
Pays1.95x
Needs51%
Model hits53%
Why these bets

TOR +18.5 · TOR @ NYK

Price
Model gives it 88%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +2.1%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
TOR +18.5 vs the book's +5.5: 13 extra points.
Line move
Opened +4.5, now +5.5.
Form L10
Home 6-4 (111.2-108.3) · Away 6-4 (119.8-107.6)
Head to head
5-0 (avg margin +19.6)
Rest
Home n/a · Away n/a

Under 8.5 · NYI @ OTT

Price
Model gives it 89%; Kalshi charges 87¢ (EV +1.0%, priced in your favor).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 5.3 combined vs the book's 5.5, which supports this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -103 / Under -109).
Goalies
NYI backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 7-3 (3.0-2.4) · Away 4-6 (2.6-2.7)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
NYI: Semyon Varlamov, confirmed, backup, 0.864 SV% | OTT: Linus Ullmark, confirmed, #1 goalie, 0.948 SV%
Injuries
Home - · Away Nikolas Matinpalo D (Out)

Under 8.5 · PHI @ DET

Price
Model gives it 86%; Kalshi charges 85¢ (EV +0.5%, about fair).
Cushion
Under 8.5 vs the book's 5.5: 3 goals of room.
Recent scoring
These teams' last 10 games average about 6 combined vs the book's 5.5, which works against this pick.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's total of 5.5 (Over -118 / Under +105).
Goalies
PHI backup goalie; DET backup goalie. A backup in net usually means more goals, which works against an Under.
Form L10
Home 2-8 (2.7-4.0) · Away 2-8 (1.7-3.5)
Head to head
2-1 (avg margin +1.0)
Rest
Home 2.1d rest · Away 2d rest
Starters
PHI: Joseph Woll, confirmed, backup, 0.914 SV% | DET: Daniil Tarasov, confirmed, backup, 0.974 SV%

CSU +27.5 · CSU @ TXST

Price
Model gives it 79%; Kalshi charges 78¢ (EV +0.3%, about fair).
Cushion
CSU +27.5 vs the book's +14.5: 13 extra points.
Sharp money
64% of the money on 53% of the bets: bigger bettors are on this side.
Line move
Opened +9.5, now +14.5.
Sharp line
Model is set from Pinnacle's spread: CSU +15, vs +14.5 at other books.
Form L10
Home 5-5 (35.4-31.4) · Away 2-8 (25.6-37.4)
Head to head
no recent meetings
Rest
Home 11.9d rest · Away 12.1d rest
Signals
steam, reverse_line_move

Heavy-favorite add-ons

No heavy favorites meet the rules today.

Results

Chart appears after two graded days. So far: -1.00 units.

LeagueRecordWinUnits
MLB0-10%-1.00
PickFinal
L CLE -1.5
#30 MLB · TB @ CLE
 2-3

Your bets

No bets logged yet.

Missing matches

1 of our games have no Kalshi price · 113 Kalshi games didn't link

If a game appears in both lists under different names, it's a name mismatch. Send both names and they'll be added as an alias. Games only in our list usually just aren't on Kalshi yet.

Kalshi games not linked

  • Bournemouth vs Sunderland EPL · 2026-10-18 · BOU vs SUN
  • Brighton vs Crystal Palace EPL · 2026-10-18 · BRI vs CRY
  • Leeds United vs Manchester United EPL · 2026-10-18 · LEE vs MUN
  • Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal EPL · 2026-10-18 · NFO vs ARS
  • Tottenham vs Coventry EPL · 2026-10-19 · TOT vs COV
  • Tampa Bay vs Cleveland MLB · 2026-10-16 · TB vs CLE
  • Game 5: Tampa Bay vs Cleveland MLB · 2026-10-17 ·
  • Atlanta vs Dallas NBA · 2026-10-16 · ATL vs DAL
  • Boston vs Philadelphia NBA · 2026-10-16 · BOS vs PHI
  • Charlotte vs Memphis NBA · 2026-10-16 · CHA vs MEM
  • Denver vs Los Angeles L NBA · 2026-10-16 · DEN vs LAL
  • Miami vs Orlando NBA · 2026-10-16 · MIA vs ORL
  • Milwaukee vs Indiana NBA · 2026-10-16 · MIL vs IND
  • Minnesota vs Chicago NBA · 2026-10-16 · MIN vs CHI
  • Portland vs Golden State NBA · 2026-10-16 · POR vs GSW
  • Sacramento vs San Antonio NBA · 2026-10-16 · SAC vs SAS
  • Toronto vs Detroit NBA · 2026-10-16 · TOR vs DET
  • Utah vs Phoenix NBA · 2026-10-16 · UTA vs PHX
  • Washington vs New Orleans NBA · 2026-10-16 · WAS vs NOP
  • Boston vs Detroit NBA · 2026-10-20 · BOS vs DET
  • Oklahoma City vs San Antonio NBA · 2026-10-20 · OKC vs SAS
  • Philadelphia vs New York NBA · 2026-10-20 · PHI vs NYK
  • Charleston Southern vs Clemson NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · CHSO vs CLEM
  • Columbia vs Penn NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · CLMB vs PENN
  • Illinois St. vs Southern Illinois NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · ILST vs SIU
  • Louisiana Tech vs Louisiana-Monroe NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · LT vs ULM
  • Navy vs UTSA NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · NAVY vs UTSA
  • New Mexico vs Hawai'i NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · UNM vs HAW
  • Ohio vs Sacramento St. NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · OHIO vs SAC
  • Utah vs Colorado NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · UTAH vs COLO
  • Wake Forest vs California NCAAF · 2026-10-16 · WAKE vs CAL
  • Abilene Christian vs North Alabama NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · AC vs UNA
  • Alabama St. vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ALST vs ARPB
  • Alcorn St. vs Prairie View A&M NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ALCN vs PV
  • Austin Peay vs West Georgia NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · PEAY vs UWGA
  • Bethune-Cookman vs Mississippi Valley St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · COOK vs MVSU
  • Brown vs Princeton NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · BRWN vs PRIN
  • Bryant vs Maine NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · BRY vs ME
  • Cal Poly vs Northern Colorado NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CP vs UNCO
  • Central Arkansas vs Tarleton St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CARK vs TARL
  • Central Connecticut St. vs Mercyhurst NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CCSU vs MHU
  • Chicago St. vs North Carolina A&T NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · CHS vs NCAT
  • Dayton vs Butler NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · DAY vs BUT
  • Duquesne vs Stonehill NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · DUQ vs STNH
  • East Texas A&M vs Houston Christian NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ETAM vs HCU
  • Eastern Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · EKY vs TNTC
  • Florida A&M vs Jackson St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · FAMU vs JKST
  • Fresno St. vs San Diego St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · FRES vs SDSU
  • Gardner-Webb vs Tennessee-Martin NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · WEBB vs UTM
  • Georgetown vs Colgate NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · GTWN vs COLG
  • Grambling St. vs Alabama A&M NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · GRAM vs AAMU
  • Hampton vs Sacred Heart NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · HAMP vs SHU
  • Holy Cross vs Harvard NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · HC vs HARV
  • Idaho St. vs Weber St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · IDST vs WEB
  • Idaho vs Montana NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · IDHO vs MONT
  • Illinois St. vs Southern Illinois NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ILST vs SIU
  • Kansas vs Kansas St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · KU vs KSU
  • LIU vs Wagner NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LIU vs WAG
  • Lafayette vs Bucknell NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LAF vs BUCK
  • Lamar vs Southeastern Louisiana NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LAM vs SELA
  • Lehigh vs Cornell NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LEH vs COR
  • Lindenwood vs Eastern Illinois NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · LINW vs EIU
  • Marist vs Drake NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MRST vs DRKE
  • McNeese vs Northwestern St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MCNS vs NWST
  • Mercer vs Samford NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MER vs SAM
  • Merrimack vs Dartmouth NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MRMK vs DART
  • Monmouth vs New Hampshire NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MONM vs UNH
  • Montana St. vs Eastern Washington NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MTST vs EWU
  • Morehead St. vs Davidson NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MORE vs DAV
  • Morgan St. vs Tennessee St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · MORG vs TNST
  • Navy vs UTSA NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · NAVY vs UTSA
  • Nebraska vs Oregon NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · NEB vs ORE
  • New Haven vs Robert Morris NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · NHC vs RMU
  • New Mexico vs Hawai'i NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UNM vs HAW
  • Northern Iowa vs Youngstown St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UNI vs YSU
  • Ohio vs Sacramento St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · OHIO vs SAC
  • Portland St. vs Northern Arizona NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · PRST vs NAU
  • Presbyterian vs Stetson NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · PRE vs STET
  • Rhode Island vs Yale NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · URI vs YALE
  • San Jose St. vs UTEP NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SJSU vs UTEP
  • South Dakota St. vs North Dakota NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SDST vs UND
  • South Dakota vs Murray St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SDAK vs MURR
  • Stephen F. Austin vs Nicholls St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · SFA vs NICH
  • Towson vs Campbell NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · TOWS vs CAMP
  • UC Davis vs Southern Utah NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UCD vs SUU
  • UT Rio Grande Valley vs Incarnate Word NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UTRGV vs IW
  • University at Albany vs Stony Brook NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · ALBY vs STON
  • Utah vs Colorado NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · UTAH vs COLO
  • VMI vs Wofford NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · VMI vs WOF
  • Valparaiso vs San Diego NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · VALP vs USD
  • Villanova vs Fordham NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · VILL vs FOR
  • Wake Forest vs California NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · WAKE vs CAL
  • Western Illinois vs Southeast Missouri St. NCAAF · 2026-10-17 · WIU vs SEMO
  • Middle Tennessee vs Florida International NCAAF · 2026-10-20 · MTU vs FIU
  • Missouri St. vs Delaware NCAAF · 2026-10-20 · MOSU vs DEL
  • South Alabama vs Marshall NCAAF · 2026-10-20 · USA vs MRSH
  • Boston vs Anaheim NHL · 2026-10-16 · BOS vs ANA
  • Pittsburgh vs Colorado NHL · 2026-10-16 · PIT vs COL
  • Boston vs Los Angeles NHL · 2026-10-17 · BOS vs LA
  • Buffalo vs Montreal NHL · 2026-10-17 · BUF vs MTL
  • Carolina vs Winnipeg NHL · 2026-10-17 · CAR vs WPG
  • Dallas vs Chicago NHL · 2026-10-17 · DAL vs CHI
  • Edmonton vs Utah NHL · 2026-10-17 · EDM vs UTA
  • New Jersey vs Washington NHL · 2026-10-17 · NJ vs WSH
  • New York I vs Toronto NHL · 2026-10-17 · NYI vs TOR
  • New York R vs Columbus NHL · 2026-10-17 · NYR vs CBJ
  • Ottawa vs Philadelphia NHL · 2026-10-17 · OTT vs PHI
  • Pittsburgh vs Vegas NHL · 2026-10-17 · PIT vs VGK
  • San Jose vs Detroit NHL · 2026-10-17 · SJ vs DET
  • Seattle vs Florida NHL · 2026-10-17 · SEA vs FLA
  • St. Louis vs Nashville NHL · 2026-10-17 · STL vs NSH
  • Vancouver vs Tampa Bay NHL · 2026-10-17 · VAN vs TB
  • Columbus vs Minnesota NHL · 2026-10-18 · CBJ vs MIN

Our games without a Kalshi price

  • KU @ KSU NCAAF · Sat 09:00 AM · Kansas Jayhawks @ Kansas State Wildcats

EV = model win chance × Kalshi payout − 1. Positive means the price is in your favor by the model's estimate. Model numbers are estimates; check results over 100+ picks before trusting any pattern.